3 minute read

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a good track.

Race 1 - 11:30AM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE MILE (1600 METRES)

None of these have the depth of form 1. Converge brings to the table. He covered ground first up to be beaten 1.3L by Shaquero and Tiger Of Malay. That's the 'B Grade' two-year-old form but it's a strong enough reference for this. He has since run second to Saif in the Baillieu out to 1400m. He may have been flattered by the way the track played that day but there was a big gap back to third and Saif was previously Group Two-placed at Flemington. Pedigree-wise Converge should relish getting out to the mile being by Frankel out of a Shamardal mare. Tim Clark will bounce out the Waterhouse and Bott-trained youngster out to lead this field up and finding it hard to make a case for anything to run him down given what his rivals have done to date.

Dangers: 2. Alegron kept finding the line behind Daily Bugle last start at Mornington which sets him up well for the mile now third up. Has the Godolphin polish which will take him a long way alone in this winnable assignment. 4. Maurice's Medad won a Hawkesbury maiden as expected last start at an SP of $1.70. Prior to that he was a close up third to Coastwatch and Gin Martini with the latter tying the form in through Converge. Outside of that, wary of 3. Arnaquer given he has just the one start to his name, winning at Kembla Grange. Tom Marquand rides and there's no way of measuring his potential upside jumping from 1300m to the mile.

How to play it: Converge WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 2 - 12:05PM BISLEY WORKWEAR SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400 METRES)

8. Ellsberg has just 53kg on his back and is going to be in the right spot for jockey Tim Clark. That could prove the difference in what looks a relatively evenly matched field of three-year-olds. The son of Spill The Beans either leads himself or camps in the back of 6. Yardstick. Clark was in the saddle when Ellsberg won at Rosehill by a widening 4.3L at Rosehill last preparation. That was also the meeting where the near side blinkers went on to keep him straight when asked to quicken. Forget the last time we saw him where he was back in trip and easy in the market. He'd come to the end of a busy first preparation. Ellsberg has trialled up well on two occasions and Gerald Ryan will have him ready to go fresh.

Dangers: 2. Private Eye didn't have the early speed to hold a spot from a low draw over 1200m first up before a mid-race check put him completely out of play. The 1400m suits now and Joe Pride has thrown the blinkers on for the first time. The knock is the start he'll give away. It's the same concern for 11. Rainbow Connection but the price nearly warrants the gamble. He reminds me of last year's winner Indy Car regarding his untapped talent. There's a lot to like about the way he finds the line and like the step straight out to 1300m from 1100m when third behind Salina Dreaming. 1. Holyfield is the class runner but is he that much better than them to give away 6kg to the likes of Ellsberg?

How to play it: Ellsberg WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 3 - 12:40PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400 METRES)

There looks to be three key chances on paper with two hard in the market and one overlooked so siding with 8. Gemmahra at double figure odds. This Gwenda Markwell-trained mare did a mighty job to win first up at Hawkesbury back in early March as she had to do a stack of early work to cross the field. She looked certainly to be gobbled up half way down the straight but kept finding and if anything, was going away again on the line. She has had a tickover trial since and cruised to victory. She won't have to do as much to find the front this time from barrier four and if Glen Boss can pinch a breather at any stage, she won't be easy to get past, particularly on her preferred firm surface.

Dangers: 1. Pandano won a BM88 at Randwick two starts ago before winning the Newcastle Provincial Qualifier by a widening 2.6 lengths. It was a demolition job. He is well treated under the set weights scale, gets James McDonald and draws beautifully. With Great News scratched, he deserves to be a firm favourite. Kris Lees has half a dozen runners with 2. Animate the pick of them. He was no match for Pandano two starts ago but has run well since and draws better than stablemate 4. Cristal Breeze, who sets up well but draws awkwardly.

How to play it: Gemmahra EACY WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 4 - 1:15PM HEINEKEN PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200 METRES)

7. Trifaccia is an untapped talent. We last saw the I Am Invincible filly in the Riesling Stakes six weeks ago where the tempo of the race made it impossible for her to win. Glistening controlled the race from in front and kicked clear. Punters Intelligence reveals that she clocked 32.86s for her last 600m with closing splits of 10.72s and 10.92s for her 400-200m and last 200m. That tells you everything you need to know about how the race played out. Godolphin has trialled her since and she cruised to the line for Rachel King, who maintains the ride. She hasn't had much luck with barriers in her short career so expect her to be in the second half again but the speed looks more genuine here with 5. Crystal Bound drawn wide and a couple of other fast horses also engaged.

Dangers: 2. Najmaty hasn't smashed the clock in either of her wins but they've been both have been dominant victories. She beat Sliders by a long way at Caulfield last start, and she wasn't beaten far in the Riesling prior while the third-placed Hunnam has won since. Crystal Bound slid through to lead at Moonee Valley on debut and won by six lengths, surpassing expectations as she was sent around $11. Hunnam ties the form in as he finished a luckless fourth. 9. Joyous Legend raced a touch keenly in the Riesling before knocking up badly. She is better than that and has trialled well since.

How to play it: Trifaccia WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 5 - 1:50PM THE STAR AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400 METRES)

With the NZ Oaks winner 1. Amarelinha. The Kiwi colts didn't measure up over here but not willing to score Amarelinha down on that basis alone. She matched it was Aegon back in January and he brained North Pacific in the Hobartville before his preparation went pair shaped. In his defence, he didn't have much luck in Saturday's Doncaster either. Amarelinha has won five from seven, with her two defeats coming by 0.1L and 0.2L margins. She possesses a turn of foot, we know she stays and unlike many of the New Zealanders, she prefers dry tracks. She did half miss the start in the Oaks and messed up the start badly in a barrier trial since, which is a little query, as ideally would like to see her parked outside of the likely leader 4. Harmony Rose. Opie Bosson comes across for just the one ride.

Dangers: Harmony Rose went too fast in the early stages of the Vinery last start and she was cooked come the 400m. Even with the inside bias, she did a fantastic job to only be beaten 0.2 lengths in the finish but she was staggering home late. She was there to be beaten yet with that set up 3. Hungry Heart still only just ran her down. Does 1. Montefilia stay? We'll know once and for all after Saturday as she has no excuses now fitness wise but I'm willing to gamble no at this stage. Credit to 6. Duais winning the Adrian Knox but the run of 7. Bargain was the one that screamed 2400m in the Oaks. Might lack the class of some of these but she'll eat up 2400m and that's often half the battle out to this trip.

How to play it: Amarelinha WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 6 - 2:25PM ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200 METRES)

8. September Run has a huge ratings edge on her rivals being the winner of the G1 Coolmore and having run second to Nature Strip in the G1 Lightning first up this campaign, yet she gets 2kg off the colts under the set weight conditions. Her Newmarket run was disappointing when a $2.80 favourite but she bounced back with a fourth in the William Reid against the pattern of the meeting. Her closing sectionals were outstanding, with her fourth to Masked Crusader much better than it reads on paper. That also proved that she isn't simply a straight track specialist. Yes, her Randwick form from early days is ordinary on paper but she's a different animal now and Chris Waller wouldn't have scratched her from the TJ Smith Stakes if he wasn't extremely confident of her winning this.

Dangers: 9. Isotope's wicked turn of foot was on display again when winning the Darby Munro three weeks ago. Her acceleration makes her very dangerous, as does the map which has her stalking a genuine speed. 1. Wild Ruler will be part of that speed battle but will he be able to cross 7. The Face and 5. Wisdom Of Water? Unlikely. Liked the run of Wisdom Of Water first up against older horses, racing out of his grade. He'll give cheek in this at odds. There is a little case to be made for every runner in this field with a couple of the fringe contenders particularly well suited by a dry deck.

How to play it: September Run WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 7 - 3:05PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)

12. She's Ideel went into the Group One Tancred Stakes last start as the lowest-rated runner so she was horribly treated under the weight-for-age scale but she defied that to hit the line in the only way she knows how. It was a fantastic Sydney Cup trial and she plummets from 57kg to just 50kg with Rachel King taking the ride. The five-year-old has been costly to punters in her last couple of preparations, some of it due to no fault of her own. She missed by a nose in a slowly run Aspiration three back before only bad luck beat her in the Epona. The big weapon she has in her arsenal is her turn of foot. If she can produce her customary finish at the end of 3200m, doubt they'll hold her out.

Dangers: 13. Realm Of Flowers is one paced but she stays all day. She sustained a long, looping run in the Chairman's last start to just miss to 10. Favourite Moon. Given the ground she covered, the way she cornered turning for home and how she has been trending towards this race all preparation, she is a deserved favourite. Through the Tancred form line, 7. Miami Bound is tied to the hip with She's Ideel. It was a timely return to form. Of the rest, 2. Southern France looks ready now third up, 11. Rondinella ran fourth in this race in 2019 while 14. Sacramento was undone by a brutal early tempo on Saturday and will give a sight.

How to play it: She's Ideel WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Race 8 - 3:45PM LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000 METRES)

At the risk of overthinking this race, have defaulted back to the obvious in 7. Verry Elleegant. The five-year-old added a sixth Group One to her tally in winning the Ranvet last start turning the tables on 1. Addeybb from last year. James McDonald will adopt the same tactics in this having drawn to Addeybb's immediate outside. It's the ideal draw for McDonald. Sure, 11 of her 13 career wins have come on wet tracks but she does have two Group One wins to her name on good tracks (ATC Oaks and Turnbull). Addeybb looks to be at more of a disadvantage than her if the track races on the firm side. She's a world class mare and although there probably isn't much improvement to come off her Ranvet performance, she probably won't have to do much more than that.

Dangers: Addeybb improved lengths second up in the Queen Elizabeth last year to romp home. That, however, was on a heavy track. He only has one length to make up on Verry Elleegant from the Ranvet so he no doubt has that in him, history already tells us that, but is he the same horse on top of the ground? History also tells us no. The blinkers on for the first time are an interesting addition. More was expected from 3. Mugatoo in the Doncaster having presented like the winner before grinding into fourth. What makes him dangerous though is the turn of foot we know he possesses. That's a big weapon on a dry track against Verry Elleegant and Addeybb. 2. Sir Dragonet was as strong as any of his rivals through the line in the Ranvet and has since toyed with the Tancred field.

How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 9 - 4:25PM MOET & CHANDON QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES (1600 METRES)

There's no excuses for 1. Probabeel. She gets a perfect set up. Dry track, weight-for-age against the mares, perfect draw and two of her three Group One wins have come at Randwick. The four-year-old has won four of her past six starts with the two defeats coming in the Cox Plate and last start in the All Star Mile which is a complete pen job. She didn't go a yard in the ground despite being confidently backed to start $3.50 favourite. That's against the likes of Mugatoo, Russian Camelot and Sir Dragonet. With due respect to her rivals in this, these mares are a couple of cogs below that level. The last time she tackled the Randwick mile she was a comprehensive winner of the Epsom. Her recent tickover trial was a cracker too. There's just too much in her favour.

Dangers: What you see is what you get with 3. Greysful Glamour. She gave another huge sight in the Emancipation only for 4. Nimalee to peel off her back to run her down. The last time she ran over the Randwick mile she won the Villiers. She's off and gone if her rivals jockeys don't pay her due respect. 6. Quantum Mechanic ran exceptionally well in that same race defying the bias and Icebath has franked that form. 11. Odeum would join Alizee and Foxplay as recent three-year-old winners of this race and was only knocked off by Isotope last start, despite dropping back in trip. Like the way 7. Vanna Girl quickened first up. Gambling against 2. Colette assuming the track is dry.

How to play it: Probabeel WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Race 10 - 5:10PM TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200 METRES)

7. Seasons relished a fast run 1200m last start to put her rivals away in the G3 Birthday Day Stakes. The six-year-old has returned in the best form of her career. First up she attacked the line to run second to all-the-way winner Vulpine. For whatever reason the market rarely gives the Les Bridge-trained mare the respect she deserves. She beat a similar field by 2.3L three weeks ago having drawn barrier 1 and she shows up again having drawn the inside marble with Kerrin McEvoy sticking. She goes up just 0.5kg from that, tackling Group Two company, but only has to hold her form to be in the finish. Four of her five wins have come first and second up so like the extra week between runs.

Dangers: There are a couple of big unknowns in this starting with the Kiwi 3. Entriveire . She has won five from six and has the makings of a future top liner in New Zealand. The wide draw doesn't make it easy for her. Then there's 1. Tofane. This time last year she won the G1 All Aged Stakes. First up last preparation she was only 0.3L off Zoutori. Again though, where does she get to from the draw? Query three is 6. Fasika. She wasn't the same horse last preparation and her two trials back this time in don't inspire enough confidence to suggest that she's back just yet. There's a good win in 11. Wandabaa this preparation but it might be on a wet track. 16. Air To Air was the best of the closers behind Seasons last start.

How to play it: Seasons WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS