3 minute read
The rail is in the true position and the form has been done for a soft track.
Race 1 - 11:35AM WIDDEN KINDERGARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES)
There are a couple of red flags with Hawkes-trained debutant 11. Bahama, namely that her one trial was on the synthetic at Warwick Farm and that she half fluffed the start but there was a lot to like about how she ran through the line. All of her rivals were off the bit late but she was still in second gear. She could have won the heat by lengths if they wanted her to. Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins ahead of her first start and although she gives away race experience, there is nothing in the form from those with runs under their belt that jumps off the page. We saw Libertini run a cracker on debut in this race behind Bivouac a couple of years ago. Continue to monitor the market but there has been early betting support, which is encouraging.
Dangers: Stablemate 8. Vandoula Lass impressed at Sandown on debut before being run down by Rocket Tiger at Randwick back in December. Drawn low, she'll use her naturally brilliance to give another sight from in front. 9. Anagain comes off a provincial maiden win but she beat odds on favourite Camplin who had previously run well against the likes of Hilal and 3. King Of Sparta which ties in well for this. The market isn't showing her enough respect. 10. Lovemetender comes out of a deep Kensington maiden won by subsequent stakes winner Najmaty while Sonnet Star went on to claim the Wellington Boot.
How to play it: Bahama WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 2 - 12:10PM FUJITSU GENERAL CARBINE CLUB STAKES [GROUP 3] (1600 METRES)
It's hard to poke too many holes in race favourite 4. The Irishman . He stalked the speed in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes last start only to be grabbed late by subsequent Group One winner Hungry Heart. The race was set up for the closers too. His two Australian starts for Mark Newnham have been on good tracks but his prior New Zealand form suggests he'll handle anything Randwick throws up come Saturday. Josh Parr sticks with the Tavistock colt and should have him parked a pair or two back from the leaders. Can't find any negatives, other than the price perhaps, but he probably deserves to be a sub $3 chance given everything in his favour. This will be his last start here before being transferred to Hong Kong.
Dangers: Wanted to make a case for 1. Poland to turn the tables on The Irishman given the merit in his Phar Lap fifth having gone far too quick in front but he carries 3kg more here and draws awkwardly. 2. Wheelhouse drops back from two solid efforts in Group Ones and Chris Waller speaks highly of the son of Pierro. 12. Kiku is airborne but this is harder again and Tommy Berry looks to have no other option other than to drag her back to last. 8. High Supremacy bumped into a smart one in Equation four weeks ago in the Canberra Guineas and should be close to his top now out to the mile third up. 6. Easy Campese is a knockout hope.
How to play it: The Irishman WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 3 - 12:45PM NEWHAVEN PARK COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400 METRES)
9. Activation is going to spot all 15 of his rivals a start but we're getting a big enough price to gamble that everything falls into place for him. Namely that there is enough speed up front. The wide draw isn't necessarily a bad thing as it keeps things simple for Ben Looker, who won't have to duck and weave. Balance him up and let him rip down the outside. The four-year-old overcame a slow tempo to win with his Coonamble qualifier with plenty up his sleeve, running slick late sectionals. Trainer Kody Nestor has said the extra week is an advantage for Activtion too as it keeps the speed in his legs given he is more of a miler type. Would be surprised if anything is hitting the line harder than him.
Dangers: 3. Art Cadeau is still yet to finish outside of the top two in his 10 career starts. He is incredibly consistent. Hasn't raced for seven weeks now since qualifying, where he won as an odds on favourite, but has trialled since. Draws to stalk the speed. Couldn't back anything in this field at sub $3 though. 16. Tara Jasmine hasn't had the smoothest preparation to get here but she has had genuine excuses in her last couple. Love the booking of Tim Clark and if she can settle on top of the speed, she'll be hard to gun down. 12. Spirinac has won five of her past seven and can only run well while 7. Baileys, 15. Wild Rocket and 10. Bautista will be closing hard too, all at double figure odds.
How to play it: Activation EACH WAY ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 4 - 1:20PM TAB ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000 METRES)
Loved the closing speed of 3. Flexible last start over 1800m against older horses. The daughter of Hallowed Crown, still in her first preparation, only has one blemish on her record and it was when she got back at Gosford on a leader-friendly track. Forget she ever ran. She's very consistent, otherwise. On her late strength last start, she shapes to relish the 2000m. All of her recent form is on soft tracks so that plays into her hands too, as does the perfect draw which will allow Tommy Berry to settle midfield. James Cummings won this race with Colette last year coming through similar second tier races. This is an extremely open race but she is a deserved favourite.
Dangers: 6. Land Ahoy has the John Sargent staying polish and will relish 2000m. She has struck form at the right time but will also need the breaks to fall her way from a wide draw. 14. Tycoon Hallie can count herself a touch unlucky to still be a maiden having come through a couple of slowly run races where she drew wide. Has her first run for Brad Widdup here and although she has been deep-ended, suspect she'll run better than her odds suggest. 4. Easifar and 5. Duais rate mentions as do the two Victorians up the top 1. Salto Angel and 2. Chequerboard.
How to play it: Flexible WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 5 - 1:55PM SCHWEPPES CHAIRMAN'S QUALITY (2600 METRES)
6. Sacramento was ridden with cover last start in the Manion Cup and thought it was a terrific effort given it was against his normal pattern. His asset in the past has been to run his rivals into the ground. With 5. Hush Writer in the field again, tactics will be interesting. On the Manion Cup, it has provided seven of the past 10 winners of the Chairman's Quality. Sam Clippeton maintains his association with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained stayer before heading towards the Sydney Cup where he'll carry just 50kg. Would love to see Sacramento let stride again, which saw him string three wins together earlier in his preparation as it would give him his best chance to find winning form again.
Dangers: 11. Selino also comes through the Manion and only the quinella had a quicker last 600m. Has improved steadily at each run back this time in and would expect that trend to continue fourth up. 12. Paths Of Glory went back to last in a very slowly run race last Saturday before producing the fastest last 200m split of the entire meeting. As far as eighths go, it was pretty handy. 1. Mirage Dancer didn't fire a shot in the Tancred last Saturday but he was well fancied. He's better than that. It's been a long time between drinks for 10. Rondinella but she sets up well here while 3. Sir Charles Road rates mention.
How to play it: Sacramento WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 6 - 2:30PM INGLIS SIRES' [GROUP 1] (1400 METRES)
1. Anamoe produced a Sires-winning run in the Golden Slipper last start when charging to the line from the rear. Punters Intelligence reveals that his last 600m of 34.33s was a whopping four lengths faster than the second quickest in the race. The son of Street Boss was suited by the brutal early tempo of the race, thanks to Profiteer, and he won't get that same set up here but he isn't a one dimensional colt that has to settle out the back. We've seen him settle midfield in the past and the middle draw gives James McDonald the option to be within striking distance regardless of how the race is run. That's significant as there doesn't look to be a stack of speed on paper. All being equal, Anamoe should be winning as he only has to hold his form.
Dangers: It's a stretch to think 8. Four Moves Ahead or 2. Captivant could turn the tables on Anamoe but there's no contest when comparing the strongest piece of form for the Sires' and they both ran well in the Golden Slipper themselves. Captivant didn't get the clearest passage and will be better again on firmer deck while Four Moves Ahead disjointed preparation perhaps took its toll fitness wise. 3. Lightsaber has won three on the trot and has a likeable style on speed. Got a bit mid-race breather last start to beat Saif, with that form since franked albeit not against the 'A graders'. That's the knock on 4. Tiger Of Malay and 6. Hilal too. Like what they've been doing in lesser races but they need to improve again.
How to play it: Anamoe WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 7 - 3:15PM BENTLEY AUSTRALIAN DERBY [GROUP 1] (2400 METRES)
8. Khoekhoe ran sixth in the Rosehill Guineas but it was a fantastic Derby trial from the Victorian colt. He was clearly the best of the on pacers after Grandslam set it up for the closers and was only second up over 2000m, five weeks between runs. The Matt Cumani-trained stayer gave a kick at the 400m despite dragging the field up to the leader. He was still there 100m from home before fading late, as he was entitled to do. First up he was beaten in the Autumn Classic at Caulfield but did SP $2.20 and was heavily backed. He strips fitter now third up, has had the experience Sydney way of going and draws to box seat if Craig Williams eases to find the back of the likely leader in this 6. Yaletown.
Dangers: James McDonald said throughout the week that he doesn't know if 3. Skylab is the best horse in the race, but he's the best stayer. That's well summised. Skylab will relish the 2400m. He was under a lot of pressure turning for home in the Guineas but kept finding. 16. Montefilia had the fastest last 600m having got a long way back and was 1400m straight out to 2000m second up. The knock is the price. 1. Lion's Roar comes through that same form line. Recent history tells you to respect the Kiwis and the Tulloch Stakes form but there's queries over both this year. The form around NZ Derby winner 2. Rocket Spade hasn't stacked up in Australia while the Tulloch was farcically run with 6. Yaletown leading throughout. 12. Favreau could be worth another chance with that in mind.
How to play it: Khoekhoe EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 8 - 3:55PM HEINEKEN T J SMITH STAKES (1200 METRES)
3. Eduardo on top. Now that's out of the way, tactics are everything in this. In the TAB Everest last year Nature Strip drew barrier five while 3. Eduardo drew barrier nine. Eduardo crossed to the front, went way to hard which left Nature Strip to take a trail. Both were undone by the brutal early speed. Expect the same map to unfold. Eduardo comes off a career-best when blitzing his rivals in the G1 Galaxy, giving them all weight. Prior to that he beat Nature Strip in the Challenge Stakes, albeit covering a lot less ground in the run. There was a lot to like about how Eduardo ran through the line in that win, though. If this comes down to a battle the last 100m, you want to be in Eduardo's corner, especially at the price.
Dangers: Can 2. Nature Strip still win if he doesn't lead? As long as he still finds his rhythm, yes. He can't be dictated to. His asset is his ability to build and build his momentum. Nature Strip won the TJ Smith Stakes last year leading all of the way on a heavy track. He is going just as well 12 months later but he drew barrier 1 and was allowed to click through his gears. If those two drive each other mad 1. Bivouac could pounce. He is an enigma but his best is certainly good enough. 5. Masked Crusader had everything go right in the William Reid while it was the opposite for 11. September Run. In defeat, her run was as good as the winner.
How to play it: Eduardo WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 9 - 4:35PM THE STAR DONCASTER MILE [GROUP 1] (1600 METRES)
It's hard not to ignore that everything has seemingly fallen into place for 2. Avilius. Already a three-time Group One winner, the seven-year-old looks well treated with 56kg with a 6.5kg spread down to 20. Forbidden Love. Think Hartnell, Hauraki and It's Somewhat as big recent mile winners for Godolphin, all with similar profiles. Avilius finished within 0.4L of Verry Elleegant first up in the G1 Chipping Norton before running the fastest last 600m split of the meeting in the George Ryder Stakes last start when a luckless third. The Ryder has provided four of the past six Doncaster winners with weight-for-age back to handicap conditions historically a winning formula for the Randwick feature. James McDonald does the steering and the speed will be hot up front.
Dangers: 1. Mugatoo has undeniable claims but he's very well found. Settles midfield buried so will need a touch of luck at the right time. 10. Cascadian also smoked to the line in the George Ryder and drops 6kg from that. He had no luck in last year's Doncaster either. If there's a blowout it's the defending champ 17. Nettoyer. She carries 0.5kg less than when she won it 12 months ago! Her Ranvet run was rock solid in world class company. 12. Think It Over warrants respect given how he has returned this time back, with Bossy in the saddle. There is a consensus that the three-year-old depth is lacking this year which puts a little query over the heads of 9. Aegon, 19. Mo'unga and Forbidden Love.
How to play it: Avilius WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 10 - 5:10PM CHINA HORSE CLUB P J BELL STAKES (1200 METRES)
Out of sight, out of mind for 13. Perfect Radiance ? It's the only way to explain why the market has overlooked her. She's a classy filly. The daughter of Snitzel has her first start for Joe Pride, having formerly been with Kris Lees, and has had three trials to ready her for this first up assignment. First up last preparation she only won a Class 1 at Newcastle but she beat Knight and broke the track record. She was then luckless behind Regal Stage on a soft track at Randwick. Forget her Spring Stakes flop thereafter as she pulled up lame. Respect the fact that she started hard in the market there, however. Throughout her career she has shown she can run time and she draws to stalk the speed.
Dangers: 17. Geist should have just about won at Gosford two starts ago before being dragged back to last at Kembla Grange last start before sizzling home. She has a lot more talent than her record suggests. Good blowout chance. 3. Marboosha was entitled to do a touch more in the Darby Munro last start but there are no Isotopes or Odeums in this. 5. Supreme Idea wasn't far away in second, and she had previously run a close up third to 2. Macroura . 6. Never Talk gets the sting out of the track and looks suited back in trip off a six week freshen. 11. Selburose maps well and looked in need of the run first up.
How to play it: Perfect Radiance EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
