3 minute read
Racing and Sports' Adam Blencowe previews the opening day of Newmarket's July Festival highlighted by the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes.
Bahrain Trophy - 2615m
Looks a good edition of this race with plenty of strong profiles. Despite that the numbers gravitate to the proven ability of Prize Money and have him marked a fairly firm top pick - well inside current trading price. Found one better in all three this campaign but strong overall figures first up pointed to him being one for this level (and perhaps beyond) and stablemate that knocked him off last time has gone on and won the Eclipse which can't be a bad thing. The way he kept finding there suggests he won't have too much trouble getting home over the longer trip - in fact, can allow him to travel for longer and be a plus.
Housesofparliament also ran well at Ascot and is sure to be popular given connections. Consistency is his case might be a concern - limitations on display? Platitude has improved past him - Timeform 114 v 108 - and looks on a bigger upward curve. Have to concede him a good hope.
Other one on the upward spiral is Shabeeb. Big step up but thought he was fairly slick at Doncaster and not so far off them that he couldn't get involved. Market is on to that, though. In fact we're pretty close to the current betting market away from the top pick.
Assessed Odds: Prize Money: $2.50; Platitude: $6.00; Shabeeb $6.00; Housesofparliament $8.00.
July Stakes - 1207m
Early markets look to have our measure in the two-year-old feature and we are going to be on much firmer ground here so don't want to be overly aggressive with the form out of Ascot - which is where most of the key form for this comes from.
Ardad was 20-1 at Ascot but ran strong figures and doubt it was any fluke. Backs that up and he's got a fairly obvious hope. Don't have much between him and Mehmas who has impressed every time he has gone to the races. More experience could be a positive but it also means he has more cards face up. Got to be a chance that Ardad has an ace up his sleeve which should see him marked a twist or two shorter.
There was a good bit of money around to say that Silver Line could win the Norfolk and despite defeat he probably came out of the race looking as good as any. Was hardly a hot Norfolk though, so more to do here. Intelligence Cross also has to take a big step but respect the yard. Yalta has a hope on fast wins against easier prior to Ascot. Could get back on track on firmer ground.
Assessed Odds: Ardad $3.20; Mehmas $3.50; Silver Line $7.50; Yalta $13.00; Intelligence Cross $13.00.
Princess Of Wales Stakes - 2414m
Good race and an interesting one for punters. The Grey Gatsby can set the betting up. Group 1 winner and undoubtedly very good on his day but don't think he has improved an inch since he was three and return run looked very basic.
Exosphere is the other at the head of the market and could hardly say he was any better than The Grey Gatsby last time but there's surely more blue sky ahead of him. First up win was good enough to see him off at 6/4 in the Hardwicke.
Big Orange and Second Step ran 1-2 in this race last year and nothing wrong with the form of either since. Sit fairly neutral on them. Not getting any better but not falling out of my chair if they give this a big shake again. Probably worth noting that Big Orange was smashed up by Exosphere in the Jockey Club Cup which does leave him looking hard pressed to turn the tables.
Thinking Elite Army is very interesting. The blue jackets have their tails up and two big runs off a long break have Elite Army on the cusp of delivering on promise that he has shown for three years. Just seven runs in those three years probably tells his tale - had issues but has ability.
Muntazah is interesting. Takes on the older horses having shown glimpses of good ability but can't get him in the market and have to risk him here.
Assessed Odds: Exosphere $3.50; Elite Army $4.50; Second Step $6.50; The Grey Gatsby $6.50; Big Orange $13.00.
