3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
Race 1 - 12:45PM SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400 METRES)
4. With Your Blessing should eat up 1400m on what he has done to date over 1200m and his breeding. John Thompson has always held this colt in high regard and the son of Vadamos justified that last start running fourth in the G3 Pago Pago. He was less than a length away from Shaquero and Tiger Of Malay with subsequent Golden Slipper placegetter Ingratiating behind him in fifth along with Sires' prospect Hilal. The luckless Mazu finished half a length in front of him and he beat 6. Conrad on debut at Canterbury so that form ties in. It's no surprise to see Glen Boss stick by With Your Blessing who will be allowed to balance up midfield. Have go no doubt about him running right through the line.
Dangers: Conrad blitzed his rivals at Wyong, after that second to Mazu, having sat outside of the leader. It was as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye too. Surprised that James McDonald didn't stay with him but perhaps that's more due to his affiliation with Chris Waller and 5. Coastwatch. 3. Coverge was posted throughout in the Pago Pago and boxed on not to be beaten far himself. That was plenty of merit in his sixth. 2. Saif bumped into a smart one at Flemington last start while stablemate 7. Mr Mozart isn't without a hope either after an impressive debut. The draw doesn't help, however. 11. Testimonial and 12. Flying Witness are also worth consideration.
How to play it: With Your Blessing EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 2 - 1:20PM XXXX NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000 METRES)
2. Entente doesn't yet have the credentials of a couple of his key rivals in this, and he isn't well treated under the set weights plus penalties conditions, carrying the same weight at 1. Master Of Wine but he is a last start winner and looks to get control of this race from in front. The four-year-old won the Albury Cup last start after taking a trail. Prior to that he ran in the Canberra Mile, where he was anchored by 61kg, before being gunned down late in the Canberra Cup. Looking at how this race might be run, Tim Clark will run it to suit and we've seen in the past that Entente can quicken from on top of the speed. Being a hard fit front runner that makes him dangerous on a firm Rosehill deck.
Dangers: Master Of Wine has produced grinding finishes in his two runs back perhaps racing like 2400m would suit. He stays at 2000m but in his favour is the drop back in grade from Group One company. Punters Intelligence shows that only Verry Elleegant had a quicker last 600m in last Saturday's Ranvet. He also draws to settle closer. 3. Shared Ambition got a long way back in the G1 Australian Cup last start. Forgive him that. His two prior runs were great, beating Mount Popa first up at Randwick despite giving the subsequent Mornington Cup winner 7kg. 6. Paths Of Glory could be a big improver given what he did third up last campaign after doing nothing first and second up. Would benefit from a positive ride.
How to play it: Entente WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 3 - 1:55PM SIGNACE TULLOCH STAKES (2000 METRES)
4. Yaletown turned in a terrific Tulloch trial with a brave fourth in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes having ridden a fat early speed. Liked how the son of Vancouver found again through the line suggesting that he is desperate for a staying trip. He was only 1400m up to 1500m second up too. Looking at the map, it's evident that there isn't a lot of speed on paper which will give Tim Clark the chance to show why he's one of the best front-running jockeys in Australia. The wide gate suits, allowing him to roll across in his own time. Couple the likelihood of a slowly run race with key dangers 1. Cherry Tortoni and 6. Favreau settling out the back from wide draws, it's an appealing scenario for the Waterhouse and Bott-trained improver.
Dangers: Favreau teased to have talent over the spring but it all came a touch too soon. He's ready for a Derby tilt now, however, on the back of two wins over the mile. They were in Class 1 and BM64 company but he has shown an exceptional turn of foot. The 2000m is ideal now. He is good enough to overcome a wide draw, with James McDonald steering, but it's a bet that comes with some risk. Cherry Tortoni was well beaten in the Alister Clark last start despite starting $1.85. He savaged the line in his two runs prior. Looking through their form lines and past two clashes, there isn't much between Cherry Tortoni and 3. Young Werther with the latter drawn much better in this. Kiwi 2. The Frontman is a touch one paced but ignore Murray Baker three-year-olds at your peril.
How to play it: Yaletown EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 4 - 2:35PM CANADIAN CLUB EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500 METRES)
2. Greysful Glamour bounces in and out of form but there are two constants. Her form in Sydney and on top of the ground. Forget she ever ran last start in the All Star Mile on a deteriorating track, particularly given the brutal speed they went in front too. The front-running five-year-old has a history of bouncing back from poor showings in Melbourne. It happened twice just last preparation. The most recent of those was an 11th in the Matriarch Stakes before three weeks later bolting in the ATC Cup at Rosehill before pinching the G2 Villiers Stakes from in front proving too slippery for Best Of Days and Criaderas. With regular rider Rachel King already on 10. Nimalee, James McDonald is a handy replacement.
Dangers: 1. Krone is airborne at the moment and is chasing four straight wins. Two back she quickened brilliantly to put her rivals away in the Guy Walter before reproducing that effort on top of the ground in the G1 Coolmore Classic. Maps to get the same cosy run too. There's just no edge at the price. 8. All Saints' Eve had comparable late splits to Krone last start, she just didn't get much room. Expect to see her much closer upon settling which gives her a chance at turning the tables. Ran well behind Think It Over prior to that. 10. Nimalee relished the pace set by Yao Dash first up to win well. Has had a minor setback since but if she can hold her form, and her tickover trial suggests she will, she'll be in the finish.
How to play it: Greysful Glamour EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 5 - 3:15PM E GROUP SECURITY STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200 METRES)
1. Coruscate is a no nonsense style of gelding which is the only way to explain the early price. Although six years old now, the Exceed And Excel gelding went to another level last campaign in Melbourne with two dominant wins first and second up. Off two similar trials this time back, a repeat performance of what he did at Caulfield back in September is on the cards. Back in third in that race was Order Of Command which ties nicely into the Maurice McCarten form, won by 6. California Zimbol last start. Expect to see this versatile sprinter use the middle draw to settle in the first four for Hugh Bowman. Godolphin have a very strong hand in this race but he doesn't deserve to be the 'fourth stringer' in the market.
Dangers: California Zimbol has the second up scalps of Loving Gaby, Dawn Passage and Fituese already to her name. Scrambled home first up but Order Of Command franked the form in the G1 Galaxy. 2. Roheryn didn't let down on a wet track the last time we saw him. He's better than that and know how well he reacts when kept fresh. He'll be coiled up from the inside draw. 2. Deprive and 11. Pandemic are also hopes for Godolphin. 8. Signore Fox is an enigma but there's something to be read into James McDonald sticking with him having ridden him in his most recent trial. Big watch on 12. Wisdom Of Water on the back of two eye-catching trials.
How to play it: Coruscate EACH WAY ($16 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 6 - 3:55PM VINERY STUD STAKES (2000 METRES)
2. Harmony Rose looks to be significantly advantaged by her racing style in this, given the lack of speed. From barrier 1, expect Josh Parr to lead. Mark Newnham has a knack with three-year-old staying fillies – think Nakeeta Jane and Maid Of Heaven just to name two – and he has another talented one with this daughter of Glass Harmonium. She gives every impression she'll relish 2000m. First up she won going away on the line at the Kensington track before running third in the Randwick Guineas despite jumping from a BM72 to Group One company. She rode a hot speed yet was still in the finish with Mo'unga franking that form line in last Saturday's Rosehill Guineas. She is already potentially the best filly in the field and with map favours, it's hard to ignore her claims.
Dangers: 3. Hungry Heart scored win number two in her career in the Phar Lap Stakes last start. What's evident from her form is that she needs firm ground with a record of 6:2-3-0 on Good tracks. She was suited by the fast early speed which she's unlikely to get here but all signs point to her loving 2000m. There hasn't been a lot between 1. Personal and 4. Starelle the last two times they've clashed. Starelle appreciated the fast tempo to win the Kewney with Personal was disadvantaged riding the speed. Lance O'Sullivan has a little query over 7. Force Of Will getting the trip but the Kiwi has won four on the bounce now.
How to play it: Harmony Rose WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"With map favours, it's hard to see her being run down."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 1, 2021
BEST BET: @BradJGray is with a front-running Mark Newnham-trained filly in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/g0XI9mj2bp
Race 7 - 4:35PM KIA TANCRED STAKES (2400 METRES)
2. Mirage Dancer won the G1 Metrop third up last preparation out to 2400m, beating Mugatoo, off two near identical lead up runs. The seven-year-old worked to the line strongly behind 13. Toffee Tongue last start in the Sky High Stakes suggesting that he is exactly where co-trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young want him. It's all fallen into place again too with suspended jockey Nash Rawiller perhaps the only missing piece. Damien Oliver takes over and won't have to spend any pennies early from the draw, while the firm track plays to the import's strengths too. There's 10 chances in this year's Tancred but Mirage Dancer's claims are as strong as any of his rivals.
Dangers: 11. Melody Belle is a 14-time Group One winner. Yes, fourteen! She is on her farewell tour before being sold as a broodmare and is having a crack at 2400m for the first time in her 38 start career. Her record in Australia is one win from 12 starts. There is no denying her class but there are a couple of queries. 1. Sir Dragonet is on the quick back up after running fourth to Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet. Does he need to cut out of the ground to produce his bet though? 9. Angel Of Truth is another backing up from the Ranvet. 10. Shraaoh was as good as Mirange Dancer in the Sky High but still might be a run short. 6. Spirit Ridge keeps stepping up and will make his own luck.
How to play it: Mirage Dancer EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 8 - 5:15PM ACY SECURITIES DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)
A lot has to go right for 11. Bottega from the extreme outside but at the price, it's a gamble worth taking. The four-year-old was nosed out by Gem Song first up in the Newcastle Newmarket, where he started favourite. That form line, also through Cascadian, was franked in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. It was second up last preparation where Bottega was a good thing beaten behind 12. Criaderas despite giving him a whopping 7kg. He was then thwarted by the wet track in the Golden Eagle, but he still ran fifth. In his favour is the dry track and the hectic tempo at this race is likely to be run with so many speedsters drawn inside and out. Kerrin McEvoy will be tasked with finding a back, ideally in a three-wide running line.
Dangers: 4. Rock is undefeated second up and nobody missed his first up run in the G2 Ajax Stakes. Draws well, suited by the likely shape and gets his preferred dry track. 8. Purple Sector meets Bottega 3kg worse off from their clash last preparation where there was little between them, but he draws to get the run of the race and produced a career best second up last preparation. What happened to Criaderas last start? Was the track too hard? Did he resent racing inside horses? If that's the case, barrier 1 again doesn't help. 15. Subedar has been racing over trips short of his best yet still winning. 13. Yao Dash showed last start he can absorb pressure and still find.
How to play it: Bottega WIN ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 9 - 5:50PM CLEANAWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
5. Starspangled Rodeo hasn't finished outside of the top two in his last four starts and he sets up well for this BM88 assignment on an eight day back up. The six-year-old was unlucky not to win the Muswellbrook Cup last start after he was shunted off the track in the straight. An unsuccessful protest against the winner Itz Lily was lodged. That was after being able to muster enough speed early to put himself on the pace. Three starts ago he went straight to the front and kept running over the 1400m at Rosehill with Josh Parr in the saddle. There's every chance history repeats. Wedged in between that win and Muswellbrook was a narrow second to Yao Dash but he lost no admirers there.
Dangers: 12. Great News looks to be the number one seed for the Provincial Championships final over The Championships on the back of a brilliant first up win in the Gosford Qualifier. She put her rivals to the sword late, making it five wins from nine starts. Assume the tactics will be to go back form the wide draw given her grand final is a couple of weeks away. 6. Academy was well backed in Canberra's National Sprint last start but was run over late. This is his level and he rarely runs poorly. 10. Segalas was knocked off by Subedar first up and can only improve. Does prefer wet tracks, however.
How to play it: Starspangled Rodeo WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
