Neil Evans' Tips For Tuncurry (Monday)

Heavy 8 and rail True.

Race 1 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

We start the rescheduled Cup day meeting on a track that is unlikely to improve from heavy range. Progressive and well-bred 1. American President only needs to tuck in from the tricky gate to be the clear one to beat. Has come through much superior races, and despite coming back in trip, looks very well in at the weights after the claim.

Dangers: Improving metro filly 10. Joyzel missed the kick on debut at Wyong, but still got home okay. Three weeks between runs with a significant jockey switch leaves her well over the odds. Both 8. Prefer To Be Ready Ready drawn better at her second start; and resuming filly 9. Don't Doubt Katie; are capable of running into the finish; while 5. Mr Bingo goes in wider exotics.

How to play it: American President to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 4YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Another one third-up, metro four-year-old 1. Hypnosis is primed to break through dropping in class. Loomed big to win at Wyong before only being cut down late by one in superior going.

Dangers: Improving mare 2. Fairey Barracuda chased home a nice sprinter on debut, and drew even better in a thinner race. Gap to the rest headed by 10. Millennium Jewel who gets the blinkers removed third-up; while 4. Belleplaine made up good late ground first-up in a deeper provincial race.

How to play it: Hypnosis to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Lightly raced provincial five-year-old 2. Our Fox is suitably placed to strike fresh. Consistent weight carrier last prep, fitted with two trials significantly on heavy rated tracks, and draws to get the right run.

Dangers: Watch the betting on provincial four-year-old 1. Defiant Heart who resumes without publicly trialling. Metro four-year-old 5. War Memorial has trialled nicely after a string of disappointing runs, and stable has made some gear changes including the addition of winkers. Two last start maiden winners 7. Clifton Springs and 8. Bodgie; resuming mare 9. Impulse Control; and three-year-old 10. Tupelwara who gets blinkers applied fourth-up; all go into trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Our Fox to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Testing race. Provincial mare 12. Scanlan should be right at her peak now after four runs back, the best of them charging home to miss narrowly on a heavy surface at Tamworth. Has had more than enough experience on wet tracks.

Dangers: The blinkers added third-up and a jockey switch are plusses for metro three-year-old 8. Hard To Excel who draws to find a nice spot and has early tactical speed. Was scratched from Hawkesbury on Sunday to be saved for this. Under-rated 9. Seething Seb is well placed third-up from a nice draw staying at this distance; while keeping safe improving four-year-old 15. Sacred Delag four weeks after closing off nicely on debut.

How to play it: Scanlan to win and box trifecta 8,9,12,15. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m):

Tricky race with a stack of chances. Provincial mare 11. Lasting Grace has been fitted with two 1000m trials to run the mile out fresh. Won first-up on a heavy track at this course in May, and is returning with some key gear changes.

Dangers: Tough five-year-old 1. Sound And Vision draws the fence with a claim, and best form is also on rain-affected ground. Must respect 2. Hemsted who was an impressive winner three starts back in stronger grade, although doesn't want it too wet. Expect sharp improvement second-up from 15. Sea Legend with blinkers added. Include 4. Dodecanese and 8. Valley's Sister in wider exotics.

How to play it: Lasting Grace each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 TUNCURRY-FORSTER CUP (2100m):

Plenty of chances too in the feature Cup headed by improving five-year-old 4. Battle Guardian who can make it two wins from his last three. Finished strongly to claim a BM 74 before was gallant, running home hard to just miss in the stronger Taree Cup.

Dangers: Provincial seven-year-old 2. Oakfield Captain is fit and honest, and draws the inside. Tough seven-year-old 1. Real Time Warrior hasn't started since a shock Country Classic win at huge odds a month ago at Rosehill. Well treated at the weights after the claim, but generally wants it much drier. Watch the betting on a pair of six-year-olds 6. Prospero and 9. Flying Mojo both rising in trip third-up.

How to play it: Battle Guardian to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1200m):

Progressive five-year-old 1. Capri Lane looks ready to return behind a dominant 1000m trial win in heavy ground, and the 4kg allowance importantly gets him right back in the race at the weights.

Dangers: Very forgiving of four-year-old mare 5. Oh Say who had no luck three weeks back in a much deeper Saturday Highway race. Led until the final stride in a deeper sprint three starts ago, and the drop back to this distance is a plus. Capable five-year-old 10. Clearly Regal has hit the line hard in his last two, and handles the wet; while 3. Lobster Noodles4. Endless River and 8. Remorseless are all knock-out hopes.

How to play it: Capri Lane each way. Odds and Evens: Odds


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