3 minute read
Racing returned to the turf last Wednesday in Launceston and we can look forward to an eight race program this week. With large fields set to run again this week there are plenty of runners to assess, and as a result, plenty of value in the Staking Strategy. Expecting the meeting to be run on a good 4.
R1 Chilli 90.1 Fm Maiden, 1200m
The night's racing kicks off with a 1200m maiden, with runners having 48 starts for just eight placings from the runners.
Cameron Thompson's Fortessa (7) probably will not find an easier maiden than this again. The mare ran wide throughout first-up, and was only 2.5L from the winner and with the 4kg claim of Tayah Stalker, should go forward with not much early pace on paper to contend with, and give them something to chase down.
Bondi Tiff (6), despite some ordinary runs recently, should look to be on pace, which is where I'd want to be at this track in this particular field. If Liandra Gray can have her running back to somewhere close to her Victorian form, she is capable of winning this.
Gee Gees Rebel (2) is only lightly raced with the 2 starts, both on the synthetic, in much harder maidens than this. I've have him mapping for a nice run behind the leaders and with any natural improvement and being on turf for the first time, he's one I'm expecting to see improvement in.
I like Babes Boy (1) back in distance and fresh. The 6yo gelding started shorter than $5 in three of the four runs on turf and within 5L of some decent horses who went on to win more races last prep. If he can jump away better and find a nice spot midfield he could put this field away with a similar run to what we saw multiple times last prep.
Staking Strategy: There's a few question marks around horses such as Bondi Tiff and Babes Boy for mine. I have no doubt their best wins this race, but I'm settling on the runner that I think I can trust the most here in Fortessa. I'm very confident he sits outside the leader or potentially even leads and wont ever get a better chance to break his maiden than this one, happy to take the $4 it opened at. First 4 (7,1,6,2) 3 units to win on Fortessa (7)
R2 Ladbrokes Punter Assist Maiden, 1200m
Another maiden without much prior form to mention and a combined 48 starts for just 4 placings.
Bell Ringer Boy (1) has had two trials leading into his debut today. The first trial was okay, not fully tested and a bit green and only 2 lengths off the winner before winning his next trial well and if there's market support that would give me confidence to suggest he's capable of winning on debut.
Need's Toasting's (3) form last prep was solid enough to be a chance here. He did get out to 2150m so whether he'll be ready to win first up over 1200m is the query but I liked his run over 1400m at this track and a repeat of that performance would have him at least a place chance in this field.
Heza Charmer (2) has trialled three times leading into this race with the most recent a win over 1400m at Longford where he missed the start. Raced three wide the trip although was pushed to the line so that suggests to me he will be ready to win first up here. He has the best exposed form of the field and will be hard to beat.
Rockin Ringo (4) had his only start in Victoria but trialed nicely at Longford, finishing 2nd around some horses that would likely win this race. Based off that trial I'm confident he'll run really well here and we might get a nice price.
Staking Strategy: I liked the trial of Rockin Ringo (4) and who's only had the one start for a 5yo so I'm happy to have something small on him at the longer odds he opened at but will also be considering Heza Charmer (2) who really should be winning this race. First 4 (2,4,3,1) 5 units to win on Heza Charmer (2). 0.5 eachway on Rockin Ringo (4)
R3 Bishops Class 1 Hcp, 1400m
I loved the way Incrinimate (1) raced wide the trip but still had plenty to give chasing down Need To Be Unique to win in Devonport last start. He has drawn a better barrier today with most of the early speed on the outside and I can see McCoull gleaming a more economical run, leading them up.
The extra run for Need To Be Unique (2) could possibly have the gelding better ready for the step up to 1400m, but the way Incrinimate and Need To Be Unique both finished off their 1150m races suggests 1400m would be ideal now.
Tavisplash (5) is lightly raced having only its third start here and trialed under no pressure at all to just be run down late over 1400m at Longford. I think she can probably go onto better races compared to a number of this field who we probably know how good they are already. She'll be hard to beat.
Gee Gee Real Deal (9) was good first up here last week, settling midfield and producing a strong finish to be just 1.1L off the winner over 1200m. The step up to 1400m should suit.
Staking Strategy: I believe Tavisplash (5) and Incriminate (1) should quinella this race and I'm leaning towards Incriminate knowing he's fit enough and ready to win here. Tavisplash will get out to further and be a better horse later this prep so I'd be following closely 2nd/3rd up. First 4 (1,5,2,9) 3 units to win on Incriminate. 1 Unit Incriminate/Tavisplash Quinella
R4 Field Family 3yo Maiden, 1100m
Power Magnum (5) was one of the better 2yo's to remain a maiden last season. His effort behind Turk Warrior first up showed that. He'll be up on pace despite the wide gate and be very hard to beat in this field.
Dawn Eagle (7) is drawn well and should bounce out and lead them. With a rails run and carrying only 53kg I'd expect Erika Bourne Bourke to be giving them something to chase down and should be running at least into the placings.
Of the untried 3yo's Queenborough Flyer (9) looks to be a very exciting prospect for trainer/jockey Siggy Carr. Was very impressive winning both her lead up trials including a nice win against probably her two biggest threats in this race, Power Magnum and Dawn Eagle. In her previous trial she managed to better the promising galloper Geegeeluckystar, who was a narrow 2nd in a Class 1 last week and Carr will be confident of a trainer/jockey special here.
I think the three already mentioned will provide the trifecta but Gee Gees Buzz (4) showed enough improvement after a spell first up to suggest he could round out the top four.
Staking Strategy: I'm pretty set on the top 3 here for the trifecta (9,5,7)). The race experience of Power Magnum (5) will account for something, but Queenborough Flyer (9) looks to be very promising and I'm happy with the value on offer early. First 4 (9,5,7,4) 4 units to win on Queenborough Flyer (9). 1 Unit Queenborough Flyer/Power Magnum Quinella
R5 Happy 50th Birthday Exciting Mab Mdn/cl1, 1600m
Freelancer (2) showed a lot of promise in his 3yo season, running into some smart horses and has come back and found one better in its last two races. Should be better suited to the Launceston track and will be able to be up on pace, if not lead them early, and this appears an easier Class 1 than previously contested this prep. Should be very hard to beat.
Northern Spirit (10) should enjoy a nice rail run, possibly leading or just a pair back and will have its chance if good enough.
Anacreon (3) was only 1.2L from the winner on her Tasmanian debut and with 14 placings to go with its one win in NSW, I suspect it will still have some wins left to come. May find itself spotting the leaders a distance at the home turn.
Kay Oh Ell (8) is drawn well and should receive an economical run behind the leaders and is a place chance.
Port Berry (11) does not win out of turn but has shown some consistent form recently, albeit all on synthetic, but she's never placed on the turf.
Delegated (4) is another who made her Tasmanian debut last start and will appreciate being back on turf with its best form on a soft track and would have top 3 aspirations.
Staking Strategy: Freelancer (2) is the horse with the best form, returning to Launceston where often the on pace runners are advantaged. Limited other natural front runners here to make him work too hard early, so a clean start should see him very hard to chase down. First 4 (2,10,8,4) 5 units to win on Freelancer (2)
R6 Mercure Sunshine Coast Kawana Waters Bm76 Hcp, 1400m
This is the most exciting race of the night where I could make a case for every runner in the field. With the recent track refreshing, I expect it to be playing fairly and the winner could come from anywhere!
Scott Brunton has opted for the 3kg claim of Ianish Luximon here on Queen La Diva (2). She raced below expectations last start but she should definitely relish being back at Launceston and likes to lead. She may have to race outside either Sir Simon or Mywordis, taking a sit in behind them. I prefer her chances if she can give them something to chase here.
Sir Simon (3) has drawn perfectly in barrier 2 and will most likely try to lead. Has had an easy trial leading into this and as usual, the market will tell us which of the Brunton runners to invest into, closer to jump time.
Mywordis (5) is super consistent and looking for a hat trick of wins for Drew Tyson. Should be up on pace and have his chance if good enough.
The Risk Factor (6) won 4 in a row here to finish off last prep, all over 2100m. I'm happy to wait until he gets out over further but if the leaders go to hard he will have enjoyed a cosy rail run and is capable of a big finish.
Siggy Carr has Coronation Glade (7) and Coronation Pia (8) both returning from spells and I'd suspect she would be happy with a place for either here.Both likely to be spotting the leaders a few lengths at the home turn, Coronation Glade did string 3 wins in a row at this track last prep over 1400m/1600m and is the better chance of the two. However, I believe both would be better betting prospects 2nd up in something slightly easier.
Overplay (5) showed us he still has a big finish last prep and if something is going to win from the back half of the field, I like him.
Arty Lucas (1) is making his Tasmanian debut after running around at Caulfield and Flemington last prep. He'll appreciate the drop in grade here and you cannot dismiss a horse with that quality, although his best will be over further.
Staking Strategy: Both Brunton runners should be best positioned up on pace and the late market is always a very good guide on which horse from that stable is preferred. Purely from a form point of view and the better value, I'm selecting Queen La Diva (2). A horse with the ability of Arty Lucas (1) going around in an 8 horse field at the longer odds on offer early, may provide value. First 4 (2,3,5,1) 2.5 units to win on Queen La Diva (2). 0.5 units eachway on Arty Lucas (1)
R7 Kreglinger Wine Estates Bm68 Hcp, 1200m
Red Letter Lady (5) is a very promising galloper and I know connections have a high opinion of the mare. Her trackwork around much higher rated horses has been great. After a good win 1st up, I'm expecting her to go on to better races this prep. Should be very hard to beat with a nice run in behind the leaders up on pace.
Rising Hsiang (2) was perfectly placed going through his grades at Devonport and his chances are aided here from barrier 1. Utilising Codi Jordans 1.5kg claim will give itself every chance if good enough.
Tough Boy (4) loves this track and was super consistent last prep. Has drawn well in barrier 2 and can fire fresh.
Invincible Rock (1) has put in many good runs here The wide barrier and expected hot tempo will test 1st up but Siggy Carr knows best how to ride her horses and could run into the placings.
Ivoryman (9) and Sellick (8) are two I'd be looking at 2nd/3rd up so I'll keeping an eye on how they have come back from a spell here.
Vivilici (7) had no luck last start and I'm putting a line through that. Her best is good enough to win this and if the leaders go too hard she will be poised for a big finish and could be in the finish.
Staking Strategy: Red Letter Lady (5) in my opinion is the horse with the most ability in this race and I have her marked as favourite. The strength of the field means some good prices are available and I think she should receive a cosy run just behind the leaders. First 4 (5,4,7,2) 5 units to win on Red Letter Lady (5)
R8 Examiner 0-62 Hcp, 1200m
Our Shinkansen (5) hasn't had the most economical runs of late and if Brendan Mccoull can find a nice spot midfield with a bit of luck she can be winning after many consistent runs.
Generalmaintenance (2) will likely just be using this as a kick off point to its prep and I'll be following once he's out over 1600m+.
Weekend Whiskey (1) has been freshened and is still putting in good runs despite being an 8yo. From barrier 2 will likely lead them up here and again when Siggy Carr is riding her own it gives me a bit more confidence and I had it marked as favourite here.
Gee Gee Als Prince (6) is lightly raced and open to improvement since we last saw him five months ago. Should receive a nice run in behind the leaders from barrier 5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 3yo in the finish here, off the back of a nice trial win at Devonport a few weeks ago.
Seguimentos (9) has strung together four placings together in a row, never seeming to have that bit of luck required. The mare is usually coming from the back half of the field but from barrier 6, with not a lot of early speed on paper, she could give herself every chance here with a midfield run.
Needadollarbill will need a bit of luck from the wide barrier but his best form is good enough to be winning this if a few things go its way.
Gee Gees Jennia and Gee Gee Ace High are carrying just 52.5kg and 50kg and if they are ridden positively are two at long odds I wouldn't be surprised to see running better than the market suggests.
Staking Strategy: Weekend Whiskey (1) ticks all the boxes here for me. Freshened up, drawn perfectly without much early speed to contend with, Siggy Carr riding, I'm confident in saying a run somewhere around his last few efforts sees it winning here. Main danger is Gee Gee Al's Prince (6) with improvement and will win races at some stage this prep. First 4 (1,6,5,3) 4 units to win on Weekend Whiskey (1). 1 unit to win on Gee Gee Al's Prince (6)
