3 minute read
There appears to be enough speed in the Cup to ensure a genuine tempo. Drawing a wide gate likely dictates that Gee Gee Fiorente will be ridden forward and will be up on the speed along with Sir Simon and White Hawk with one of that pair the likeliest leader.
1. Eastender (15) – Assessed price $9
Won this race in 2019 carrying 56.5kg when undoubtedly at the peak of his powers. It was impossible to miss his first-up run in the Tasmanian Stakes which came off a break of 305 days but ridden very cold in the Summer Cup he was entitled to hit the line better even though he was never a winning chance with the way the race was run. From the widest draw I expect Craig Newitt will take him out the back and hope to power over the top late. Forecast rain wouldn't be a negative but I feel off his preparation he may be more likely to peak in the Launceston Cup than here.
2. Mandela Effect (9) – Assessed price $6.50
The 6YO gelding dominated the WFA scene last season and after finishing behind Toorak Affair in both the Conquering and Tasmanian Stakes, connections decided to settle on a Cup path. Given the extremely slow pace of the Summer Cup the jury has to be still out a little on whether he can run a strong 2400m despite being one of the best through the line last start. Winkers go back on and I'd expect him to settle in the front half of the field with cover and if that occurs there's little doubt he'll look a winning chance at some stage of the race.
3. Captain Cook (10) – Assessed price $45
The 8Yo gelding has had two runs in the state for Charlie Goggin & Luella Maeburn, receiving a pass for his first-up run and then appearing a victim of the tempo in the Summer Cup. His last win came in September 2019 and at this stage of his career he appears weighted to his best and those days might be behind him. He has no form on rain-affected going which may also be a negative depending on if/when the rain arrives.
4. Toorak Affair (5) – Assessed price $5.50
The Michael Trinder-trained mare aims for back-to-back victories in the race. After two dominant wins at WFA level she was backed into $2.45 favourite in the Summer Cup but lacked dash when the heat came into the race. Given the stable I expect she was looking for a stronger run race there and she should receive that here in the Group 3. I'm taking more from the SP's in the Summer Cup than the actual finishing positions and despite needing to carry 3kg more than last year, from an ideal draw, I think she's the hardest to beat.
5. Double You Tee (12) – Assessed price $8.50
A locally bred horse that Tasmanians will be familiar with as he had his first 10 career starts trained by John Blacker. He has developed into an incredibly consistent stayer who hasn't won in 18 starts dating back to October 2019 but has placed on 10 occasions in that period including last start over 2400m at Sandown. He'll get back and be finishing strongly but may appeal as a betting proposition for more place than win given his record in the last few seasons.
6. Barade (11) – Assessed price $7.50
The 6YO gelding had his first career start in Sweden, his most recent start in Queensland and now finds himself in a Hobart Cup. He's won two of his last three starts including his latest effort in early January in a decent staying race over 2200m. He's yet to win past 2200m but it's difficult to query his staying credentials particularly for a stable that is renowned for finding quality over the longer distances. He's a horse with a bit of x-factor and for that reason I think he's the main chance of the three interstate visitors.
7. Exoteric (14) – Assessed price $80
Enters this race with a similar preparation to last year where he finished fifth and was one of the better runs in the race. He'll need to improve off what we've seen in the lead-up races and even though I think he will, he's entitled to be a long price particularly after having no luck at the barrier draw.
8. Gee Gee Fiorente (13) – Assessed price $70
Finished 11th in this race last year when a $91 chance. The 5YO's campaign was travelling smoothly but has detoured a little after having no luck in the Devonport Cup when he was second favourite for the race. He'll add pace to the race from a wide barrier, but I think he's a much better horse around the 1600m range and his record backs that up.
9. Glass Warrior (6) – Assessed price $12
This year's Longford Cup winner finished third in this race last year and appears to only be going better in 2021. She was the black book run from the Summer Cup rattling home from the tail in a perfect build-up for this race. Dropping down to the minimum of 54kg she's meets those at the top of the weights better for beating most of them home and she's no query at the trip given what we saw last year. Does tend to settle back in her races which can make things difficult but there's little doubt she's a legitimate each-way chance which would give Siggy Carr her second Hobart Cup after winning aboard GeeGees Blackflash in 2015.
10. Shady Hustle (1) – Assessed price $22
The 5YO mare started her campaign back in October so Sunday will be the seventh run of her preparation but only the last two have been over staying distances. The inside gate is awkward for a horse that settles back in her races, but Daniel Ganderton may look to hold a forward position to make a positive out of the draw. Finished second in this race last year and warrants plenty of respect as a result.
11. White Hawk (4) – Assessed price $100
The 7YO gelding guaranteed himself a place in this field by winning the Summer Cup last start. He led on his own terms there but with the stakes much higher on Sunday it's difficult to see that happening twice in a row. He was a huge price for a reason last time and while he's very honest, I think it would be another big upset if he makes it consecutive wins.
12. Sir Simon (7) – Assessed price $20
The popular grey has started $3 or shorter in 13 of his 16 career starts but none have been in the class he faces on Sunday. He may have had the track pattern in his favour, but he was dominant last time over 2100m in much easier grade and will drop 8kg from that run. The run home will be the test for him, but he loves wet ground and running into the money wouldn't be a big surprise.
13. Sh'bourne Renegade (8) – Assessed price $45
The 4YO gelding was another last start winner in easier grade when stepping out past 2000m for the first time this campaign. It would be some progression for a horse that was a maiden as recently as June last year to go on and win a Hobart Cup. Visiting rider Joe Bowditch is in the saddle but I tend to think the horse will be a much stronger chance in this race next year.
14. Classie Weiwei (3) – Assessed price $35
On the quick back-up after finishing fourth at Caulfield last weekend when caught wide for most of the race. The start prior he was a winner in a benchmark 70 so as a 76 rater there is little doubt this is a huge jump in class. Respect has to be given to the stable for bringing him down, particularly given regular stable jockey Barend Vorster has come for the ride.
15. Super Swoop (15) – Assessed price $55
The equal lowest rated horse in the race at 76 which is a reflection of the excellent depth of this year's Cup field. He was a late scratching in the Summer Cup which forced a change of plans for John Blacker and the horse wasn't suited in a slowly run race last time in Launceston. He's worked through his grades well to deserve the chance in this race but it's a big jump from what he has been contesting.
