Kembla Grange Winners - Tips For Saturday 3rd April 2021(Provincial Championships)

Saturday’s Provincial Championships meeting at Kembla Grange. Selections based on a good track.

Kembla Grange in Australia.
Kembla Grange in Australia. Picture: Steve Hart

Race 1 – 12.29PM LONG WEEKEND PLATE (1300 METRES)

1. Adelaide's Light is likely to start a very short priced favourite at his first run for the Snowden stable. Competitive in all three starts in his first campaign and trialled quite nicely at Randwick recently. Should take stopping.

Dangers: 7. Straya Pride has hit the line pretty well in his three starts after giving away plenty of ground. Might want further but not a lot of depth in this field and he can feature in the finish. 8. Jadida gets the blinkers on after a couple of placings at Wyong and Hawkesbury where she had every chance. Firmer track might be a plus and with the shades on she's worth another chance. 6. Plucksey Dubh had some support first-up on a very heavy track at Goulburn and held his ground. Back on top of the ground might help so no surprise if he improves.

How to play it: Adelaide's Light WIN ($1.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 2 - 1:04PM HAPPY EASTER 2YO HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

4. Mihocek trialled very well going into his debut at Kensington on a heavy track so might pay to forgive that. Different set up here, drawn nicely and back on top of the ground are pluses. If he runs up to the trials he can lift sharply.

Dangers: 12. Collier Bay hit the line well in a slowly run race first-up at Warwick Farm then thrown into the Sweet Embrace and didn't measure up. Freshened up and back in class here she can run more to the first-up effort. 5. Tristate comes back in class after contesting a couple of Golden Slipper lead ups, led them up in the Pago Pago and boxed fairly into fifth. Probably goes forward from the wide gate. Has to be considered. 6. Akahata made a fair debut then improved as he hit the line better at Kensington a few weeks ago. Interesting to see how he fares on a good track.

How to play it: Mihocek E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 3 – 1.39PM CANADIAN CLUB PLATE (1500 METRES)

2. Go Troppo looks an improver and he ran on strongly at the finish first-up over 1300m here a few weeks back. Since trialled well on the synthetic and has the blinkers on. Tricky gate but if he can offset it up in distance he should be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 7. Outlook showed promise in two runs back in the summer and while beaten favourite at this trip before a spell it wasn't a bad run. First trial was fine, not paying too much attention to the second. Drawn well and should run well. 10. Last Not Least made a promising debut at Newcastle a month ago and will be aided by an extra 100m here. Takes on older horses but pay to keep him safe. 5. Hirondelle looked to have her chance first-up at Hawkesbury when well in the market and while she was never going to win she worked home okay into second. Fitter and extra trip suits.

How to play it: Go Troppo WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 4 – 2.19PM SIMON'S BUCK'S DAY YMYD HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Ralph's Folly is well placed to break through first-up from a break. Placed when resuming last prep but looks to have come back well judging on his trials, the latest a nice second to Rustic Steel who won during the week. Has to go close in this line up.

Dangers: 4. Remain Humble was a little disappointing in her latest trial but it was on the synthetic. Before that was close up in a Canterbury trial and she might be one to keep an eye on. 7. Miss Delia is a bit of a mystery with no public trials this prep. Ran an even race on debut at Kensington in December then failed at the same track before a break. Check betting for a pointer. 2. Cuban Joe is another market watch on debut with one trial a month ago under his belt. Expect he will go forward from the outside and could give a sight.

How to play it: Ralph's Folly WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 5 – 2.59PM DOT KELLY'S 88TH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. Absolute Legend ran well here first-up then on the speed and stayed on fairly up in class at Kensington. Given he wasn't quite up to them last time the drop in grade suits him and he should be in this for a long way.

Dangers: 6. Running Four Bub hasn't fired first-up yet but did lose the rider on one of them so gets the benefit of the doubt after excellent trials behind Kementari and Wisdom Of Water leading into this. Keep safe. 2. Speed And Style was outclassed when resuming behind Subedar here a few weeks back but wasn't entirely disgraced. Fitter and better off here so expect him to be competitive. 1. Canyonero might need one more run he will be better for a first-up run here where he gave away a big start and made a little bit of ground late. Doesn't win out of turn but on his best efforts he has a show.

How to play it: Absolute Legend WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 6 - 3:39PM ILLAWARRA PHOTOBOOTHS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Mission Legend has his quirks but he's easily the most promising in this field and after doing everything right in a lead up trial can be expected to run well. Won well here in October then threw it away at his next start. Hard to beat.

Dangers: 8. Reverse disappointed at her last run at Hawkesbury and was spelled straight away. Super impressive winning first-up before that and can't judge her on her recent trial when hard held. Must respect. 1. Colonel has his first run for the new stable and did it quite well winning a trial here recently. His maiden win was at Kensington and he's run well in both starts here. One of the chances. 3. Lillium is the big query having her first start since a runaway win at Canterbury in November 2019. Fitter for two trials and drawn ideally so if there's support for her it should be noted.

How to play it: Mission Legend WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 7 – 4.19PM CARLTON DRAUGHT HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Like the way 14. Readathon is going at present and she found the line well in a strong race here last start behind Favreau. Can't draw a barrier at the moment so will get back and if she gets the breaks she's a good each-way chance.

Dangers: 9. Seduction Queen did a good job first-up considering the leader won when fourth behind Blue Missile here on March 12. Trialled since then so is fitter and the extra 1200m suits. Should be running on. 1. Media Starguest was a popular winner at Newcastle second-up then couldn't go with Blue Missile in that race mentioned as favourite. Drawn well and entitled to another chance. 2. Tectonicus also comes through the same race and he boxed on for third after racing handy and having every hope. At peak now after two runs back and if he gets any luck from the wide gate can be in the finish.

How to play it: Readathon E/W ($16 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 8 – 4.59PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Oakfield Hiawatha comes back to his right grade after tackling a Provincial Championships Qualifier at Hawkesbury a month ago and he was far from disgraced there beaten less than two lengths. Races near the speed and should give a good sight.

Dangers: 4. Harlem Luya has a wide gate to overcome and she's also back in grade after a couple runs in town since her first-up win at this track. Wasn't that far away last start either in an on pace dominated race and she's good enough to feature here. 2. Rebel Bro loomed up and held on okay when resuming at Kensington from a two month break. Was a winner at this track and trip before that, generally a consistent type and he can run another good race. 1. Holy Reign ran a fair race first-up though was weak late then never in it behind The Irishman at Warwick Farm. Better suited back to this class and won both starts at this track so there's a case for him to improve.

How to play it: Oakfield Hiawatha E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 9 – 5.34PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFIER (1400 METRES)

9. Game Of Thorns has a low percentage racing style and that's why she's only won two from 18 but her best is good enough to win this. Drops 7kg on her last run at Canterbury over 1900m almost two months ago and form before that was excellent in town. Trialled nicely since. Will get back but hard to beat with any luck.

Dangers: 5. Safado showed a return to form is imminent with a game second at Kensington behind Petronius. Fair effort fresh in the Provincial Qualifier at Newcastle but looks a good chance to put himself in the finish of this one. 17. Onemore Sapphire ran well fresh last time in before winning twice and has been trialled right up with a 1000m and 1200m hitout leading into this. Drawn well and no surprise if he gives some cheek. 12. Elegant Grace has been freshened up since leading and weakening behind Harmony Rose at Kensington in February, was a winner at that track prior. On pacer drawn to be right there and if she gets any favours she's an each-way 1chance.

How to play it: Game Of Thorns E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.

 


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