3 minute read

Track likely Soft 7 and rail True.

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1100m):

The two-year-olds light the fuse on a strong meeting, and virtually all of them are on debut. Very keen on striking Irish-bred filly 10. Portray who can hit the ground running from a low draw. Was restrained to sit wide in a trial here 17 days ago, but cruised past them with ridiculous ease under a tight hold. By multiple Group 1-winning star Ribchester out of a Street Cry mare, bred to handle the going and confident she's one right out of the box.

Dangers: Promising Pierro filly 8. Paris Dior charged home on debut narrowly missing a youngster who cost plenty as a yearling. Leading rider goes on, and so do winkers. Watch the betting on Snitzel colt 2. Current King off a trial win; while included in exotics Snitzel filly 16. McCann if she gets a start who was a length back from the top selection in that trial; and Invader gelding 7. Vaderzan who debuts behind a smart trial win claiming 3kg.

How to play it: Portray to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1100m):

It's taken a while to get NZ-bred three-year-old 1. Sneaky Shark to the races this side of the Tasman having not started since beating all bar the winner in the Listed 2YO Karaka Millions last January. Has been gelded since switching from the Jamie Richards camp to John O'Shea at Randwick, and with two forward trials under his belt and a stack of gear changes, is the one to beat.

Dangers: Expecting sharp improvement second-up from four-year-old 2. Stormy Legend who only did his best work late as a hot favorite at Kembla on debut. Must respect 3. Solvere who defied his big price on debut three weeks ago hitting the line hard; while Show A Heart mare 5. Kalahari Heart is bred to handle wet tracks, and clear best of the rest on debut behind two recent trials.

How to play it: Sneaky Shark to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 3YO FILLIES MAIDEN HCP (1100m):

Very much with Hinchinbrook filly 4. Tick Tick Tick who makes her debut off two smart trial wins for a high class stable, the latest clocking one of the slickest times for the final 600m. Bred to handle the ground and form jockey sticks for the real thing with a claim.

Dangers: Another first starter with two trials wins, Press Statement three-year-old 3. Super Vogue is an obvious threat, and also bred to thrive on rain-affected ground. Loved the way provincial filly 1. Abuela chased home a dominant and heavily backed winner first-up at Gosford, and drew to get a soft trail here.

How to play it: Tick Tick Tick to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 3YO & UP FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1550m):

Tricky tactical battle in a smallish field. Talented four-year-old 2. Twice On Sunday roared home to win a country BM 74 before not far away in a similar provincial race as this. Can be a little hard to catch, but has a superior closing 400m, and her best is good enough.

Dangers: Front-running four-year-old 1. Belle Espoir (also accepted for Rosehill on Saturday) won two straight at the provincials before puncturing badly over the mile at Warwick Farm, but has since won a trial. Big weight was quickly off-set with the booking of a 3kg claimer, and she's at her best on rain-affected ground. Another four-year-old and dual Rosehill acceptor 4. Sally Pops was right behind the placegetters in that same mile race as the top selection after cruising home in easier company at Canberra. Include three-year-old 5. Lady Proisir with a key gear adjustment; and improving 6. Awesome Choice second-up; in wider exotics.

How to play it: Twice On Sunday to win.

Race 5 CHRISTMAS CLASSIC QUALITY (1200m):

Now the Listed feature sprint, and it's a good class field. Loved the way high strike-rate six-year-old 1. Special Reward powered home third-up and four weeks between runs to win the Listed Razor Sharp at big odds. Up in weight but top hoop takes the ride, and normally once striking winning form, he holds it big time. Has a 58 percent success rate on soft tracks from seven starts.

Dangers: Capable 2. Southern Lad is well over the odds coming back from a deeper Listed feature at Doomben on Boxing Day when he made up late ground. Probably looking for further, but few will be hitting the line harder. Tough seven-year-old 3. Prime Candidate has been up for a while, and boxed on strong in a good class Saturday race. Draws to do less work here, and drops a significant 4kg in weight. Lightly-raced and high class provincial seven-year-old 6. Through The Cracks has been off the scene for more than a year. Has oodles of ability and a smart fresh record, although trials were only fair, needs plenty of pace on to chase and likely not suited in this smaller field.

How to play it: Special Reward to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 4YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1900m):

Out over more distance for a fairly open battle. Imported four-year-old stallion 3. Otyrar attacked the line late to just miss first-up on his Australian debut, but then flat as a biscuit on Boxing Day in a similar race. Longer trip is an obvious bonus, and he can open his Down Under account here, unless the stable chooses a strong assignment at Rosehill on Saturday.

Dangers: Progressive four-year-old 6. Remus has closed off well in three runs this prep, and bolted in only previous start on a heavy surface. Stablemate four-year-old to top selection 2. Karlstad disappointed here three weeks back, but better when ridden closer and should react in these conditions being by a prolific wet-track dual Group 1 Doncaster winner; while 7. Always On Show draws to get a sweet trail fifth-up.

How to play it: Otyrar to win and quinella 3 and 6. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 3YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 SPRINT (1100m):

Got a stack of time for high class provincial four-year-old 4. Miracle Day who can make it four from four this prep, although another one who may go to Rosehill for a deeper Saturday race. After twice winning from just off the speed, showed his versatility on this track four weeks ago, leading all the way through heavy ground in commanding fashion.

Dangers: Exciting four-year-old 1. Conscript has taken huge strides this prep winning his last three all from the front, and was preferred here to Rosehill. Has had four weeks since putting a space on them here early in the straight, although he rises back up 3kg in weight despite a claim. Although drawn wide out, promising three-year-old 12. Kickatorp resumes in a winnable race behind two pleasing trials. Has enough tactical speed to get over, and thrives on rain-affected ground; while 6. Damaged is over the odds fifth-up; and 3. Accelerato is always a knock-out player at odds second-up in conditions he loves.

How to play it: Miracle Day to win and trifecta 1,4,12/1,3,4,6,12/1,3,4,6,12. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 5YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1550m):

By far the toughest and most open race of the meeting is saved for last. Capable five-year-old 3. Kutayha has ample ability over this trip second-up, but is often hard to catch. Hit the line late in deeper grade resuming on Boxing Day, and normally improves into his next run, although back up sharply to 60kg.

Dangers: Keeping safe country five-year-old 7. Rich And Shameless who is hard fit and was close-up here in a similar race three weeks back. Progressive five-year-old 1. Awesome Lad (accepted Rosehill) can peak fourth-up out to this trip, but the inside gate late on the program is unlikely to do him any favours under a big weight. Like a few others, 4. Atlantic King is over the odds well into his prep; while both 2. O'Mudgee (accepted Rosehill) and 6. Bet Red can fill a minor place in trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Kutayha each way. Odds and Evens: Odds