Rosehill Winners - Tips for Saturday, 4th December 2021

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens.
Racecourse : Rosehill Gardens. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

The rail is out 4m and the form has been done for a Good/Soft track.

Race 1 - 12:20PM CABRA-VALE DIGGERS HANDICAP (1350 METRES)

8. Shihonka is a filly going places. The three-year-old made a mess of her rivals in maiden company first up at Wyong, winning eased down by six lengths. The runner up there, Yumi, won her next two starts. That prompted Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott to deep end her in Group Three company at Caulfield where despite being well supported, she produced a run too bad to be true. Off a four week freshen she got her campaign back on track winning a BM68 at Rosehill. The margin was only narrow over Blow Dart, who had been knocking around in Highway Handicaps prior, but that was due to the sit-sprint shape of the race. Shihonka clocked 10.87 and 11.24 splits from the 400-200 and then final 200m. Looks to want this trip now and it'll give Tim Clark the chance to park her in the first two.

Dangers: If 5. Strange Charm or perhaps 3. Faschanel were to take it to Shihonka in the early stages, 4. Saigon becomes very dangerous. She has won first up in her last two preparations and with two trials under her belt and the booking of James McDonald, she warrants plenty of respect despite mapping to settle last. 1. Nicci's Fling kept finding the line behind all-the-way-winner Queen Bellissimo first up at Kembla and is rarely far away. Grand Rumore came from behind her to run second but she has since franked that form by winning herself. Suspect Faschanel is at her best when she controls the race herself, either from in front or outside of the leader.

How to play it: Shihonka WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Race 2 - 12:55PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

There isn't much between the usual Highway suspects that all clash again in this. They'd nearly be on first name basis in the mounting yard now. Leaning heavily on likely settling positions to land the winner with 1. So Say You. The five-year-old mare simply never runs poorly. Two back at Rosehill over 1500m she parked midfield before dashing to victory. Last start at Kembla over the mile she was brought undone by a wide gate which saw settle back and wide covering ground. She wasn't quite as strong late as a couple of others here but she wasn't entitled to be given the run in transit she endured. Hugh Bowman has his first sit on the daughter of So You Think trained by Terry Robinson and you wouldn't expect to see her too far off the leaders from a perfect draw. Would be very surprised if she didn't run top three.

Dangers: 5. Lucky Banner is bursting to win a race with luck deserting her in her last four starts. Yes, four! She does invite it upon herself having developed the bad habit of being slowly away, however. The day the breaks all fall her way, she'll win a Highway and like the step out to 1800m now. 2. Lord Desanimaux was just touched off by Point Counterpoint and he seems to race well when cuddled up on the fence and exposed late. He gets that set up in this and looks well paired with Jason Collett. The maps look tricker for 3. Sizzling Cat and 6. Sumdeel. Outside of that Kembla Highway reference, 7. Casirina could give some cheek in front having recently found some early speed.

How to play it: So Say You WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 3 - 1:30PM CANTERBURY-HURLSTONE PARK RSL SPRINT (1200 METRES)

10. Capo Strada is completely untapped. He looks capable of rolling through the grades on the back of his Gosford maiden win, coupled with the way he had trialled prior to his return, and the early price about this colt is enticing enough to take that gamble. A close relation to enigmatic talent Torpenhow, Capo Strada covered ground in his only run as a two-year-old behind Saif and knocked up to finish out the back. He was well supported in betting, however, so there has always been a billow of smoke to suggest that the son of Street Boss doesn't lack for ability. One of the biggest things in Capo Strada's favour on Saturday is the map. The draw gives Kerrin McEvoy options in regards to keeping his obvious threat 1. Snitzonfire exactly where he wants him.

Dangers: Snitzonfire just kept stepping up last preparation. He fell in at Nowra to break his maiden on debut before leading all the way at Rosehill and then repeating that on the Kensington track beating subsequent Listed winner Bend The Knee and Four Pillars victor Kiss Sum. Did enough in his one trial having taken a sit and trucked to the line in a bunched finish. 9. Socialist has looked the most dynamic in her six start career when she led at Canterbury. Suspect she has a lot more ability than her record to date suggests. The winkers come off. 6. Starman has been gelded since we last saw him and his dominant Canterbury trial win was a beauty, teasing that he can go to another level this time back. 4. Warrior Hero is rarely far away.

How to play it: Capo Strada EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 4 - 2:05PM GUILDFORD LEAGUES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

8. Mr Mosaic win his races with pure speed. With just 51kg on his back after the claim and a first up record that reads three from three, he's the horse to beat. If he gets any kind of control in front, it's hard to see his rivals chasing him down. 2. Marway is the only concern when it comes to the map. Marway is racing like a shadow of his former self but that's not to say the tactics here will be to just get him running. The little anomaly in Mr Mosaic's form is that he hasn't fired in either run on his home track in the past but all four of his career wins have been first or second up before he has historically trained off and it was at the backed of preparations he raced at Rosehill. Just sets up too well.

Dangers: If Mr Mosaic does get attacked it's sets it up for 7. Tycoonist and 4. I Am Power. Tycoonist has never really been an 1100m horse, nor a fresh horse, but there is a lot in his favour – the soft barrier, 54.5kg and the booking of James McDonald. Could have done a touch more in his two trials if we're being picky. I Am Power looks ready to go first up on the back of two eye-catching trials. He is 4:2-1-0 first up and gets close to Blondeau fresh last preparation off a two year layoff if not for the interference. Two weeks later he turned the tables on that horse at Rosehill. 6. On The Lead can bounce back over 1100m having disappointed last start over further while 1. Wisdom Of Water is some hope too.

How to play it: Mr Mosaic WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 5 - 2:40PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

9. Rebel Bro lost his way at the backend of last preparation but his return at Wyong suggests that trainer Matthew Smith has the five-year-old back on track. The son of Krupt was forced back to second last from an awkward draw before darting up the fence to run sixth. He ran out of room late. He drops from 60kg to 55kg, presents a touch fitter second up and draws to get the run of the race with Jason Collet doing the steering. Second up last preparation he ran down Prince Invincible over 1350m at Wyong. There is enough in his past form to suggest he'd be competitive in this if he ran up to his best and on the back of an encouraging return, combined with how he maps and his early price, there is enough there to warrant an each way ticket.

Dangers: 14. Nictock looks the likely leader and a repeat of either one of his two latest runs sees him competitive in this. He was only beaten 1.7L by Blaze A Trail and Fox Fighter at Rosehill two back before finishing fourth in a blanket finish at Kembla. The knock is him seeing out a strong 1300m. 1. Black Duke 6. Diva Bella and 3. Arctic Thunder have obvious claims but are all likely to settle out the back. Black Duke ran into the race like the winner at Kembla last start. Not sure what to make of his last 100m though. 15. Oxford Tycoon is a 77 rater in a 72 to he deserves the 62.5kg. Won't have to do any work to find a spot. 2. Awesome Lad is in the mix too. Wide open race.

How to play it: Rebel Bro EACH WAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 6 - 3:20PM CAMPBELLTOWN CATHOLIC CLUB HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

2. Rousseau has done the majority of his racing in Melbourne so it's hard to get a line on how he'll measure up but he draws to get every possible chance tucking in behind the speed, has James McDonald in the saddle and is a last start winner. Throw in the fact that he is of course prepared by Chris Waller too. Rousseau was left in front a long way from home at Moonee Valley but found enough at the finish. The little query coming back from 2040m to 1800m is that he doesn't look to be a horse blessed with acceleration so McDonald will likely have to get the four-year-old rolling into the race. If it's a sit-sprint home, he's likely to find a couple too sharp. This is a terribly open race but this son of So You Think is the one with the most in his favour.

Dangers: 8. Seduction Queen has put together a good run of performances. She gets some weight relief up in grade and can race handy to the speed. Drawn barrier 1, Josh Parr will punch up to be in the first four on settling. Waller has used Queensland racing to build the confidence of 7. Karlstad, with the gelding chasing a hat-trick. With Too Much Caviar and For Valour opting for alternate races, it should allow Hugh Bowman to slide across and sit in the first couple. Hasn't beaten much at his last two but has won convincingly. 9. Peekays Legacy could be the sharp improver. Tends to get back in his races but perhaps he can hold a more forward spot from the low draw.

How to play it: Rousseau WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Race 7 - 4:00PM CABRA BOWLS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

2. Jazzland looks to own this race from in front. The free-running seven-year-old has run a string of seconds this time back. Looking at his sectionals from Rosehill last start where Shibli's acceleration proved superior, it was Jazzland's 400-200 that cost him the race. Of the eight runners, it was quite comfortably the slowest in the field before he sustained that sprint through the line. If Jazzland is going to win here, it'll be via pinching it at the top of the straight. Get his rivals running and nullify their chance to outsprint him. Hugh Bowman is the jockey tasked with that job on Saturday, having his first ride on the horse. Jazzland is one dimensional in that if he doesn't lead, he's not very effective, but can't see anything taking him on.

Dangers: 3. Welsh Legend's chances look to hinge on tactics. There looks to be a spot on Jazzland's shoulder up for grabs and we've seen in the past that Welsh Legend can be put into prominent positions. Like the way she closed over 1400m first up in a slowly run race won by Zoushack before getting the better of Polly Grey in a subsequent tickover trial. Not too many imports win at their first Australian start, as 1. Huetor did. There is a query over the race he won given there was two lengths from first to seventh. 4. Born A King has also hit the ground running in Australia and will relish 2000m. 11. Comme Bella Fille is also lightly raced.

How to play it: Jazzland WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 8 - 4:40PM DOOLEYS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

1. Franceso Guardi was boxed in for a couple of strides too long last start at Rosehill which allowed his stablemate Born A King to get home over the top of him late. The UK import had put the writing on the wall prior to that, working home into fourth behind Zoushack at Rosehill, who had controlled the race from in front. Blesk ran on into second while the eighth placed Media Starguest subsequently ran second to Lord Ardmore. James McDonald jumps on Franceso Guardi now fourth up and he shouldn't have too much trouble jumping onto the back of 3. Too Much Caviar just like last start. It's hard to see Too Much Caviar turning the tables yet they are closely priced in early markets. Finds the perfect race to atone for last start.

Dangers: 8. Waihaha Falls is only four starts into her career and it's been a mixed bag already but there is some talent there, that's for sure. Thought she did more than enough first up at Rosehill at midweek level. Out to 1500m looks to suit. Perhaps would prefer a wet track, but that's off limited information. 9. Deficit is a colt building a handy record (6:2-2-1), bouncing back at Hawkesbury after a disappointing first up fifth. Too Much Caviar isn't likely to have much company up front so he'll get his chance to run well. 5. Casino Kid has been knocking around exclusively in Highway Handicaps recently so this is a step up from that but this isn't a deep race and wants 1500m now.

How to play it: Franceso Guardi WIN ($4.20TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 9 - 5:20PM BANKSTOWN SPORTS CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Canasta ran ninth first up at Kembla but every time he tried to poke up the fence Colonel rolled in. It was a run to completely forget ever happened. He didn't have the early speed to find his customary on pace position over 1200m but it's a completely different looking racing out to 1400m second up. There is no other designated leader to Rachel King should assume control from in front. From that position, this tough nut six-year-old rarely runs a bad race. Last preparation he ran four straight placings, leading in each of those races. Second up the preparation prior to that he belted his rivals over this same track and trip. In fact, he is 4:2-2-0 second up, 5:1-2-1 over this track and trip and 6:2-2-1 over 1400m. It all points to him being in the finish.

Dangers: If 8. Katalin rolls into Rosehill and brings her destructive best, her rivals will have a task holding her out. She showed first up the close she is capable of producing, running a sizzling final to run down Selburose before failing to make any impression at Newcastle. In her defence, nothing was catching Much Much Better, and the headwind played havoc for backmarkers swinging wide, but Kinloch ran straight past her. She can win but the price makes her hard to tumble into with any great confidence. 1. Brutality ran third in that Newcastle race (at an SP of $51 vs Katalin's $3.20) before he ran on stoutly vs the pattern at Rosehill last week. The drying track and drop back to 1400m won't help him on Saturday. 3. Bigboyroy looks the other key chance.

How to play it: Canasta WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 10 - 6:00PM SMITHFIELD RSL CLUB SPRINT (1200 METRES)

11. Rammstein is building towards another win. The five-year-old has only won two of his 17 starts but he does have a seven seconds to his name! He added to that tally last start when 5. Ranges got the verdict. Rammstein, however, wasn't given the opportunity to build his momentum at a key moment in the straight. He isn't really a sit-sprint type of horse. He is probably most comfortable leading. Kerrin McEvoy will have the option to hold the fence from the low draw in this and from there it'll depend on how aggressive the tactics are on 13. Queen Bellissimo and 2. Much Much Better, both last start all-the-way winners. Rammstein is no star but this is his level and he sets up to produce somewhere near his best which should see him in the finish at each way odds.

Dangers: Much Much Better ran his rivals into the ground a couple of weeks ago with a showing of sustained speed. He comes back in grade from that win, carrying an extra 7kg, and is 1300m back to 1200m. Suspect his race will be won or lost in the first 300m. 7. Amiche knuckled down to win well at her first start for Ed Cummings and has been purposefully kept fresh since then. Just not sure where she gets to in the run. 8. Tamerlane has as much talent as most here but he looks likely to settle last out the back. Any of Chris Waller's trio wouldn't completely shock either - 10. El Buena12. Rubamos or even 9. Tinker McPhee at huge odds.

How to play it: Rammstein EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT


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