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Neil Evans' Tips For Muswellbrook (Monday)

3 minute read

Track likely Soft 5 and rail True.

Racecourse : Muswellbrook.
Racecourse : Muswellbrook. Picture: @thebrookracing

Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Improving provincial filly 8. Verzenay came home hard to miss narrowly on debut, and can go one better here on the bigger track.

Dangers: Tamworth-based Your Song filly 9. Le Melody won the second of two recent trials on this track, and rates well above average. Two debutants, I Am Invincible filly 10. Sahana who draws between the top two; and Snitzel filly 11. Saivata who wears blinkers; can fight out the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Verzenay to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):

Can't go past [provincial five-year-old 2. The Chosen One who was close-up at this track second-up off a long break, and hits fitness here over a bit more ground in a race with less depth.

Dangers: Improving 4. Mr Severino is a serious threat third-up from a better draw, with a senior and far stronger rider taking over. Keep safe 5. Fusaichi Family who draws to get a soft run off the speed with far more experienced jockey back on; while 1. Media Man third-up heads the rest.

How to play it: The Chosen One to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1280m):

Tricky affair with a few first starters on show. One of them, Randwick-based Astern three-year-old 3. Pole Position is the one to beat behind two progressive trials up to 1000m.

Dangers: Progressive provincial mare 4. Yes You Think is a threat at his second start. Did some work from the gate on debut at Taree before hitting the line impressively after balancing up late; and even better off here on the bigger track and longer straight. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Bil Colyns who was good late resuming; while 8. Nayziar goes in trifecta bets third-up.

How to play it: Pole Position to win and quinella 3 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 SUMMER SIZZLER (1000m):

Like the big value here about underrated 10-year-old 1. Sharpe Hussler third-up, and a month between runs. Flashed home in the Mudgee Sprint before again doing his best work late in a metro BM 72, and behind a hot speed here on a bigger course, nothing will be finishing harder.

Dangers: Smart mare 3. Miss Powerbelle resumes for a new local stable. Hasn't started since driving home as a hot favorite in early October to make it four spaced wins on the bounce stretching back 19 months. No public trials, but always comes to hand fresh, and has built a 42 percent winning strike rate from 13 starts. Talented five-year-old 2. Eiger is always a big market watch when resuming. Comes to hand quickly, although inside draw might not be to his advantage, and better served if the track is well in soft range. Tough six-year-old 4. Lord Tony fought on okay after leading in the Inverell Shorts; while 5. Gidgee Guy can run a race first-up off a nice trial; and local five-year-old 7. Bengalla Bay is somewhat of a distance specialist, but likely to need it wetter.

How to play it: Sharpe Hussler each way and box exacta 1,2,3. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Still over the sprint trip, and this stacks up nicely for progressive filly 6. Phule second-up. Missed by a whisker getting home on a Heavy 10 at Coffs despite getting lost down the straight, and drawn to get an ideal trail just off the speed.

Dangers: Consistent four-year-old 5. Foxstorm finished hard to miss narrowly against similar opposition first-up for 10 weeks, and also better suited on the bigger track. Watch the betting on 4. Sharpay Ruler who hasn't started since leading all the way on debut at Taree 17 months ago, but trialled okay a month back; while 8. Milingimbi progresses off a nice debut win here; and 3. Photogenic resumes off a long break behind two progressive trials.

How to play it: Phule to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m):

Very tough race, with plenty of chances. Progressive three-year-old 8. Hettinger has shown plenty over the final furlong in two runs since switching from Victoria. Blinkers are back on over a little more ground, and he's primed to peak.

Dangers: Improving three-year-old 7. Ciao Bicky got mobile late second-up behind a smart winner at Taree. Expecting a big second-up run from provincial staying four-year-old 2. Double Award who did his best work late in that same race as the former. Keep safe metro filly 13. Redoute's Soul on debut behind two quiet trials; while improving metro three-year-old 6. Artie's Dreamtime; and hard fit 10. Thunder Knob both go in wider exotics.

How to play it: Hettinger to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP - CLASS 2 & ABOVE (1280m):

The most open race is saved for last. Provincial mare 11. Tequila Cabos can strike third-up five weeks between runs at good odds. Has stuck to his task well getting home in deeper races, and carries only 1.5kg above the minimum after the claim.

Dangers: Provincial three-year-old 9. Jet Pack has been held back to avoid wet tracks since failing on the Beaumont course five weeks ago. Has trialled okay and blinkers come off. Capable mare 6. Chomeur has trialled nicely since finishing off late in a CL2 when put into an ordinary position back in the field. Honest six-year-old 4. Pass The Card draws to get a soft run just behind the speed, although up sharply in weight; while don't dismiss 1. The Snooperstar at big odds, drawn off the track fourth-up; and 8. Dynastic who is hard fit and a worthy exotic inclusion.

How to play it: Tequila Cabos each way and box exacta 6,9,11. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 8. VERZENAY
R2 2. THE CHOSEN ONE

BEST VALUE:
R6 8. HETTINGER


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