3 minute read
The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a soft/heavy track.
Race 1 - 12:30PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)
8. Marboosha produced a devastating sprint first up down the Flemington straight to announce that she has returned a better filly. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained three-year-old had always promised at least black type ability with placings behind Macroura and Written Beauty. Prior to her first up win, Marboosha had trialled exceptionally well so the writing was on the wall. She is untried beyond 1100m but her late strength at the end of that trip down the straight suggests she'll relish it. We've seen her handle soft tracks in the past and Kerrin McEvoy should be able to park the daughter of Dream Ahead in a stalking position from a perfect draw. Sets up to improve again off her resumption which makes her very hard to beat in this.
Dangers: 11. Andermatt was no match for Wild Ruler a fortnight ago at Randwick but that's a strong reference point given Wild Ruler is one of the market elects for the G1 Galaxy. Looks suited get back onto wet ground. 6. Isotope is an exceptionally talented filly and the way she won the Gold Edition two back was breathtaking. Has a touch of 'freak' about her. 1. Prague peaked on his run first up before running fourth in an on speed dominated G1 Newmarket. If 2. Doubtland is just a wet tracker, he needs to stand up. 5. Private Eye faces his stiffest test to date but we still don't know his ceiling. Group One winner 4. Odeum gets the blinkers on back to 1200m but it might be run she needs to have before the Coolmore Legacy.
How to play it: Marboosha WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 2 - 1:10PM XXXX N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)
10. Dadoozdart had every possible chance in the Canberra Cup last start but he's hard fit now four runs into his preparation and he loves wet ground. The five-year-old won a Listed 2515m race in Ireland back in 2019 on a heavy track. Dadoozdart has won the only two starts he has had over the mile and a half. He teased to be a stayer to watch last campaign with fourths behind the likes of Kolding, Avilius and Probabeel so perhaps it's a little surprising that he hasn't won a race this preparation but this set up gives him the chance to break through for his first Australian win. Looking at the speed in the race there looks to be two clear divisions so if Tommy Berry is positive early, there's every chance he settles in the second line behind 7. Sacramento, who he meets 3kg better off from their last clash.
Dangers: 8. Collide got more than a pass mark on his Australian debut first up over 2000m on a firm track. It was more of a sit-sprint shape which didn't suit. The import's best overseas form was all on soft (and synthetic) ground. 13. Favourite Moon is the travelling companion for Addeybb this year and although he doesn't bring the same Group form as his former stablemate Young Rascal, he has more upside. Hence he carries just 53kg. There was a lot to like about the second up run of 14. Realm Of Flowers over 2000m given her staying prowess. She is one paced so Damien Thornton will need to be on his bike. The Mount Popa form through Sacramento has been franked.
How to play it: Dadoozdart EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 3 - 1:50PM ROADWORK SOLUTIONS EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)
7. She's Ideel has been savaging the line this preparation. First up behind Subpoenaed and Madam Rouge in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes before backing that up in the G3 Aspiration out to the mile. The race wasn't run to suit yet she still got with 0.1L of stealing it on the post. This is her fourth racing preparation and she has won third up twice already. She looks ready to win. There's no question that she handles wet tracks with her record 5:3-1-1 on soft and heavy going with her one heavy track run a fast finishing second to Costello at Rosehill over 2000m. The query last week, before the wash out, was where she'd get to from a wide draw. There's no need to worry about that now as she'll jump from barrier two. Just needs the splits at the right time.
Dangers: 9. Attention Run flies fresh and she loves heavy ground. It's a great scenario for her to produce her best, which would give a race like this a shake. She has resumed on heavy tracks in all three of her first up Australian wins, winning twice. Stablemate 4. Aliferous has won just three from 33 but she swims too. 5. Polly Grey showed last start she possesses tactical speed so that can offset another wide draw. The former Kiwi looks ready to win third up and the wetter the better for her as she has a Heavy 10 Matamata win already to her name. 12. Le Lude got strung up in behind runners last start. She has returned well and raced last start like she wants this staying trip now.
How to play it: She's Ideel WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 4 - 2:30PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)
As it stands, 1. Addeybb holds a 2-0 verdict over 6.Verry Elleegant. So what's changed in the past 12 months for Verry Elleegant to turn the tables? She has arguably returned a more mature racehorse with her tendency to overrace now a thing of the past and is perhaps a shade tougher but since we last saw Addeybb he ran second in the G1 Prince Of Wales before winning the Listed Doonside Cup and then the G1 Champion Stakes, a lead up race he'd run second in before he won the Ranvet last year, turning the tables on brilliant Irish mare Magical. It wouldn't be a stretch to conclude that Addeybb returns an even better horse than last time. We know his prowess on wet tracks too. Tom Marquand will bounce him out to lead this field, crank up the tempo turning for him and let his class shine.
Dangers: James McDonald never let Addeybb out of his sights in the Ranvet last year on Verry Elleegant, sitting outside of the lead. Expect similar tactics setting up another mouth-watering clash. She simply refused to lose the Chipping Norton last start, making it Group One number six. She might be Australia's best wet tracker, it's just unfortunate she is up against the world's best wet tracker! 7. Colette is a wet tracker. We had that proven last start. She was just touched off by Verry Elleegant the start prior. 3. Master Of Wine did enough first up in the Chipping Norton from well back and won the Sky High on a heavy track second up last autumn. Can forgive 2. Sir Dragonet last start when shuffled back in the run. 4. Angel Of Truth will give a sight.
How to play it: Addeybb WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 5 - 3:10PM SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)
The two factors that tip the scales 11. Montefilia's way from a punting perspective are the price and that she will handle the heavy track. Last spring's Champion Stakes winner, where she started $2.70 favourite and beat 1. Lion's Roar, did enough in the G1 Surround Stakes first up. Forbidden Love demolished her rivals but Punters Intelligence reveals that Montefilia had the second quickest last 200m in the race. She was only getting warm through the line and has improved sharply in the past getting onto wet tracks or out in trip. It was when she got out to the mile and further last campaign that she came into her own. The knock is jumping 1400m straight to 2000m on what's sure to be a testing wet track. It's also worth noting how well Harmony Rose ran in the Randwick Guineas against the boys.
Dangers: 3. Mo'Unga should have won the Randwick Guineas if not for traffic problems and this has been his autumn grand final all preparation. He won on a heavy 10 at the Gold Coast on debut, however, the five maiden gallopers he beat have collectively had 35 starts since, and are all still maidens! The time was by far the slowest of the four 1400m races run on that meeting too. That's not to say he won't handle the track on Saturday but it's not a given that he will. Lion's Roar made a long sustained sprint to win the Randwick Guineas and is even better suited out to 2000m. Don't ignore the obvious. 2. Lunar Fox is hard fit coming out of a brutally run All Star Mile. Then there's 11. Sky Lab, 6. Wheelhouse and 5. Grandslam. Deep race with plenty of angles.
How to play it: Montefilia EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 6 - 3:50PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)
If 2. Avilius is ever going to win another race, surely it's this one. The seven-year-old hasn't won in 19 months, winning the 2019 George Main Stakes, but his first up run behind Verry Elleegant and Colette was a beauty. He loomed to win half way down the straight before peaking on his run. Punters Intelligence's sectionals back that up too, with his 400-200 of 11.09s the quickest the race. His last 600m of 34.30s also ranked number one. In the defence of Avilius, in his 14 starts since last winning, he has only raced on a track worse than a Soft 7 on one occasion, where he ran third in the G1 Tancred. In his two runs on heavy tracks in Australia, albeit two years ago, he gave his rivals a touch up. Prefer his middle draw as opposed to last Saturday's barrier one prior to the wash out. No excuses now, Avilius.
Dangers: 13. Funstar continues to race well without winning. There was only 0.4 of a length between her, 1. Kolding and Avilius last start. In her favour is the ability to take up a spot and she has handled wet tracks well in the past, the one blemish her most recent run in a Heavy 9 in the Golden Eagle. Kolding gets through the wet but his record on top of the ground emphasises his preference. 6. Gem Song has failed on heavy going once in the past but he has never raced better and his current form warrants a crack at weight for age level. 5. Star Of The Seas could have done a touch more in the All Star Mile but it was his first look at Moonee Valley. A wet 1500m on his home track sets up well form him to bounce back.
How to play it: Avilius WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 7 - 4:30PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200 METRES)
8. Stay Inside sets up perfectly. He has tactical speed, draws low, is proven on a wet track and has had a faultless preparation. The Richard and Michael Freedman-trained colt won brilliantly two starts ago in the Pierro Plate, stalking the speed before accelerating through the Soft 7 conditions to put a gap on his rivals. He didn't beat much but he won by four lengths eased down, relishing the juice in the track. He was then forced back from the awkward draw in the Todman Stakes a fortnight ago and couldn't force clear in the straight. Like the way he closed when he finally saw daylight. Tommy Berry won't have to complicate tactics as they look as simple as jumping on the back of 2. Profiteer. Expecting Stay Inside to produce a career best.
Dangers: Profiteer's preparation also looks well timed. He never gave his rivals a chance in the Inglis Millennium blitzing the field with sustained speed. Last start in the Todman, Hugh Bowman took his foot off the gas at the 600m mark before sprinting again. 13. Four Moves Ahead has to improve off what she did in the Sweet Embrace to mix it with Stay Inside and Profiteer but she most certainly can given she was six weeks between runs off a couple of minor setbacks. 6. Home Affairs maps to get a cosy run and he measured up in the Todman a fortnight ago. The Blue Diamond trifecta 3. Artorius, 4. Ingratiating and 5. Anamoe all have claims but the barriers hurt. Historically it's been very hard to settle back and sweep wide to win Golden Slippers on wet tracks.
How to play it: Stay Inside WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 8 - 5:10PM BISLEY WORKWEAR GALAXY (1100 METRES)
It's an appealing scenario for 13. Tailleur with Godolphin taking full advantage of the handicap conditions. She carries just 51kg, has three runs under her belt, loves wet ground and maps to stalk a hot speed. The four-year-old has never finished outside of the top two in her eight career runs and although she has never raced in Group One company, this race is tailor made for her to make that leap. Thought she was a tad disappointing last start, despite winning, at very short, odds, but the way she exploded when ridden off the speed the start prior is more an indication of what she is capable of. If she is ever going to match it with the likes of 1. Eduardo and 4. Haut Brion Her, it's with Saturday's set up.
Dangers: It'd be a surprise to no one if Haut Brion Her took all before her this autumn on the back of proving herself to be one of the country's elite sprinters. Has handled wet tracks in the past but a testing track first up poses fitness queries. She could simply prove too good for this field. How do you knock a horse with Eduardo's tenacity? He smashed the Randwick track record last start. The wet track plays into his hands too. The topweight will have plenty of company up front from right across the track. 13. Wild Ruler is a classy three-year-old still on the up and there is no evidence to suggest he won't handle a wet track. He shares a very similar profile to 2017 Galaxy winner Russian Revolution. 2. Dirty Work next best.
How to play it: Tailleur WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 9 - 5:50PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)
12. Emanate was expected to win the G3 Wenona Girl last start when sent around an odds on favourite but she failed to deliver. It was nothing like the version we saw of Emanate the start prior where she blew her rivals away at Rosehill, producing a devastating turn of foot. The logical conclusion is that she appreciated the wet track two starts ago and couldn't reproduce it on a firmer surface. Given the strength of her SP profile, getting back onto a track with the sting out and back to Rosehill, there's more than enough to warrant chipping up on this Godolphin mare again. Rachel King will have to navigate a path from a very wide draw but there's every chance she finds a three-wide running line around midfield. The speed up front looks genuine.
Dangers: 7. Seasons was driving to the line behind 3. Vulpine last start, and beat home Emanate. With 5. Every Rose applying plenty of pressure up front, that's key to Seasons turning the tables. Handles the wet and second up last preparation she should have finished second to Haut Brion Her. 6. Written Beauty was run off her feet in the Challenge Stakes last start when heavily backed. Could have done more late but the track record was obliterated by Eduardo and she's worth another chance back to a Group Three mares race. Loved the return of 4. Wandabaa and she's even better on wet tracks. 15. Fanciful Dream is out of her grade and has to stretch to 1200m but she is racing as well as ever. 17. Air To Air is the triple figure blowout.
How to play it: Emanate WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
