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Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Hawkesbury meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track with rain forecast. Monitor for bias/pattern.

4. Gulf Of Saros is coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation and his rating figures line up well relative to his opposition. The three-year-old colt is down in grade and although 27 days between runs, he has a significant fitness advantage over multiple rivals. He maps to lead, giving him first use of the rain-affected track and the step back in distance suits with Tommy Berry taking the ride.

Dangers: 7. So Incisive led and had all favours winning nine days ago at this track/distance but was strong through the line. She is the only last-start winner in the field and the backup suits on a testing track. The David Payne trained 2. Caboteur and 3. Chappelli both broke through for their maiden wins last preparation and then were immediately spelled. Caboteur had the starting price advantage last time they clashed, and they are key market watches late in betting due to neither officially trialling.

How to play it: Gulf Of Saros WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Although well beaten on debut at Newcastle 20 days ago 4. Givara's run was full of merit, and he looks a progressive type. The three-year-old gelding trialled well prior to his first-up run and then was rock solid in the market $5.50-$5.00 when running second to the potential group class galloper Loch Eagle on a heavy eight. He chased a genuine tempo and tried hard in the straight in a fast time race with decisive margins to confirm the form. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The Hawkes trained gelding has a fitness/tactical map advantage on his main rivals, and William Pike can either lead or box seat. In addition, a repeat of his last start figure lines up well and will put him right in the finish.

Dangers: 2. Brillar resumes, and he had the pace/bias against him first-up last preparation when running on strongly at Gosford. The three-year-old gelding has been keen in his trials on the synthetic but has been closing off well under light riding. 1. Verbek is ultra-consistent and is first-up without an official trial. He has strong figures over a longer distance and is a key market watch late. 7. Sir Savaluca also resumes and can sprint well fresh off one soft trial with the blinkers off.

How to play it: Givara WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Plenty of speed engaged. D-Day 8. Why Doubt who gets a favourable race setup and is rock-hard fit on a 10-day backup with the blinkers going on for the first time. The three-year-old filly hit the line well last start at Canberra in a fast time race, and Punter's Intelligence recorded she ran the second-fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 10.76. She can absorb the anticipated high pressure and do her best work late whilst others are tiring. Each-Way.

Dangers: 5. Tempestas comes out of the same race as Why Doubt last start at Canberra and had a similar starting price. The three-year-old filly showed early speed, led at a fast pace and stuck on bravely to run second after only being gobbled up in the final 50m. She has improved each run this preparation and expect her to look the winner at some stage. First-uppers 1. Ottilie and 2. Din were solid in their first preparation and have trialled well enough for this event.

How to play it: Why Doubt E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

On debut, 5. Nautical Miss ran above market expectations when starting $61 in a strong Kembla maiden 30 days ago. The three-year-old filly settled worse than midfield, and although racing keenly throughout, she ran on well running the race's second-fastest closing sectionals. She brings the clear superior last start figure relative to her rivals and maps well with her breeding suggesting the wet ground will be no issue.

Dangers: Expect improvement from 6. The Cave after chasing throughout over 1000m last start at Gosford. She trialled well prior and was rock-solid in the market and the combination of a bigger track and further distance suit. Late market watch 12. Poseidon Jewel who hasn't had an official trial and raced well in strong time races last preparation. 4. Moonspotter is a first starter who was not extended running second in a trial at Muswellbrook 13 days ago.

How to play it: Nautical Miss WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) & The Cave WIN ($15.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

14. Stalking returned well first-up at Kembla, her run was full of merit and was only narrowly beaten to miss in the final stride. The three-year-old filly had too much to do after getting too far back in transit and then made her run through the inferior ground whilst still running the fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 11.30. She has key factors in her favour, with the step-up in distance being ideal, rain-affected ground suiting and all her peak rating figures have come with the blinkers off. Expect her to be running on strongly under the guidance of Hugh Bowman with the anticipated even/fast tempo.

Dangers: Three-year-old fillies 8. Legal Choice and 5. Afewchoicewords trained by Chris Waller look primed and ready to peak third-up. Legal Choice was not suited and checked/blocked at a critical stage last start at Newcastle. Afewchoicewords will need some luck from the draw but improved second-up with the blinkers on at Kembla last start. 2. Lukey Luke is another with a tricky draw but raced wide throughout last start at Kembla and tried hard to the line. He is screaming for the 1500m and Hawkesbury suits.

How to play it: Stalking WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

3. Steplee has had excuses and factors against all preparation. The relatively lightly raced four-year-old gelding was not run to suit when getting too far back in a big field and ran on well to run an honest sixth. Further, he had a checkered passage over the final stages and was still able to run one of the fastest last 200m splits of the entire meeting in 12.12. He will appreciate the step up to 1600m from a kind draw and has figures that line up well relative to his opposition.

Dangers: 1. Fine Ruby represents value. Resumes after one soft trial on the synthetic. He was impressive in his fresh runs last preparation, where he ran strong closing sectionals and ran a career peak figure at this track/distance second-up. The G Ryan & S Alexiou partnership are renowned for having their runners wound up to run well first-up and expect him to be hitting the line hard. 7. Bella Violet is rock-hard fit and has been racing ok at the metropolitan level. She is coming out of a fast time race and maps to get all favours with Hugh Bowman sticking. 5. Vandangle has been a model of consistency on the country circuit and has a positive map.

How to play it: Steplee WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Fine Ruby Win ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Impressive last start winner 10. Riviera Blue represents value, she ran sustained solid sectionals throughout at Newcastle 19 days ago. That race rating the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. In addition, there has been a subsequent winner to confirm the form. The three-year-old gelding wore the blinkers for the first time, and he excelled in the heavy ground running a clear career peak figure. He will need luck from the draw; the step-up in distance suits and a repeat of his last performance will put him in the finish. Good Each-Way.

Dangers: 12. What A Peach is racing well this preparation and was a winner in this grade on wet ground last start at Newcastle. 13. Shanjomi comes out of the same race and started significantly shorter in the market and receives a 3kg swing. 5. The Poacher was wide and given no peace but won first-up dominantly at Goulburn. 2. Brooks Battle was wide last start at Canterbury off a 29-day break and is ready to peak third-up from a kind draw.

How to play it: Riviera Blue E/W ($15.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

D-Day 7. Laurelin who was disappointing first-up at Kensington after being heavily backed throughout the day and was $1.75-$1.60 late in betting. The three-year-old filly was given every chance and fought away okay in the final stages. She has always promised ability and will benefit from a rain-affected track that could incur rapid improvement. The wide-draw is of little concern coming out of the 1000m chute with only one turn, and Hugh Bowman will have options to ride to any evident pattern.

Dangers: 4. Esteemed Lady is racing well and brings a fitness edge relative to her main rivals. 2. He's Super Lucky and 3. Major Murphy are knockout chances who will be running on strongly with their career peak performances coming on wet ground. 5. Way To The Stars has struggled at the metropolitan level and is suited back to the provincial circuit. He has trialled well in between runs and will roll forward.

How to play it: Laurelin WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Best Bet: Race 2 # 4 – Givara.

Next Best: Race 5 # 14 – Stalking.

Best Value: Race 7 # 10 – Riviera Blue E/W.