3 minute read

Track likely Soft 5 and Rail True.

We start Cup day over the middle distance on a track that will probably slip back into soft range, with rain expected. Keen on improving Tamworth four-year-old 4. Mr Severino who peaks fourth-up getting out to this distance. Has placed in his last two after sitting behind the speed, but from a wider draw here can be ridden quieter and be saved for a big finish from the 400m.

Dangers: Tough six-year-old 1. Rumberella is over the odds fifth-up. With 3kg apprentice sticking, the handicapper hasn't caught him yet, and he's been close-up in his last two against slightly deeper opposition. Draws to get a nice trail right behind the speed. Keep safe capable mare 2. Our Girl Eve who has been finding the line well, and comes back in class; while both 3. Hichaux who drew low with a claim; and last-start BM 58 winner 6. Everluck; go in wider exotics.

How to play it: Mr Severino to win and box exacta 1,2,4. Odds and Evens: Split

This shapes as the breakthrough race for lightly-raced four-year-old 2. Cut 'Em Up fifth-up with blinkers added. Held his ground okay getting home in better races twice in his last three outings, and only has to reproduce that from a soft trailing gate to open his account.

Dangers: Progressive filly 12. Lan Kwai Fong was very good from the back last start after being heavily supported from a double figure price. Gets out to an ideal trip here third-up, and blinkers go on. Big watch on consistent four-year-old 4. Metal Bar who has beaten all but the winner in three of his last four and bursting to break through. The more rain the better. One over the odds is 9. Roussos who did it tough from the wide draw last start, but likes it soft and previous form was sound enough to be in the finish here.

How to play it: Cut 'Em Up to win. Odds and Evens: Evens

Tough four-year-old 1. Amulet Street can go back-to-back after an overdue and deserved maiden win at Tamworth where he tracked the speed and powered home on a Soft 7. That was only second-up off a long break, so he'll be race fitter here, and any amount of rain only helps.

Dangers: Progressive 4. Foxstorm found the line from the back second-up in a handy CL1 field, and he looks well placed over 200m further. Gap to the rest headed by 9. Demeurer who flashed home in a BM 58 first-up, but drawn wide; while 6. Witness Me Run is on the next line.

How to play it: Amulet Street to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Wide and very tough affair. Love the value of Tamworth mare 7. Crimson Rose down a little in weight and dropping back to a more suitable trip. Bolted in a weak affair at home two starts back before weakening in a stronger field than this when pushed out to 1400m.

Dangers: Capable four-year-old 2. Circularity looks ready to roll first-up behind two trials, and draws the inside. Veteran 1. Mr Grumpy comes back to the grade in which he saluted two runs back after dropping out when leading in better class at Port. Despite the wide draw, he can give a big sight on speed as long as there's not too much rain. Improving 6. Purple Cup is clear best of the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Crimson Rose each way. Odds and Evens: Split

Another testing maiden over the sprint trip. Another one from Tamworth can strike here at his fourth start. Progressive four-year-old 1. Keep Me Loyal had to be used early from the wide gate last start before weakening, but previous two closing efforts were full of merit for a race like this, and he's ready to win.

Dangers: Despite drawing wide, this is a real chance to break through for four-year-old mare 2. Pressita fourth-up. Finished off okay in a better race than this at Port, and just needs to slot in for cover. Watch the market movement on provincial four-year-old 3. Galbalan who faded early in the straight third-up at Gosford, but looks well treated carrying half kilo less in country grade. Included in trifectas and first fours 6. Anchor's Point third-up; and 13. Miss Chapeau who draws a nice trailing gate at her third start.

How to play it: Keep Me Loyal to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Progressive Scone four-year-old 1. The Wayfarer rates a near good thing fourth-up over his pet distance. Has been close-up in consecutive runs at home against better opposition, and from the draw here, can park just off the speed and finish best.

Dangers: Lightly raced Tamworth five-year-old 3. Dixie Can is a noted fresh performer, having won two from three, so don't be concerned about not publicly trialling; while three-year-old 2. Barney Rabble was dominant leading all the way at the provincials fourth-up in his first prep, and drew to take control again, but meeting some slicker ones here. Big gap to the rest headed by resuming mare 5. Ishim who is a stablemate to Dixie Can.

How to play it: The Wayfarer to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Feature race of the day naturally brings plenty of chances. Love the big value on tough six-year-old 2. Acoustix who shapes nicely over an ideal trip fourth-up. Led all the way to win a thinner Cup race before Xmas, then was brave from the front in BM 64 provincial grade. Over the odds!

Dangers: Progressive five-year-old 5. Unrestricted quickened impressively from the bend to claim a BM 66 a month back, and despite more depth in this, ss well treated at the weights dropping sharply to 56kg. Underrated six-year-old 3. Maslow can run a big race reaching this distance third-up. Was only run down late in a BM 84 at Tamworth, and from a good draw carries only 55kg after the claim. Progressive mare 6. Celestial Doll is hard fit for the trip, and steps up from two impressive wins in weaker company; while 10. Ah Well is a knock-out chance at bigger odds after flashing home late in a handy BM 66. Keep watch on 13. Trogir if he gains a start. Drawn right off the track, but he hasn't finished further back than second in five runs since spring, including a dominant lower grade Cup win, and he loves the distance.

How to play it: Acoustix each way and box trifecta 2,3,5,6. Odds and Evens: Split

We wrap up the card with the feature dash, and confident tough Inverell eight-year-old 5. All Stand can salute again after a dominant fresh wiin in weaker company. Despite meeting better opposition, he carries 6.5kg less after the claim.

Dangers: Improving five-year-old 6. Primal Scream is the immediate threat fifth-up from a soft draw. Also up in weight, tough six-year-old 2. Rexx shoots for three straight wins; while 1. Akasaki can run home into a place from the inside barrier.

How to play it: All Stand to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 2. CUT 'EM UP
R6 1. THE WAYFARER

BEST VALUE:
R4 7. CRIMSON ROSE