3 minute read
Track likely Soft 6 and rail out 6m
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):
Expecting Capitalist three-year-old 1. Russian Standard to return a much stronger and more mature galloper for his fifth start. Hasn't raced since missing narrowly as a hot favourite here mid October, but tuned up with a dominant trial win, clocking a slick 33.45 secs for his final 600m in Soft 7 ground.
Dangers: Home track four-year-old 5. Mentalism has been given four weeks between runs since a fair first-up effort here in heavy ground, and draws to get a softer run. Big market watch on resuming Redoute's Choice filly 8. Bahama who has also trialled in smart fashion.
How to play it: Russian Standard to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 2 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):
Same journey for the more experienced sprinters, and while Canberra eight-year-old 7. Rafha's Choice can mix his form, he's hard fit and ready to strike, dropping sharply in weight. Led for a long way in a stronger Federal at home a month ago before failing to run on under a big weight in a BM 65. Well treated under 56kg in this grade.
Dangers: Promising filly 2. Sebrenco resumes from a seven month spell without publicly trialling. Hasn't finished further back than second in four starts, and was scratched from a very winnable race at Tamworth on Monday to be saved for this. Home track four-year-old 3. Don Luigi is not a renowned fresh performer and hasn't raced for 10 weeks, but stretched out nicely to win a recent open class trial here. Included in exotics metro mare 6. Tudor Music and local mare 9. Comeback Star first-up after trailing home Don Luigi in that trial.
How to play it: Rafha's Choice to win and first four 2,7/2,3,6,7,9/2,3,6,7,9/2,3,6,7,9. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m):
Tricky and open contest for mainly three-year-olds at set weights. Progressive filly 8. Dalchini was very good late first-up off a 23 week break at Warwick Farm, finishing so hard she ran out of room in the last 50m. Suited even better getting to the bigger track, and she can set up a big prep by winning this.
Dangers: Expecting Godolphin filly 12. Stalking to return in strong fashion, first run since finishing less than four lengths from the winner in the Group 2 Wakeful at Flemington late October. Was close-up in a provincial trial, and showed plenty when fresh last time before being pushed out over longer trips. Big watch on resuming filly 11. Poetic Drama who returns off a five month break and forward trial for her first run in NSW after two fair efforts at Bendigo last spring. Improving 1. Baranof with blinkers back on third-up; 2. Champions League fresh behind two trials; and Real Impact debutant 4. Global Encounters are all knock-out hopes at bigger odds, and can be put through all exotics.
How to play it: Dalchini to win. Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):
Resuming 1. Arthur Francis has serious ability, and looks well fitted via two improving 1050m trials. Took on the best two-year-olds a year ago before being placed twice in spring, and with blinkers on for the first time he can return with a bang.
Dangers: Promising provincial filly 5. Short Shorts resumes off a 10-week break and trial win for just her third start. Won well on debut at Newcastle after stalking the speed, and winkers have been removed. Progressive 2. With Your Blessing ran down a smart one first-up on the Kensington track, and that horse has since won well. Gap to the rest headed by 11. Shocking Force who has closed off well in two provincial runs this prep, and draws a low gate.
How to play it: Arthur Francis to win and quinella 1 and 5. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):
Exciting filly 13. Tiempe Passate (also accepted for Gosford on Wed) was a raging certainty beaten at Hawkesbury second start when held up badly for a long way down the straight before charging late to go under less than a length. The run was all the more meritorious when it was reported she'd suffered bruising to her near-fore heel. Same weight and trip here, and she can open her account.
Dangers: Talented four-year-old 1. Stormy Legend is bursting to break through fourth-up after attacking the line hard in his last two, and a senior rider gets back on. Progressive filly 12. Sanstoc did her best work late on debut when solid in the market, and will appreciate a little more ground; while improving filly 11. Queenmaker is the best of the rest off a solid country debut.
How to play it: Tiempe Passate to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):
All aboard super honest metro mare 6. Kouklara who can win again after rushing home to claim her maiden at Newcastle 17 days ago. Drops 2kg for this next level, and pushes out another 100m in distance. The one to beat.
Dangers: Dominant last start country maiden winner 9. Summerbeel is similarly placed, stepping up a level over 100m further carrying half kilo less. Metro five-year-old 4. Born A Warrior is over the odds deep into his prep after charging home in a handy BM 64 at Hawkesbury; while both 3. Just Tozza who has hit the line late in his last couple; and at big odds US-bred import 5. Jack Duggan second-up; can both run into a place.
How to play it: Kouklara to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1400m):
Handy race for this grade to close. Underrated four-year-old 4. Texcel can hit back hard here second-up, with blinkers added. Was easy in betting when failing to finish off in stronger metrio grade, but it was hard to make up ground in the straight that night, and he's better suited here over more ground on a bigger track.
Dangers: Progressive Canberra mare 10. In De Sun Iwilcome has beaten all bar the winner in two runs back, both from midfield and leading, and drops a hefty 6kg in weight for this tougher test. Watch the betting on Godolphin three-year-old 3. Character who resumes from the inside draw behind two sound trials. Big watch too on five-year-old stablemate of In De Sun Iwilcome, 1. Dream Runner who returns off a 15 week break, and has a smart fresh record.
How to play it: Texcel each way and box trifecta 1,3,4,10. Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R1 1. RUSSIAN STANDARD
R5 13. TIEMPE PASSATE
BEST VALUE:
R4 1. ARTHUR FRANCIS
