3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Monday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a soft track.
Race 1 - 1:25PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE PLATE (1400 METRES)
9. Hoover Lucy has a good chance to break through now after two runs back and an improved showing last time at Gosford. While beaten favourite she did a lot of chasing there and 1400m will suit.
Dangers: 7. Sir Savaluca is an up and comer who found the line strongly late first-up over 1100m at Wyong. Bred to appreciate this sort of distance, draws one and he's well worth keeping safe. 2. Edmonton drew wide and went back to last at Kembla at his second start and was never a winning chance. But he did made a heap of ground into fourth in a good form race so he stays under notice here. 1. Castlereagh Kid wasn't fancied on debut at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago but he ran above expectation to finish second. Looked like a bit more ground would suit him but he could be placed.
How to play it: Hoover Lucy WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 2 - 2:00PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (2110 METRES)
3. Dhakuri was never seriously troubled in winning a Class 1 at Newcastle second-up suggesting he's going to relish the extra distance. Showed promise last time in and if he's taken that step he looms large over this race.
Dangers: 1. Torrens has been outclassed in Group 3 races at his last two starts so is better suited here. If he produces the performance that took him to an easy Randwick win three starts back he can win this. 4. Shadow Girl has come back in good form in easier races and gave a good sight up on the speed in the Bathurst Cup, holding on for third. Likely rolls forward and could be in the finish. 2. Our Bambino is fitter for three runs back from a spell and while safely held at Gosford he did make a little late ground. Best form is good enough to put him in the finish.
How to play it: Dhakuri WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 3 - 2:35PM VINERY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
1. Aslav won on debut then ran well behind Gleneagles so showed a bit of talent in his first rep. Latest trial was handy, finishing on nicely from off the pace and with a bit of speed likely here if he gets a shot at them he could go close.
Dangers: 6. Speech raced near the speed and railed through then kicked away to win easily on debut at Newcastle a month ago. Has trialled since then and if she is above average she should be hard to beat. 4. Battleton sat back and rounded up a small field at his first start at Wyong. While there is a question mark over some of the form behind him he won well and could have upside. 5. Your Too Good seemed to go too fast in front and weakened to run last at Gosford but she did win well first-up and that's more like her form. Blinkers come off so don't be surprise if she improves.
How to play it: Aslav E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 - 3:10PM CACTUS IMAGING HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
6. Onedayclosertoyou is racing very well and has some excellent form around her. Narrowly beaten by Never Been Kissed two starts back then easy all the way winner up to 1500m also at Newcastle. Should find a spot on pace here and be hard to beat.
Dangers: 7. Rock My Wand wasn't suited by leading at Kembla last time so forgive that effort. Her form prior suggested a win might not be too far away and the sting out of the track is a plus. Capable of improvement. 3. French Bonnet seemed to have her chance first-up at Kensington behind Promise Of Success. Happy to say she'll be fitter and won second-up last time in. Can do better. 5. Atonement was Group placed as a three-year-old last season and it wouldn't surprise if she runs on into a placing at least first-up at this trip with a nice trial under her belt. Watch betting.
How to play it: Onedayclosertoyou WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 - 3:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Big watch on 5. Agrimony who is an import on his local debut for Chris Waller. He's had no public trials but contested two jump outs in Victoria, not pressured at all in the first and strode out to win the latest again unpressured. Market a guide but this is winnable.
Dangers: 2. So United won very well first-up at 1200m then straight to the mile and stuck on well behind Shibli in this class at Gosford. Better for it and could be harder to get past this time. 6. Ma And Pa is unbeaten this time in and held off subsequent winner The Denzel in a Class 1 at Wyong recently. Much harder here but flying and is one of the main chances. 9. Lease took off a fair way from home and kept going when winning second-up at Wyong at 1350m. Had support there too. Only attempt at this trip was in Group 1 company and is worth including.
How to play it: Agrimony WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 - 4:20PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
7. Suave was far from disgraced first-up beaten under two lengths by High Supremacy at Randwick. Tracked wide when it wasn't the place to be so to run so well is promising. Draws one and should have favours here. Hard to beat.
Dangers: 3. Lord Ardmore is an ex-Kiwi with Chris Waller and while he ran last in his latest trial it was a pleasing effort as he strode out under his own steam. Ran some nice races against some of NZ's better horses earlier this year and bears close watching. 1. Soami comes through the same race as Suave, he led them up and weakened late to run fifth. Not sure leading is his go and his form prior was definitely good enough to give him another chance. 6. Escaped ran them off their feet in an easy all the way Kensington win a few weeks back. Wide draw of no consequence as he will roll forward again and could take catching.
How to play it: Suave WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 7 - 4:55PM RANVET HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
8. Valaquenta is so much better than his latest run would suggest. Had no hope when back and wide at Randwick when the inside was favoured. Big winner first-up and with a bit of speed on here he can be hard to hold out on his best form.
Dangers: 2. Varda can be very hit and miss, she was fair first-up last time in then won second-up. Hit the line well in her latest trial at Hawkesbury, draws well and has James McDonald to rise. Definite chance if she performs. 4. Marway was scratched from Randwick last weekend to run here and will be fitter for that first-up fifth in the same race as Valaquenta. Has won at this track and trip and if he finds the lead he can take running down. 3. Enchanted Heart beat Lost And Running first-up last time in and she ran a nice second to Spiranac in a Scone trial recently. Sting out of the ground would be a plus for her and she's not to be left out.
How to play it: Valaquenta E/W ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 8 - 5:30PM XXXX HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
1. Zoushack plummets in class on an excellent first-up second at Kembla a few weeks back. He stuck on very well behind the smart Count De Rupee and while up in weight he rolls forward and a repeat effort sees him tough to beat.
Dangers: 2. Newsreader is a talent on her fay and won easily here two starts ago in February. May not have liked the ground in Listed company at Rosehill at only other start back in May, also pulled up mildly lame. Gets 5.5kg off the top weight after the claim and is dangerous. 6. Atlantic King has the ability to be in the finish of this first-up. Ran well early last prep then tapered off a bit. Given a decent break and fitter for two trials he's one to keep an eye on. 4. Bowery Breeze won at this track and distance in June on a heavy track and Midway form since then has been mixed up as far as 1600m. Some give in the track is handy and no surprise if she runs well back onto her home track.
How to play it: Zoushack WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
