3 minute read

A few big names, including Torcedor, Max Dynamite and Thomas Hobson, were pulled from the 2018 Melbourne Cup reckoning over the last few days.

However there hasn’t been a massive shift in the betting odds for Australia’s famous race. In fact, the markets have been proving to a bit of a puzzle with just under a month to go. Bookmakers have certainly not settled on and out and out favourite, with Cross Counter, Magic Circle, Withhold and Avilius all being marked at the top price by at least one major outlet.

Of the quintet, Magic Circle has arguably had the most consistent backing in the markets, although Cross Counter is close behind.

At the moment, both horses have been given odds of 13.00 by Ladbrokes and bet365, with others going a bit lower on Magic Circle. Scoring through dozens of bookmakers, the best price on Magic Circle seems to be those odds of 13.00, whereas you can find 15.00 on Cross Counter from Betfair.

However, the picture gets even more muddied when you take into consideration some ‘outlier’ markets, i.e. horses that have been given a low price despite being much bigger elsewhere. William Hill, for example, has priced Withhold at 9.00, but the Anthony Bloom owned horse can be found at 15.00 with several other outlets.

Early prices offer value

Of course, at this stage it can be difficult to get a clear picture of the Melbourne Cup. Moreover, matters aren’t helped by two factors: Intense over-speculation from pundits on horses that may or may not run and the reluctance of bookmakers to (quickly) remove runners who definitely won’t run from their markets.

But, there is also some wisdom in going in early and benefitting from inflated odds in a crowded field, provided bookmakers are returning any stakes if a horse is pulled. Indeed, there are lots of Melbourne Cup free bets available, allowing punters to pounce on bigger odds as the markets get into shape before November 6th.

One who might fit the bill is Patrick Erin, a recent winner of the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap, who is still available at odds of 61.00 from Ladbrokes and several other outlets. Sure, the Caulfield Cup might be a better fit and punters might be put off by the extra 2kg (making 52kg) added after that win at Randwick, but the odds scream value and surely won’t be available if Patrick Erin lines up on race day at Flemington Park.

Homesman could land 3rd Cup for Williams

Another interesting candidate quickly moving up the betting markets is Homesman, who comes in at 26.00 with bet365 but is as low as 17.00 with some bookmakers. Owned by Lloyd Williams, who is going for a third consecutive Melbourne Cup victory, Homesman looked fairly impressive taking the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at the end of September.

For those, like Magic Circle and Cross Counter, who find themselves at the top of the markets now, it’s worth remembering that the favourites haven’t had much success at the Melbourne Cup in recent years.

In fact, since Fiorente won in 2013 only Hartnell (3rd, 2016) has placed as a favourite. Most punters won’t need reminding that we have seen a 100/1 winner, Prince of Penzance, in that time. Certainly, that should act as a signal for punters to take a chance ahead of the 2018 Melbourne Cup.

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