3 minute read

The rail is out 5m from the 1600m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The form has been done for a good track.

1. Whatsin ran on from the tail of the field at Bathurst last start to finish third behind Spiranac, a mare with a live chance in the upcoming Kosciuszko. The wide draw dictated her settling position and she was also five weeks between runs. That $80,000 Panorama was a very deep race. Much prefer to trust the form from that open company country feature over a Class 2 Highway Handicap won by The Fossil where there was half a length between the first six home. Prior to her eye-catching placing Whatsin charged home behind Commando Hunt in a Highway and should have beaten Kattegat the start prior at Forbes. She has never raced beyond 1400m but she gives the impression she'll get the extra trip, particularly from the perfect draw and with Hugh Bowman riding. Surprised she isn't shorter.

Dangers: 7. Mikado has been airborne since being transferred to Coffs Harbour-based trainer Joanne Hardy. The four-year-old arrived an eight start maiden but has now won three from 13. He was posted wide throughout at Eagle Farm last start in a BM75 yet boxed on to be beaten a length. Rolls forward to make his own luck. If you're making a case for The Fossil, 9. So Say You, 2. Lord Desanimaux and 16. Chewie Two all have to be in the conversation. As does 2. Blaazay with his form tying in through So Say You. 4. Bahamut's career has been a roller coaster of hits and misses but he clearly has talent. The gate looks tricky for another of the fancies in 17. Freedom Square.

How to play it: Whatsin WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

10. Different Strokes has built a brilliant record with two wins and three placings from his five starts, as he marches toward a berth in the inaugural Four Pillars. Has won two of his past three with the defeat coming at the hands of Jojo Was A Man at Kembla Grange over 1500m. The Kim Waugh-trained four-year-old appeared two weeks later at Wyong back to 1350m and always travelled like the winner. Hugh Bowman camped just in behind a genuine speed before winning by a widening 2.8 lengths at the finish. Bowman sticks now as the gelding progresses to Midway company. There is a query around what he has been beating up at the provincials but he has been gapping them and he did run a slashing third to Military Expert at Newcastle back in August.

Dangers: If 13. Divine Breath's race sense matched up comparatively with her raw talent she'd have a better record than one win from seven starts. It's not a fair reflection of her ability. The four-year-old charged late to run second to Beep Test first up. Forgive 9. Cream Rises her first up flop. She was wide and working too early around the tight Gosford track and knocked up. She'd be on top from a better draw, particularly after Quantico franked the form. There is good speed for her to come from well back but from last? The wash up from 2. Always Sure last start was that he failed to see out the 1800m. Has been freshened up since and comes back in trip. Tim Clark sticks and draws to be cuddled up and exposed late like at Randwick two starts ago, winning a BM78. 12. Akhtar beat a subsequent winner last start.

How to play it: Different Strokes WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

9. Perfect Radiance has relished getting out to staying trips. It's revived her career. The daughter of Snitzel showed a lot as a two and three-year-old but lost her way for a preparation. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott took over training her this campaign and at her second start for the stable dominated a Newcastle 1850m from the front, smashing the clock. She then backed that up at Wyong out to 2100m which saw her skip a couple of grades to be thrown into the Listed Wyong Cup. She finished closer to last than first but Inverloch set a frantic tempo up front which played into the hands of the backmarkers. Forgive her that. Has been freshened up since then, sent back to the trials and placed back in BM78 company. Gives a sight at each way odds.

Dangers: 2. Herman Hesse has hit the ground running in Australia with the globetrotting import, having raced in the UK and France in the past, winning two of his three starts for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Ran his rivals into the ground at Mornington last start from in front. 7. Solar Apex has returned in great order, winning both starts back, the latest of those at $1.45. This is harder but his Achilles heel in the past was his lack of acceleration. James McDonald rides again. 3. Yiyi hasn't finished out of the placings in all six runs this preparation, with the four-year-old in the right spot to take advantage of a slow run race at Rosehill last start.

How to play it: Perfect Radiance EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

2. Coastwatch held down third in the G1 Golden Rose last start and with Captivant scratched, instead heading to the Caulfield Guineas, that's clearly the strongest form reference heading into this race. The best thing about Coastwatch, however, is that he is still trending upwards. Every start he has had this preparation he has crept forward to another level. That's reflected in his benchmark rating jumping from a 65 to 92 in the space of three runs. James McDonald jumps back on, having held this colt in very high regard from the get-go and out to 1500m, back in grade and at set weights, he looks well set up. Chris Waller has always said this the three-year-old has the makings of a potential top line miler. Has no excuses here.

Dangers: 4. Brigantine just got the better of Military Expert in the Caulfield Guineas last start and a straight line can be drawn to Coastwatch through that reference. Coastwatch beat Military Expert 0.8L in the Ming Dynasty. That puts him in the finish. The John O'Shea-trained 1. Cotohele was entitled to resume a winner at Goulburn first up. He won well, however, and is still untapped. The booking of Hugh Bowman is significant, as is another dry track with his obvious past failure coming on a heavy surface. In the context of how Randwick played across the meeting, 5. Akihiro's latest effort was enormous. It was a Midway at BM72 level and leaps into Group Two company but expecting him to the fighting out the minors.

How to play it: Coastwatch WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

The one constant throughout the short career of 2. Paulele is his Randwick form. None of his rivals have got near him at the track in three runs. The most recent of those was in the Rosebud where he put subsequent Golden Rose winner In The Congo, as well as Remarque, to the sword. Sure, the margin was flattered by the placegetters having interrupted runs home but with 59kg on his back, it still remains one of the strongest three-year-old performances of the spring. It's much easier to excuse his subsequent defeat to In The Congo at Kembla with the benefit of hindsight before Home Affairs got control in the Heritage a fortnight ago rendering it mission impossible for Paulele. He posted a 32.77s last 600m in defeat and broke 11s his last 200m. He couldn't have done much more.

Dangers: 9. A Very Fine Red enjoyed a cosy run in the Heritage before running a near identical last 200m split to Paulele. Maps to get a very similar run in this, perhaps even a pair closer, which should see her at least repeat that performance. She's the knockout. 6. King Of Sparta got the back of Paulele in the Heritage but couldn't sustain his sprint. 1. Sword Of State was a complete forgive from that same race, travelling deep throughout and being first up on the back of a setback. There's even a little case for 7. Overpass to run better than is odds suggest. Outside of the Heritage, 4. Gleaneagles is off a freshen having clocked the fastest last 600m in the Run To The Rose while 3. O'President can't be completely dismissed.

How to play it: Paulele WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

9. Mirra Vision has never raced better and the timing looks perfect to give her a shot out to the mile. She sat on the shoulder of Madam Legend in the Tibbie Stakes at Newcastle last start but was outsprinted when the leader quickened up in the straight. She looked certain to finish out of the placings yet rallied again to run second. Punters Intelligence reveals that her last 200m of 11.38s was the second quickest in the race. That screams that she'll relish further. The five-year-old was five weeks between runs there too, having won at Randwick in dominant fashion the start prior. The wide draw looks tricky on paper but with speed inside and outside of her, expect Sam Clipperton to be positive early and park just in behind the lead two. Could work out perfectly.

Dangers: 10. Amarelinha lumps 59kg for a reason. She the best credentialed horse here. She ran ninth in the G3 Bill Ritchie but the race was a disaster for her. She was shuffled back in a slowly run race, crowded upon straightening and then forced to work home in the worst part of the track. She was only beaten a length by the subsequent Epsom quinella. 3. Kiku is another coming off a forgive run. She too was shuffled back, held up and did her best work once the bird had already flown. She is already a Group Three winner over the Randwick mile. There is a race for 8. Grace And Harmony very soon. Not convinced this is it but stick with her. Genuine miler types 6. Charleise and 11. Le Lude for the exotics.

How to play it: Mirra Vision WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

11. Equation gets a lot in his favour in this. All we can take away from his first up ninth is that he presents fitter having had that 1100m run under his belt. He was shuffled back throughout the race and found himself in an impossible spot. He didn't have an official trial either. Can bounce back straight out to 1300m and from the low draw. Tommy Berry reunites with the son of Press Statement too. Berry has ridden Equation in three of his four career wins. Maps to park just in behind the speed and he showed last preparation that he has the quality to win a race of this depth before measuring up in the Golden Eagle. It's not only the map that points to Equation fighting out the finish but the fact that many of his key rivals are coming back in trip.

Dangers: 6. Ellsberg took a sit first up and scrambled home. Job done. How dynamic will he be over 1300m though? 14. Vangelic will keep him company up front, coming off a Golden Pendant win in which she controlled from the front. 4. Amish Boy had no luck in the G1 Rupert Clarke last start and was swamped by Masked Crusader prior to that. Would be very keen on the chances of 12. High Supremacy second up out to the mile but over 1300m, not so much. 3. Prime Star comes out of a deep Bill Ritchie and this is the most suitable race he has run in all spring. 8. Count De Rupee clocked sharp late splits when putting away his rivals first up but there is a lot more depth here. 2. Exoboom, 10. Blondeau… the list goes on.

How to play it: Equation EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Fillies have an outstanding recent record in the Spring Champion Stakes and 11. Never Been Kissed looks well placed to add to that list. Three of the past five winners have come via the Flight Stakes, with the latest being Montefilia, and although Never Been Kissed won at $41 there was a lot to like about how she rode a genuine speed before clocking a last 200m only bettered by the runner up Hinged. Back 2.3 lengths away in third was Startantes who a week earlier wasn't beaten far by Anamoe and Artorius. It all ties in rather neatly. Can't find a lot of speed on paper here which could see Regan Bayliss dictate on a very fit three-year-old in the form stable of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. None of the colts or geldings have announced themselves as superstars this season either.

Dangers: History also tells us that the Gloaming Stakes form doesn't often throw up too many curve balls. The form holds pretty true. The last 13 Spring Champion Stakes winners to come via the Gloaming, dating back to 1994, all ran first or second in the traditional 1800m lead up. 1. Head Of State showed a turn of speed from the 400-200m that won him the race. Expect James McDonald to make 2. Profondo work from outside of him to cross early. Profondo threw the Gloaming away with waywardness. Remember, however, that was only his second ever start ad he was jumping from 1400m to 1800m with three weeks between runs. 3. Alegron and 4. Benaud to fight out the minors.

How to play it: Never Been Kissed WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

12. Belluci Babe should get a lovely trail in this second up out to 1200m on the back of an arrogant Gosford win where she carried 59.5kg. The five-year-old has always shown Group class ability but only now at start 13 she gets her first taste at this level. Trainer Bjorn Baker's placement to date has seen her win five of her 11 starts, with a further 5 minor placings. Digging deeper into that record, she is 0.3 of a length away from being unbeaten on good tracks. She is an explosive sprinter. Even in defeat at the backend of last preparation she did some remarkable things. Her closing splits when third to Lillemor and Malkovich at Randwick were exceptional. Her benchmark rating suggests she isn't the best horse in this but there's a strong case to be made that she's one of the best suited.

Dangers: 9. Wandabaa is such a genuine mare. Wet or dry, first up or fifth up, she just gives it everything. She didn't deserve to end last campaign winless. She found Adelong a touch too sharp over 1100m twice, ran a narrow third to Fasika and Entriviere, the list goes on. 5. Minhaaj has her first run for John O'Shea having trialled particularly well. Draws soft and James McDonald rides. 10. Great News had her chance in the Tibbie behind 4. Madam Legend but has been freshened up and is back to 1200m, a trip she is undefeated over. 7. Yamazaki is a knockout if the leaders overdo it. 2. Rocha Clock looks to be sneaky flying off her trials but second up 1400m will be her go. The map looks very awkward for 1. Sweet Deal . 13. Electric Girl ? 14. Geist ? Plenty of chances.

How to play it: Belluci Babe WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

This race is made to order for 3. On The Lead . 1000m, dry track, low draw and James McDonald booked. It's not a particularly deep BM78 either. The four-year-old resumed at Kembla Grange back in late August behind Andermatt where despite running fifth, clocked the second quickest last 600m split across the meeting. That was on a soft surface too. He then drew awkwardly at Gosford last start with Belluci Babe jumping on his back and proving too good at the finish. He beat the rest comfortably and the winner is a smart mare lining up in the G3 Nivison earlier on the Randwick card so we'll get a reference 30 minutes earlier. Was Group Two placed behind Wild Ruler as a three-year-old. Just need him to jump on terms. If he does, confident he's got these covered with plenty of speed engaged.

Dangers: 5. Kinloch won two from four last preparation and knocked off Sixgun over 1000m in one of those. That was with James McDonald on board. He was niggled to win a recent Muswellbrook trial but like the way he responded and it was the fastest 800m trial of the set. 12. Marnix only has 52kg on his back but is only a Geelong maiden winner at this point. Ran third behind Kiku and Bazooka the last time we saw him at the races over 1300m. Worried he'll find a couple too sharp over 1000m. 10. Leo has been beautifully placed here by Mark Schmetzer taking advantage of this gelding's record of 4:3-0-0 over the Randwick 1000m. All four of those were in Highway Handicaps.

How to play it: On The Lead WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS