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Plenty of conjecture surrounds Robert Smerdon's talented filly and whether she will gain a start in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap.

Lumosty currently sits at number 31 in the order of entry released on Monday morning and after some debate in the office, we are of the opinion she is likely to gain a start.

Following his win in the Doomben 10,000 trainer Chris Waller indicated Boban is an unlikely starter in the feature event.

"He's going to be topweight and that makes it hard, so I don't know," Waller said.

"I'd think we might give him a good spell and try the same thing in the spring."

Obviously plans can change, however under the handicap conditions it is unlikely he can defeat either Charlie Boy or Generalife and hence we feel he will be saved for the Spring.

Ultra consistent mare Catkins is another near the top of the weights who we feel is unlikely to run, given she can run in the more suitable Dane Ripper Stakes on the same day.

The Group 1 Tatts Tiara is again her main target and this appears a more logical pathway.

Flamberge, Trust In A Gust, River Lad, Hucklebuck, Lucky Hussler, Our Boy Malachi, Gregers, Under The Louvre and Speediness are all reportedly out of the event.

So if then we are correct in regards to both Boban and Catkins, that now leaves Lumosty at number 20 in the order of entry, gaining her a position as the fourth emergency.

Of the remaining 20 a few question marks still surround a few other runners which include Scissor Kick, Fontelina, Fast 'N' Rocking, Vain Queen and El Roca.

Scissor Kick was quite disappointing over the weekend, as was Fontelina who finished towards the tail behind Boban.

Fast 'N' Rocking has not been seen since finishing fifth in the BRC Sprint and this would be only the second time in his career that David Hayes has taken him to the races sixth up.

El Roca is nominated to contest the QTC Cup on Saturday and will be looking to reaffirm himself as a leading chance in the feature event.

Notably well below his best first up, if El Roca was again to perform poorly we feel it is unlikely that Busuttin would press on with his preparation.

As for Vain Queen she has never been tried beyond 1200m and hence we are happy to label her an unlikely starter.

This leaves Lumosty right on the cusp of gaining a start at number 17.

She will still need a few things to go her way, but her chances have drastically improved over the weekend.

2015 Stradbroke Handicap - Likely Field

	Horse	Age	Trainer	Ballot	Weight	Running
1	BOBAN	5	Chris Waller	1=	58kg	Unlikely
2	HOT SNITZEL	6	Peter & Paul Snowden	1=	55.5kg	Yes
3	FLAMBERGE	5	Peter G Moody	1=	55kg	No
4	SACRED STAR	5	Tony Pike	1=	55kg	Yes
5	CATKINS	5	Chris Waller	5	54.5kg	Unlikely
6	TRUST IN A GUST	4	Darren Weir	6	56.5kg	No
7	RIVER LAD	7	Natalie Mccall	7	56kg	No
8	HUCKLEBUCK	4	Phillip Stokes	8	56kg	No
9	LUCKY HUSSLER	5	Darren Weir	9	56kg	No
10	SRIKANDI	4	Ciaron Maher	10	53kg	Yes
11	SMOKIN’ JOEY	7	Wez Hunter	11	54.5kg	Yes
12	GENERALIFE	5	John O'Shea	12	54.5kg	Yes
13	TEMPLE OF BOOM	8	Tony Gollan	13	54.5kg	Yes
14	LORD OF THE SKY	4	Robbie Laing	14	54kg	Yes
15	SCISSOR KICK	3	Paul Messara	15	52.5kg	Unsure
16	OUR BOY MALACHI	6	Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes	16	54kg	No
17	CHARLIE BOY	4	Peter & Paul Snowden	17	54kg	Yes
18	GREGERS	4	David Hayes & Tom Dabernig	18	52kg	No
19	KNOYDART	5	John O'Shea	19	54kg	Yes
20	DELECTATION	3	Chris Waller	20	52kg	Yes
21	BIG MONEY	5	Rodney Northam	21	53.5kg	Yes
22	BLACK HEART BART	4	Vaughn Sigley	22	53.5kg	Yes
23	UNDER THE LOUVRE	4	Robert Smerdon	23	53.5kg	No
24	STRAWBERRY BOY	6	Chris Waller	24	53.5kg	Yes
25	FONTELINA	6	Anthony Cummings	25	53.5kg	Unsure
26	SPEEDINESS	7	Colin Scott	26	53.5kg	No
27	EL ROCA	4	Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	27	53.5kg	Likely
28	KURO (NZ)	3	Joseph Pride	28	51.5kg	Likely
29	FAST ’N’ ROCKING	4	David Hayes & Tom Dabernig	29	53kg	Unsure
30	VAIN QUEEN	5	John Sadler	30	52kg	Unsure
31	LUMOSTY	3	Robert Smerdon	31	50.5kg	Yes