3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.
Race 1 - 11:30AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
7. Banju offers up a different form line to most of the favourites in this and his record doesn't do his talent justice. The four-year-old has won two from 10 but has placed in a further seven bumping into some handy country gallopers early in his career… Halcyon House, Tempel One, Commanding Missile and last week's Highway winner Last Chance Dance to name but a few of them. The only blemish in his career to date was two starts ago at Scone where he got out the back and was never in the hunt. That makes the barrier a touch sticky here as Jean Van Overmeire, who rode him at Dubbo recently, will still need to be positive. Last start he bounced back from that blemish to beat subsequent winner Byron at Bathurst.
Dangers: 3. Perfect Pitch has a horrible strike rate with two wins from 38 starts but she rarely runs poorly and sets up well here out to 1500m from a perfect draw. Has run in four Highways already for a win and a second. Can only run well. Keen to see 4. Cecilia out to 1500m for the first time having boxed on over 1200m last start in Highway company. Could improve sharply over further given her breeding. There was just 3.5 lengths from first to 11th in the Hawkesbury Highway a fortnight ago with runner up 8. Charlton Park suited by the moderate early speed. The same can't be said for 10. Saintly Sunrise , 14. Tipping Point and 6. Don'tforgetmonica.
How to play it: Banju WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 2 - 12:05PM TURANGGA FARM WOODLANDS STAKES (1100 METRES)
There is no better two-year-old form than Stay Inside form and that's what 4. Headliner brings to the table. On debut she hit the line hard running second to the subsequent Golden Slipper winner with Punters Intelligence revealing comparable last 600m splits and an identical last 200m section. She then failed at start number two, running ninth behind Stay Inside, despite starting hard in the market. The Soft 7 conditions were blamed for her below par performance. Chris Waller tipped her straight out and she has trialled sweetly since, cruising to the line. Maps to settle midfield so she'll be close enough if good enough and this is the time of year where Waller's youngsters historically jump out of the ground.
Dangers: 2. Sonnet Star motored home behind Najmaty on debut before proving that was no fluke by taking out the Wellington Boot in emphatic style. That was six weeks ago but a recent Newcastle trial win suggests that she has improved again. Just has a tricky draw to overcome. 9. Tidal Impact was favourite for the Boot before being scratched at the gates. Has as much talent as her stablemate. 7. Shihonka chased home a smart one at Warwick Farm first up while 1. Ashema has race experience on her side.
How to play it: Headliner WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 3 - 12:40PM JOHN MESSARA HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
8. Achiever gave cheek in a deeper race than this last start, leading up the Frank Packer Plate field before Tommy Berry let him slide at the 800m. Senor Toba was a dominant winner but it took High Supremacy the entire straight to grab him late while Randwick Guineas winner Lion's Roar was a length behind Achiever in fourth. Berry got the tactics spot on last start so anticipate a similarly positive ride. Prior to that the three-year-old was posted wide throughout in the G3 Carbine so forgive him that. Back to BM78 company he only has to hold his form to be in the finish again, especially considering the majority of his rivals bring midweek form.
Dangers: 9. Blaze A Trail needs a dry track. Thought he did a big job to get as close as he did last start over the mile with 60kg given he wasn't allowed to build into the race like the winner Travest. Swap the runs, it's a different result. This is his first crack at 2000m but Matt Vella has always been adamant that he'll relish it. 3. Lackeen has finally drawn a barrier and if he can use it to settle closer, expect him to be thereabouts. Hasn't had much luck in his three Australian starts and sets up well to tackle 2000m fourth up. 5. Savoury has never raced better and will make his own luck. 1. Welsh Legend is a query with the gap between runs while 12. Our Bambino is 2400m back to 2000m. Is 14. Mr Gee going well enough? Has the talent.
How to play it: Achiever WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 4 - 1:15PM EMIRATES PARK DENISE'S JOY STAKES (1100 METRES)
7. Newsreader's Magic Millions maiden win flagged that she had turned a corner. The filly had always teased ability right from her eye-catching debut behind Macroura and Wild Ruler 12 months ago and now she is realising that potential. On the back of her dominant Gold Coast victory, in a race that has since provided nine subsequent winners, she scored an equally dominant win at Warwick Farm three weeks later. She has tuned up for her return by winning two trials, both in good style, and if it wasn't for the tricky draw, convinced she'd be a clear favourite. Bets case scenario she finds a back in a three wide running line but can still win sitting deep no cover.
Dangers: 16. Nags To Riches has won two of her three starts and comes off a dominant first up win at Gosford. Sahra ran third and has since franked the form. Draws inside and gets in on the minimum. 1. Ballistic Lover beat Nages To Riches last campaign but there was little between them. Talented speedster 14. Expat looks the leader, along with 11. La Foret, and will give a sight over the Rosehill 1100m. 3. Miss Canada maps well and has a little fitness edge on most of her rivals. 4. Mollycoddle still does a few things wrong and she might want further now second up but she'll be coming hard late. Chances right down the page here including 2. Majestic Shot and 6. Najmah.
How to play it: Newsreader WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"This filly has always teased ability, right from day one."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 13, 2021
BEST BET: @BradJGray is willing to gamble that this improving youngster can overcome a wide draw at @rosehillgardens on Saturday @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/cjP59yrIWs
Race 5 - 1:50PM INGLIS 3YO GUINEAS (1400 METRES)
The barrier does 6. Lennon absolutely no favours but it just might mean a bigger price. Simply can't let him go around at double figure odds on the strength of his win over 2. Exoboom in his first preparation. Lennon's two runs back this time in might look disappointing on paper but he found 1100m too sharp around the tight Canterbury track first up before being crowded on the fence second up over 1250m. The improvement this Les Bridge-trained horse showed out to 1400m at his second ever race start, with plenty of galloping room, see him a threat in this. Imagine this has been a target race for the gelding. Would be keener from a middle draw but over to you Andrew Adkins.
Dangers: Exoboom shrugged off being rolled at $1.60 at the provincials first up by tearing home from the rear to win the Hawkesbury Guineas. It was a big win. The pace suited but he gunned down Rainbow Connection despite the runner up getting an inside run. Will settle out the back again in this but there should be plenty of pressure up front. 1. Prime Star is exceptionally well weighted given he is 16 rating points clear of the second highest rated rival. Draws perfectly and ran third to Aegon in his only previous run over 1400m. It's been eight weeks since he ran midfield in the G1 Randwick Guineas but has trialled sweetly since.
How to play it: Lennon WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 6 - 2:30PM VINERY LUSKIN STAR STAKES (1300 METRES)
7. Lost And Running makes the leap from benchmark company into black type racing for the first time but it comes on the back of a demolition job at Randwick last start where he put four lengths on his rivals, and did it eased down. The four-year-old will be winning Group races off that effort. He was beaten by Enchanted Heart two back, with that horse since winning a Listed race herself last Saturday. Perhaps he didn't appreciate taking a sit on that occasion. The son of US stallion Per Incanto drops 5kg from last start, with the jump in grade, and the barrier doesn't look to be any disadvantage as there doesn't look to be another designated leader in the race so Tommy Berry will roll across in his own time.
Dangers: 4. Bandersnatch will get a cart across from Lost And Running if he wants it, to sit outside of the lead. Has been ridden more conservatively since being transferred to Team Hawkes, however, so that's no given. 1. Eleven Eleven also comes off a last start forgive having been posted throughout in the Hall Mark. The 1300m is on the short side for 5. Dealmaker but he'll be charging late and if he can hold any kind of spot from the low draw, he can run a hole. 9. Thorin is a talented import having start number one for David Payne that warrants respect.
How to play it: Lost And Running WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 7 - 3:10PM KIA ORA STUD ORTENSIA STAKES (1100 METRES)
6. Embracer was always in control first up in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush, which was the five-year-old's first run as a gelding. Tim Clark was happy to tuck Embracer just in behind the speed before exposing him turning for home. Punters Intelligence reveals that his 400-200 split of 10.80s was the quickest in the race, which is where he accelerated clear to pinch winning break to win by a comfortable margin. The son of Sebring handles all conditions, Clark has won three from seven aboard him and Embracer doesn't have to lead to win. With speed drawn inside and outside of him, that versatility gives Clark options. It's said ad nauseam, but you don't want to be too far away over the Rosehill 1100m.
Dangers: 13. Fituese is three from three first up, beating Hilo and Masked Crusader fresh last campaign. That was before being touched off by 3. California Zimbol down the Flemington straight. Like the way Fituese has trialled this time back and she is such a genuine mare. California Zimbol was wide the trip in the Sapphire last start so forgive her that and her 1100m record reads 6:3-0-2. Can only run well from the gate. 1. Tactical Advantage is 13:4-4-0 over the Rosehill 1100m. Just maps to be a long way back. 9. Albumin typically also saves his best for his home track. 15. Varda will improve on a wetter track so monitor the rating.
How to play it: Embracer WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 8 - 3:50PM TIE THE KNOT HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Banking on a hot speed playing into the hands of the Chris Waller-trained 5. Hulk. It took 13 starts for this four-year-old to crack his maiden and although he hasn't exactly been a prolific winner since, he has won another couple since then. His first up record reads 5:1-4-0 while his record with Tommy Berry on his back is an impressive 6:2-2-1. Like the way he cruised to the line for Berry in a recent Rosehill barrier trial, suggesting that he has returned at least as well as last preparation, which would see him competitive in this, and the drying Rosehill surface will be to his liking. He'll settle worse than midfield before unleashing late.
Dangers: 3. Mr Mosaic flies fresh so assuming that's why he is five weeks between runs. He ran third to Enchanted Heart and Lost And Running on that occasion and showed versatility in taking a sit. He'd looked a touch one dimensional prior. That's significant here as he's unlikely to cross speedster 8. De Grawin, who is undefeated in four runs under Joe Pride. All her form is over 1000m, however. 4. Salina Dreaming had a temp which saw her skip Gosford's feature meeting. This is a very winnable race for her on the strength of her first up win but she didn't fire at all second up. Take on trust. 11. Akasaki won this race in 2018 and 2019 and suspect it's been a long range target again. 15. Our Bellagio Miss and 1. Black Magnum rate mentions.
How to play it: Hulk WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 9 - 4:30PM LES BRIDGE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Don't think you'll get too many more chances to back 16. Count De Rupee in benchmark races. The three-year-old was beaten first up but he couldn't have done much more in defeat. Punters Intelligence reveals that he clocked a blistering 32.61s last 600m as he attempted to chase down tearaway leader Marway. The winner, of course, subsequently walked in at Wagga putting four lengths on his rivals in the Town Plate. Count De Rupee should be able to hold some kind of position from a perfect draw and on the strength of his return, could find himself chasing Group races in Queensland next start if he happens to win this. The Price stable have a big opinion of this three-year-old and suspect that'll be vindicated here.
Dangers: 15. Vitesse can only improve on what she did first up and she'll roll forward to make her own luck. Has won two of her past three second up and the 1400m is her pet trip. All four of her career wins have come over this distance. 10. Smart Image's eighth in the same race as Count De Rupee wasn't as bad as it reads on paper. He'll run better than his price suggests and the drying track enhances his claims as he doesn't go a yard in heavy ground. 12. Super might be ready to show his best again. It was deep into his last preparation that he found career best form and now fourth up over 1400m, albeit off a six week break but with two trials, he could surprise a few here.
How to play it: Count De Rupee WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
As impressive on the clock as it was to the eye ?
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 13, 2021
The answer is yes when it comes to Count De Rupee's first up run behind Marway @BradJGray @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/uPX8jh1Mvo
