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James Cummings is confident he has his gun colt Kementari ready to kick his biggest goal in the race the Godolphin trainer is describing as the three-year-old’s ‘grand final’ at Randwick on Saturday.
James Cummings is confident he has his gun colt Kementari ready to kick his biggest goal in the race the Godolphin trainer is describing as the three-year-old’s ‘grand final’ at Randwick on Saturday.
Kementari is favourite to add to the great record of his age group in the $3 million Doncaster Mile, the richest 1600m handicap race in the world.Since 1983 the Doncaster has been won 16 times by three-year-olds - a strike rate of better than 50 percent - and backed up by another 10 of the age group filling minor placings.
They are statistics that should boost Cummings’ already high confidence in Kementari after his last start placing behind Winx and Happy Clapper in the George Ryder Stakes, the race that historically stands unchallenged as the best form guide to the Doncaster.
“Kementari is really going well - he has a real sense of this being his grand final,” Cummings said.“We were impressed to see the change in the horse leading into the George Ryder and after racing so well against Winx he seems to have come out of it with more energy. He’s certainly looking like he’s still on the rise.
“We feel like we’re going to see a big performance from him. It’s very exciting to be saddling up a colt of his calibre in such a prestigious race.”Already a G1 winner over the Doncaster course in the Randwick Guineas on March 10, Kementari’s youth perhaps played against him when he matched it with champion mare Winx and the seasoned G1 winner Happy Clapper in the George Ryder (1500m) at Rosehill on March 24.
Kementari was ridden in the George Ryder by Brenton Avdulla, the first time he had been aboard the colt since he was beaten into second place at his career debut as a 2YO at Canterbury last May.Avdulla, who replaced the suspended Glyn Schofield after he had ridden the colt in his three previous wins since resuming, retains the Doncaster ride due to the colt’s light weight.
Avdulla should have learned from his George Ryder experience as he erred at a vital point when he had the opportunity to get Kementari into clear running on the point of the turn. He hesitated and as a result Kementari was forced into a tight run between Winx and Happy Clapper.Kementari appeared to resent the close quarters but when he found more galloping room in the last 100m stretched out strongly to make ground on the first pair, finish only 1.6 lengths from WInx and just a length off Happy Clapper on the line.
Happy Clapper was conceding only 3kg to Kementari under the weight-for-age conditions of the George Ryder but the return to handicap conditions in the Doncaster tips the scales heavily in favour of the three-year-old.Kementari tumbles 4.5kg to only 51.5kg, while Happy Clapper is down 2kg to 57kg. The 2.5kg shift in Kementari’s favour becomes a compelling advantage for the three-year-old with the backing of the George Ryder Stakes as the key guide to the Doncaster.
Since 1995 12 of the 23 Doncaster winners have come via the Ryder Stakes including four to complete the double.Happy Clapper has his own historical demons to overcome as he is striving to become the ninth horse to win the Epsom Handicap and Doncaster Mile in the same season.
It’s not so much his handicap of 57kg as there has been ample success for the higher weighted horses in the Doncaster since 1990 - Super Impose carried 57kg and 59.5kg in his back-to-back wins and Secret Savings (57kg), Catalan Opening (56.5kg) Sunline (58kg), More Joyous (57.5kg), Sacred Falls (56.5kg) and Winx (56.5kg) have all won carrying more than 56kg.
The degree of difficulty for Happy Clapper rises when the past 30 Doncaster results reveal that 19 Epsom winners have contested the race with only two – the out and out champions Super Impose and Winx - being able to complete the double in the same season.Interestingly, and somewhat concerning for both horses, is the barrier draw that sees Happy Clapper in the rails gate and Kementari in the adjacent stall.
In the past 31 years 20 Doncaster winners have started from barrier 10 or wider, including seven of the past nine. Since 1987 just five winners have come from barriers one to six, stats the reflect the nature of the race as a high pressure event where little quarter is given by riders and clear running is often the deciding factor.The hesitancy Kementari displayed when jammed between Winx and Happy Clapper in the George Ryder suggests the inside draw could work against him as it raises the possibility of him being boxed up in a tightly packed field.
His need for clear galloping room was evident in the Randwick Guineas. It was only when he got to the outside of the pack that he focused and was able to let down with the dazzling turn of foot that has set him apart from his current peers.Cummings, approaching his first anniversary as head trainer for Godolphin in Australia, is aiming to give his employers back-to-back Doncaster wins after the John O’Shea-trained 6YO It’s Somewhat carried the famous blue silks to success last year.
It’s Somewhat took another Rosehill route to the Doncaster, winning the Ajax Stakes as his lead-in race, becoming the fourth horse to win the double since 1974.Cummings has won three G1 races for Godolphin since he took charge last year with Alizee (Flight Stakes), Hartnell (Orr Stakes) and Kementari (Randwick Guineas) among 16 Group and Listed wins for the Dubai . His overall tally of more than 170 winners at a strike rate upwards of 21 percent has kept them smiling in Dubai.
But there is added pressure for the still youthful trainer with Kementari as he will be conscious of the fact that the black colt – cast very much in the mould of his champion sire Lonhro - has a big stud career ahead of him.Kementari is already a valuable breeding commodity due to his Randwick Guineas win and a Doncaster victory will consolidate his future as a sought after sire.
It’s easy to conclude that a Doncaster win will see Kementari become yet another early retiree as Sheikh Mohammed and his Darley team cash in on his stud value.Coincidentally Lonhro was denied a start in the 2002 Doncaster as a three-year-old when he was struck down by a virus after winning the Hobartville Stakes (also won by Kementari).
Lonhro started in the Doncaster a year later as a short-priced favourite but could finish only fourth behind Defier, ending a winning sequence of five successive wins that began with the Mackinnon Stakes the previous spring.It will be a notable feather in the cap of Kementari if he can land a G1 race that eluded his sire.
The only other three-year-old contesting this year’s Doncaster is the high class colt D’Argento from the Chris Waller stable.Waller has dominated the Doncaster over the last decade with six wins since 2008 to be one behind the seven wins compiled by the late Tommy Smith and equalled by his daughter Gai Waterhouse.
Waller has six Doncaster acceptors but it’s the path he has taken with D’Argento, bringing him back from his last start win over 2000m in the G1 Rosehill Guineas, that is the most significant.
Rangirangdoo won the Ranvet Stakes before he gave Waller his second Doncaster victory in 2010 and Sacred Falls laid the platform for D’Argento when he finished second in the Rosehill Guineas before the first of his two Doncaster wins in 2013.
Sacred Choice, trained by Joe Pride, finished fifth in the Ranvet Stakes before her Doncaster success in 2011.D’Argento has meet Kementari twice in the Hobartville Stakes and the Randwick Guineas and had excuses in both races.
He made up six lengths on Kementari over the last 400m in the Hobartville Stakes before finishing seventh in the Randwick Guineas when he was the obvious luckless runner after being trapped three wide for the journey.He faces yet another testing time in the Doncaster from gate 15 but will be carrying less weight than Kementari, even if he has lost some of that advantage after Waller agreed to allow the colt’s jockey Corey Brown to ride him 1kg overweight at 50kg.
