3 minute read

The Group 3 Ladbrokes Launceston Cup is race 8 on Wednesday with a field of 10 accepting for the race. Tasracing’s thoroughbred analyst Matt Reid gives his thoughts on every runner and assessed market to 100%.

1. Ho Ho Khan (5) – Assessed price $3.50

The market had little clue what was about to occur in Hobart, the 7YO was $3.50 out to $5.50 before demolishing the cup field to win by four lengths eased down. He's been penalised 2kg so will carry 61kg on Wednesday and certainly no horse in the last 20 years has carried that figure to victory. He simply has to be the shortest priced runner of those coming via the Hobart Cup, but the Launceston track is a different beast, particularly for horses looking to round the field from the back as the top weight did 10 days ago.

Very well supported to start the $2.60 favourite in Hobart, the 6YO was given the run of the race by Jarrod Fry but simply found one far too good on the day. He settled in front of his main dangers there and will likely find a nice spot again from an ideal draw. Gets a positive weight swing off the Hobart winner as they all do but has now placed five times since his last win in November 2020.

First home of the locals in Hobart, the 8YO found himself further back in the field than accustomed and connections have opted for a jockey change, replacing Mehmet Ulucinar with apprentice Erica Byrne Burke who rode the horse to win the Summer Cup. Well known as a horse that needs to be "ridden ugly", gate 10 is a positive and he was the best sectional closer in Hobart outside the race winner.

The 8YO didn't go a yard in Hobart, tailing the field throughout and despite no mention of the performance being made in the stewards' report, connections obviously found enough excuses to warrant backing up. He had decent lead-up form heading into the Hobart Cup but has now won just one race from 13 starts since his 2019 Launceston Cup victory and must be taken completely on trust that he can figure on Wednesday after what we saw last time out.

The 2021 Launceston Cup winner hasn't tasted victory since that race and it's perhaps surprising for a mare with her quality that she's only a four-time overall winner from 34 starts. Gate 1 always looked a negative in Hobart and it played out that way, buried back in the field and forced to make inside runs at a time where most riders were looking to get well off the fence. Her fourth had plenty of merit, a wider draw suits, and she reunites with Siggy Carr who had success with the horse in this race last year.

The 9YO started $51 in Hobart and battled away after a midfield run to beat a few horse's home. I think that looks the likeliest scenario again, particularly from a draw where he'll likely settle well back and is entitled to be an outsider in the field.

The 5YO showed he was up to a race like the Group 3 Launceston Cup when he was beaten in a three-way photo last year. He raced wide for much of the race in Hobart where it's worth noting he was ridden 1kg over by Blaike Mcdougall who is replaced by Bulent Muhcu. Looks set to peak and has generally been a better Launceston horse than he has in Hobart.

One of two horses in the race that didn't contest the Hobart Cup last start. The emerging 5YO guaranteed his place in the race with a win in the Sydeston Cup and in the process may have finally convinced trainer Adam Trinder that he is genuinely up to open company. An out and out Launceston staying specialist, all seven of his wins have come at the track and over 2100m or further. He'll bowl along on speed, and has shown he can run time, his win three starts ago broke the track record.

The last start Colac Cup winner convinced connections of a trip across Bass Strait with that performance. He enjoyed the run of the race there when $2.40 favourite which came off the back of a decent Moonee Valley second in BM70 company. As a 79-rater this is a significant rise in class, and he's treated poorly at the weights carrying the minimum along with the likes of last year's cup winner. He maps to do no work from gate 2 and get his chance to show he is up to the level.

Racing well out of his grade this campaign the consistent 6YO continues to race in great form, evidenced by him beating half the field home in Hobart. He is a two time winner and 18 time placegetter who would've started towards the head of the market if connections opted to send him round in the BM66 staying race earlier in the day.

Matt Reid's assessed Ladbrokes Launceston Cup market: