3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s Kensington meeting at Randwick. Selections based on a heavy track.
Race 1 – 1:15PM EARTHLIGHT NEW TO DARLEY (1100 METRES)
7. Otelo isn't far off a win and arguably should have finished a little closer when chasing home Athelric a couple of weeks ago. He was eye-catching on a soft 7 on this track on debut and unless there's a smart one in the first starters he should be hard to hold out.
Dangers: 13. Brigantine didn't have the best of luck at her debut at Warwick Farm earlier in the month and could be a sharp improver. Hard to get a guide on her on a heavy track but expecting her to run well if she handles it. 1. Best Side looked good winning his latest trial on a heavy track on March 15 and he ran pretty handy time there too. Should land near the speed and should be respected. 8. Port Louis is an interesting runner who won a Cranbourne trial on what looked a testing track on March 9 but was only rated a soft 5. He settled just off the speed there and wound up nicely late. Keep in mind.
How to play it: Otelo WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 2 – 1.50PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE PLATE (1100 METRES)
8. Trifaccia looks a smart filly and she's a bit stiff not to have won both starts including the Group 2 Reisling last time out where she conceded a big start off a wide gate and charged into a close third. Huge class drop and while back 100m with a clear shot she should be too good.
Dangers: 1. Ashema is a worthy rival having been freshened since finishing down the track behind Profiteer in the Inglis Millennium. Worked home well in a trial since then on a heavy track and she has form around Stay Inside which stacks up well. Threat. 10. Yearning is a nicely bred filly on debut and she looked in control scoring a narrow trial win on a heavy track in moderate time. Keep an eye on betting but no surprise to see her feature. 4. Naples only beat one home in a Gosford maiden second-up but she went to the line under a big hold without a lot of room. Stakes placed on debut so she does have the ability and she could surprise.
How to play it: Trifaccia WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 – 2:25PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS PLATE (1300 METRES)
9. Pretty Elsa couldn't have been more impressive to the eye winning her latest trial on a heavy track though the time wasn't overly fast. If she lands on the speed here from a good draw, and is solid in the betting, she should give a big sight.
Dangers: 5. Think High ran well on a heavy track at Randwick at his second start then disappointed before a break. Not asked for anything serious in his latest trial and he's shown enough promise to say he'll win races sooner rather than later. 1. Echo Point went back from a wide gate which is unusual for the stable and worked to the line handily late when resuming at 1150m here. Fitter and expect he'll go forward up in distance with the blinkers on. Must give another chance. 3. Stelvio was there to win on the home turn but was just outmuscled when resuming at Kembla a couple of weeks ago. Fitter for that and open to some improvement, yet to see a wet track so that could be key to his chances.
How to play it: Pretty Elsa WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 3:05PM VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
2. Lost And Running will be the shortest priced favourite of the day and rightly so after he made it three from three when resuming earlier this month. He's won on a soft 7 at this track and while there is some depth to this field is hard to go past.
Dangers: 4. Switched is no slouch and she has yet to miss a place on a wet track including her las start win at Rosehill back in October on Golden Eagle day. Trialling well as you'd expect and she will be very competitive. 6. Plaquette was narrowly beaten when resuming last prep, albeit on a good track, and she showed she's come back in good order with a close second to Rock in a trial. Any improvement in the track is in her favour and she can run well here. 7. Rustic Steel was a beaten favourite first-up at Kembla but very different set up here with blinkers on, a 6.5kg weight drop and back onto a wet track. He could be a sharp improver.
How to play it: Lost And Running WIN ($1.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 5 – 3:40PM TAB HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
5. Shangani Patrol was run down in the shadows at Warwick Farm last start and he should be at his peak now after three runs back. Proven wet tracker and while he was $51 last time, so he's not attractively priced here, he will lead these and give a good sight in a wide open race.
Dangers: 4. Main Stage was up to this trip from 1900m at Kembla two weeks ago and looked the winner on the turn before being swallowed up at the 200m. Battled on pretty well and better for that. Any improvement in the track is a plus and he'll run well. 1. California Longbow wants an improving track as well, he's better placed here than when midfield in the Canberra Cup. Narrow winner at Canterbury prior and if he gets through the ground he'll be in the finish. 8. Red Hot Chillypins made a sharp move before the turn to hit the lead in the Kembla race then weakened. Efforts this prep have been mixed but strikes a wet track and should be included in the each-way chances.
How to play it: Shangani Patrol E/W ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 – 4:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Sagacious can run a nice race fresh at each-way odds. Came of age last prep with four wins from six starts and handles all conditions. Trip suits first-up and he worked home ominously in his trial. Capable of being in the finish.
Dangers: 9. Nicci's Fling is back in class after tackling the Light Fingers and Canberra Guineas at her past two. Placed in both heavy track starts and on her nice first-up third at Canterbury is a good chance here. 4. Jojo Was A Man ran right up to his short price favouritism winning on debut over this course on a good track earlier this month. Strikes a wet one here and a pretty deep BM72 so will need to step up. There's no reason he can't but he just looks under the odds. 10. Fifteen Aria looked very good on debut as well back in December, beating Flexible on a soft 7, then not disgraced up to a BM72. Not asked for an effort in the trial and she's one to keep a close eye on.
How to play it: Sagacious E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 7 – 4:55PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
7. Saigon is just a very honest mare who returned with an excellent second at Warwick Farm, just missing and the form has held up with the winner running well in Group company at his next start. Fitter here, no worries with the wet or the trip. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 2. Archanna was a little on the disappointing side when resuming at Randwick over a month ago and returns here fresh and back a notch in class. If she finds her best form she will be hard to hold out on a surface she's comfortable with. 5. Lackeen is a big watch after an Australian debut where he was $2.80 favourite that was a complete forgive. Settled well back on a day you needed to be close and near the rail and was never in it. Trialled well prior and since and bears close watching. 12. Easifar had a picnic in front and was naturally too strong when resuming at 1400m here earlier this month. She does handle all conditions and gets a nice 2.5kg weight drop. Definite chance.
How to play it: Saigon WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 – 5:30PM HEINEKEN HANDICAP (1150 METRES)
Might be a run too soon but wouldn't be surprised if 1. Bentley Magic runs a cheeky race fresh. Generally a consistent performer he stretched out in trip for the first time last prep and won at a mile. Second trial was an improvement and he should be hitting the line strongly late.
Dangers: 2. Tommy Gold comes back to midweek company after three runs back in good quality Saturday races. He does have a heavy track conviction but he likes the Kensington and only has to find his best form to be in the finish here. 7. Stellar Pauline was far from disgraced resuming at Canterbury where she had to do some work out wide but still found the line beaten two lengths. Fitter for this and her best is also good enough to suggest she can be competitive. 3. Epic Dan always comes into contention when it's wet and he was typically solid late in his close fourth out to 1400m last time. Will be running on as usual.
How to play it: Bentley Magic E/W ($31 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
