3 minute read

Racing and Sports Race Analyst, Simon Dinopoulos takes a look at the 2014 Caulfield Cup from a statistical perspective.

Battle Of The Ages - 4YO's

• On average - six 4YO's contest the Caulfield Cup every year, yet the number is considerably down this year, with only two set to line up: Lucia Valentina and Rising Romance

• The Caulfield Cup has often proven the domain of the progressive 4YO having provided 12 of the past 20 winners (60%) - yet only have providing 160 of 338 (39%) of the participants

Mares Record

Since the Caulfield Cup was transferred to be run in the spring (in 1881) - 20 Mares have won the feature race - 10 of which were 4YOs

• The record for 4YO mares in the Caulfield Cup is also better than it might seem. In the last 40 years they have a participation rate of 15%, yet have a winning strike rate of 24%. The last mare to taste success was Southern Speed in 2011.

• Interesting to note that four of the past five mares to win the Caulfield Cup have been 4YO's reads well for Lucia Valentina and Rising Romance

2011 - Southern Speed

2001 - Ethereal

1996 - Arctic Scent

1992 - Mannerism

1991 - Let's Elope

Internationally Trained Horses

Since 1998, internationally trained gallopers have provided just 28 of the 283 (10%) while providing three of the past 16 victors (19%)

2012 - Dunaden

2008 - All The Good

1998 - Taufan's Melody

So they do possess quite the handy record; having almost won double their share. This year — Admire Rakti, and Seismos.

Weights:

Only five horses have carried more than 57kg and won the Caulfield Cup since 1971 when metrics were first introduced.

2012 - Dunaden - 58kg

2009 - Viewed - 57kg

2002 - Northerly - 58kg

1990 - Sydeston - 57kg

1980 - Ming Dynasty - 58kg

Three on Saturday: Admire Rakti, Green Moon and Sea Moon

Average Winning Weight: 53.5kg

Historic Doubles

Turnbull Stakes - Caulfield Cup

Four of the last five winners of the Caulfield Cup have come through the Turnbull Stakes, though the double hasn't been completed since Elvstroem in 2004.

The Turnbull Stakes was first run in 1948. Lucia Valentina is striving to become the ninth horse in history to complete the double and just the fourth mare joining Let’s Elope (1991), Analight (1975) and Leilani (1974).

Sydney Cup - Caulfield Cup

The Offer

No horse has ever completed the double in the same year.

ATC Oaks - Caulfield Cup

Only two horses have ever completed the now ATC Oaks - Caulfield Cup, since 1881 - a feat Rising Romance attempts to achieve on Saturday.

1976 - How Now

1974 - Leilani

Interesting Jockey Trends - Damien Oliver - Hawkspur

Will be interesting to see if Damien Oliver can equal the most Caulfield Cup victories on Saturday when he links aboard the Chris Waller trained Hawkspur

He currently stranded on four wins. Oliver won his last Caulfield Cup back in 1999 aboard Sky Heights

Scobie Breasley currently holds the record on five wins - his last winner notched up in 1952

Caulfield Cup Tip: Lucia Valentina

2014 Caulfield Cup Day Other Races

Race 5 — Group 3 The Moonga Stakes

Generalife (8)

Was hard to miss his first up run when he had absolutely no luck behind Famous Seamus and went to the line virtually untouched.

Returned a new career peak on that occasion and the step up in trip on Saturday appears ideal.

• In ten attempts over 1400m, he has placed on six occasions including four victories

• Kerrin McEvoy links back aboard and has won in three of eight attempts

• The John O'Shea stable has won six of the last 25 starts in Metro company and overall strikes at 19% with gallopers racing second up

Obviously will need a bit of luck from the draw, but expect him to be right in the finish

Race 6 - Group 2 Tristarc Stakes - Catkins (4)

Though beaten as the short priced favourite last start, expect Catkins to bounce right back on the weekend.

• She has placed in four of five attempts third up and has placed in five of six attempts over this trip

• Hugh Bowman sticks aboard and has placed in six of eight attempts and strikes at just shy of 20% for the Chris Waller stable

• Catkins is unbeaten at her only prior attempt at Caulfield and strikes at 67% when having 21 days between runs

Should roll forward and settle just off the speed and prove hard to hold out in the straight.

Race 10 - Listed Alinghi Stakes - Anatina (3)

Talented mare from the Robert Smerdon camp who returned in great order last start only narrowly beaten by Fast 'N' Rocking.

Form has since been franked by the latter running well on Wednesday; no luck behind In Cahoots.

Second up last preparation, Anatina was only narrowly beaten in the Group 1 Galaxy and does appear very well placed under the set weights and penalties conditions of the race.

Some concern drawn on inside for the final event, but expect Craig Williams to find the middle of the track and prove very hard to beat.

• Anatina has placed in two of three attempts racing second up and has never missed the money over this trip in four attempts.

• Craig Williams sticks aboard and has never missed the money aboard Anatina in four attempts

• Craig Williams strikes at 26% for the Robert Smerdon camp and Anatina strikes at 33% when having 28 days between runs

• This season the Robert Smerdon camp is striking at 45% with favourites and has run at a POT of +13.9%

Good luck and happy punting.