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The $5 million Caulfield Cup is now just a month away and excitement is mounting among punters across Australia and further afield.
The Group 1 contest takes place over 2400m at Caulfield and it always attracts a deep field packed full of superstar staying talent. It is one of the most important races in the global calendar, attracting raiders from across the globe and drawing together the finest Australian stayers, many of whom are en route to the Melbourne Cup. This weight for age handicap began life all the way back in 1879 and there have been 139 winners since then, so there is a wealth of historical data to pore over when analysing trends before betting on this year’s winner:
Bay day
Since 1985, 70% of the winners have been bay, including 2017 champion Boom Time and 2016 winner Jameka. Boom Time defied odds of $51 to secure victory for David Hayes last year, surging clear of Single Gaze, favourite Johannes Vermeer, Lord Fandango and Humidor to salute. Jockey Corey Parish delivered a magnificent ride and Boom Time displayed a fantastic turn of pace down the home straight to stun many industry insiders.Top trainers
That victory gave Hayes his third Caulfield Cup triumph, following victories for Fraar in 1993 and Tawqeet in 2006. However, he has a long way to go before he can rival Bart Cummings for the title of the most successful trainer in Caulfield Cup history. He achieved seven victories via Galilee, Big Philou, Leilani, Ming Dynasty (twice), Let’s Elope and Viewed. Tommy Smith secured four wins over the years, while Jack Holt and CT Godby picked up three victories. Sadly, Boom Time is injured and he will be unable to launch a bid to become the first stayer since Rising Fast in 1955 to secure back-to-back Caulfield Cup victories this spring.Lucky numbers
Since 1985, 1, 6, 7, 9, 15 and 17 are the luckiest numbers, accounting for 71% of the winners. Meanwhile, barriers 2, 3, 5, 6, 9 and 13 have been the most successful in that time, accounting for two-thirds of the winners between them. In total, the most successful barriers with eight wins each are 4 and 9. The least successful barrier is 1, which has not yielded a winner since 1941.Roughies at the ready
Since 1985, it has paid to oppose the favourite in the Caulfield Cup as the horse that heads up the betting has only won 35% of the time. The last favourite to win was Jameka in 2016, after she was backed all the way in to $4.30. The daughter of Myboycharlie gained a great deal of public attention in the build-up to the race and went on to live up to the hype by delivering a stunning performance to blitz her rivals. That made a lot of punters rich, but in general it has been worth opposing the favourite and looking further down the field for more value.Recent winning prices
There was a vast discrepancy between Boom Town’s winning price of $51 and the $4.30 on Jameka. But the recent average winning odds work out at around the $10 mark. This is a supremely competitive race, as many of the world’s leading trainers and owners are lured by its prestige and its huge prize purse, so you typically find a great deal of value and a field that is lurking with danger. Mongolian Khan was just $5 when victorious in 2015, but Admire Rakti was $11 in 2014, Fawkner was $11 in 2013, the legendary Dunaden was $13 in 2012, Southern Speed was $10 in 2011 and Descarado was $17 in 2010.Long shots
A $101 shot has not won the Caulfield Cup since Saint Warden in 1943, but we have seen some serious underdogs secure victory over the years. In 1998, Taufan’s Melody was priced at $67 when romping to victory, and Boom Time’s success shows that you write off the unfancied runners at your peril, which is worth bearing in mind when considering the Caulfield Cup odds on this year’s race.Four is the magic number
Four-year-olds have won more than half of all Caulfield Cups in history, and mares aged four have thrived in particular. Jameka was a perfect example as she secured victory in utterly dominant fashion a couple of years ago. She fitted a number of trends, as she was bay, carried the right weight and jumped from a historically successful barrier. Geldings have also been remarkably successful in this race. Mongolian Khan, the 2015 winner, was also four years old, while five-year-olds and six-years olds have fared pretty well too in recent times.Weight gain
Boom Time was initially weighted with 52kg last year, but he then took a 1kg penalty as his form improved. Jameka carried 52.5kg as she clinched the win last year, and Descarado and Southern Speed both carried an identical weight. Yet Dunaden and Admire Rakti carried 58kg apiece, Viewed carried 57kg and Fawkner and Mongolian Khan each carried 55kg, so beware scratching off those runners lumbered with a high weight when making your picks.Rapid raiders
Australian stayers dominated this race for more than a century, until raider Taufan’s Melody seized glory in 1998. Since then the Caulfield Cup has crowned three further overseas champions: All The Good in 2008, Dunaden in 2012 and Admire Rakti in 2014. Some of the world’s leading trainers are bringing a number of exciting stayers to Victoria this spring in a bid for fame and fortune, and it is worth keeping an eye on their form in the build-up to the Caulfield Cup.
