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Kris Lees had considered an improving track and extra week’s work would be in Collide’s favour at Rosehill Gardens tomorrow as the import heads towards the Sydney Cup.
But an awkward draw has somewhat skewered his confidence on the eve of the Group 3 Manion Cup (2400m).
"Collide would have started from barrier two had the meeting gone ahead last Saturday, and now he has come up with an outside alley," Lees said this morning.
"That has dented the additional week we have had with him and the improving track because we are going to have to go back on him.
"He will be giving away a big start, and will need everything to go in his favour."
Rosehill has been upgraded to a "Heavy 8", with the likelihood of getting into the "Soft" range if Sydney's weather remains fine.
Lees has three imported stayers – Collide (Jason Collett), Mustajeer (Damien Oliver) and Raheen House (Hugh Bowman) – contesting the Manion en route to the $2m Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick on April 17.
"Collide is still the pick of my trio and I'm expecting him to run well, but there's no doubt he will take further benefit from tomorrow's race," Lees said.
"Raheen House shouldn't be discounted either. He can run a cheeky race."
Lees is planning to give Collide and Raheen House their final Cup trials a week beforehand in the Group 2 Chairman's Quality (2600m) at Randwick, but Mustajeer might go straight to the Cup after running in the Manion.
Raheen House won last year's Chairman's before an unlucky placing in the Cup.
Lees considers the prospect of a "Soft 7 or maybe 6" rating for Rosehill tomorrow suits Newcastle Newmarket winner Gem Song (Collett) in the $1m George Ryder Stakes (1500m).
"He is training on really well, and even though it's a weight-for-age event rather than a handicap, I expect him to run boldly," he said.
"But it looks a stronger contest than it would have been a week ago."
Gem Song carries 59kg under the wfa conditions, and drops 6kg in the $3m Doncaster Mile at Randwick on April 10.
Collett also partners Wandabaa in the Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes (1200m), but she has drawn poorly.
"Wandabaa is in great order and loves the wet ground, but is going to be giving away a decent start," Lees said.
Aliferous (Craig Williams) and Attention Run (Brenton Avdulla) represent the stable in the Group 3 Epona Stakes (1900m) against their own sex.
"Both mares are good on soft ground, and are chances in an open race," Lees said.
"Aliferous is coming back from the Group 1 Coolmore Classic a fortnight ago and going to a more suitable trip, whilst Attention Run is good fresh."
. Lees has seven acceptors – Controlthewitness (Sam Clenton), Darleb (Christian Reith), Safado (Mitchell Bell), Loch Lomond (Jay Ford), Sequana (Andrew Gibbons), Elegant Grace (Jeff Penza) and Zeftabrook (Alysha Collett) – in tomorrow's fourth heat (1350m) of the Provincial Championships at Wyong, where the track this morning was rated a "Heavy 10".
"It's a very open race and I haven't made a decision whether I will run all seven," Lees said.
"Given the track conditions, I expect they will be coming out wider in the straight."
Lees has already qualified two horses – Cristal Breeze and Animate – for the $500,000 Final (1400m) at Randwick on April 17. The pair trialled at Newcastle yesterday morning.
. Last-start winner Snitzari (Andrew Mallyon) will be his sole runner tomorrow at Doomben, which was upgraded this morning to a "Heavy 8".
"She handles both Doomben and wet ground, so this is a good opportunity to give her another chance to win a metropolitan Saturday race," Lees said.
Lees accepted with the filly in two races, and had an easy decision to make when she drew nicely for the Class 3 Plate (1110m) against her own sex compared with a wide barrier for the 3YO Handicap (1050m).
. Sunday's Wellington Boot Showcase meeting gives Newcastle's leading trainer the opportunity to win the feature country two-year-old event for the second year running.
Lees won the Boot last year with Zeftabrook (Chad Lever), and this time saddles lightly-raced In The Blink (Andrew Gibbons).
He withdrew the Pierro filly from a Kensington engagement yesterday to tackle the $200,000 Boot (1100m).
"In The Blink is a nice filly and I feel she will eventually develop into a miler," Lees said.
"She might not be sharp enough for the 1100m at Wellington, but will be strong late and it's worth having a shot at with such good prizemoney."
. Lees has two runners –High Opinion (Andrew Gibbons) and Itz Lily (Alysha Collett) – in today's $150,000 Muswellbrook Gold Cup Showcase (1500m) – and the latter is clearly his best chance.
Itz Lily has trialled well, has won two from four fresh, handles wet ground and has drawn the inside barrier.
