3 minute read

1. Williamsburg and Moko paired off to fight out the finish of the G3 Baillieu two weeks ago on a bottomless Heavy 10 at Rosehill. One race later the meeting was abandoned. The respective last 400m splits between the pair were nearly identical, hence the close finish but if anything, Williamsburg was pulling away on the line. He has always given the impression he'd run a strong mile and last start further cemented that. The son of Snitzel, out of Fenway, a Group One winner over 2000m, has been penalised for his win having to carry 59kg and he'll see all of his rivals turning for home, but barries could mean very little on an extremely testing track. Kerrin McEvoy will give him plenty of room to click through his gears. He is the horse to beat in what looks a race thin on winning hopes.

Dangers: The case for 2. Moko to turn the tables is that she is likely to settle a couple of lengths closer than Williamsburg in the run and she gets a little 1kg swing at the weights. Not as confident that she'll see out a mile, however. 6. Matcha Latte was well beaten by that duo in the Baillieu but he was 1100m to 1400m at just his second start, and was well supported in betting too. Just didn't look completely comfortable on the very heavy track. 5. Kote also comes through the Baillieu, knocking up to finish sixth, but there aren't too many other ways to turn.

How To Play It: Williamsburg WIN

9. Loch Eagle strolled home first up at Newcastle to get his maiden out of the way before beating Straight Arron at Warwick Farm second up out to 1400m. That horse, of course, has since franked that form line in a big way by impressing in last Saturday's Carbine Club Stakes posting the fastest closing splits of the meeting. Loch Eagle has obviously returned a much better horse in his second campaign but his good form also coincides with two heavy track runs. The Lonhro colt clearly relishes wet ground. Kerrin McEvoy jumps on now third up and should be able to settle Loch Eagle down in the first dozen. He jumps from a midweek BM72 into a Listed race and starts the same price but there's every chance he improves again. As the market suggests, he's clearly the one to beat.

Dangers: Like the way 5. Shihonka knuckled down to chase home Mazu last start in the Darby Munro. She used plenty of petrol to get into the race from the 600-400 given she settled last yet was still strong through the line compared to the likes of 4. Bend The Knee. Bend The Knee was seven weeks between runs and raced like he'll appreciate getting back out to 1400m. 1. Zethus wasn't beaten far by Generation first up at Caulfield despite having spent a year on the sidelines. He was understandably a touch flat second up off that but he was only beaten 3.4L by Pinstriped. Has been freshened since. 7. Cotehele did more than enough first up at the midweeks.

How To Play It: Loch Eagle

2. Never Talk blitzed her rivals in the Newcastle qualifier three weeks ago, tackling 1400m for the first time in her career. That was the query leading in, but she answered it emphatically. The race turned into a sprint home and she produced a devastating turn of foot that was backed up on the clock. She put 3.4 lengths on Pipalli, a mare that subsequently came out and won the Wildcard. We know that Never Talk absolutely loves the mud too. Her record on heavy ground now reads 3:2-0-1. Prior to winning her heat, she chased home Belluci Babe when third in the G3 Wenona Girl while first up she clocked the fastest closing splits of the meeting when third behind Rule Of Law and Emanate. Barrier 2 will require some navigation from Damien Oliver but she handles the going so well as long as she sees daylight with enough time, it perhaps doesn't even matter if the inside is inferior.

Dangers: 1. Rustic Steel has a more recent run under his belt having run third at Newcastle just 12 days ago. That was the hit out he needed to be cherry ripe for this having won his qualifier so impressively four weeks earlier. The wet is no issue and the wide draw allows Hugh Bowman, who has ridden him all three starts this campaign, to blend into the race whenever he likes. 4. Kiss Sum had run two cheeky races in two three-year-old races behind Paulele and Anamoe before qualifying last start. He ran second to Geo but the winner had all of the momentum and found the better ground. He won the Four Pillars fourth up last preparation. 3. Kinloch produced a big finish first up as a gelding to run down 9. Great News. That was at Gosford. He'll be better again on a bigger track but maps to be out the back. 12. Grand Rumore next best.

How To Play It: Never Talk WIN

3. Paris Dior was beaten by the barrier in the Inglis Millenium. The filly had to make a wide, sustained run when second behind Xtravagant Star, edging past Sejardan late. Her closing splits were comfortably the quickest in the race. The obvious knock is tackling 1200m for the first time on the back of a 9 week freshen but she has trialled twice over 1000m since then, and this has been a long term target for gun two-year-old trainers Peter and Paul Snowden after the stable elected to bypass the Golden Slipper. The daughter of Pierro will settle down in the first couple and James McDonald does the steering. Love the way she broke her maiden riding the speed at Canterbury and her two trial wins suggest that she is humming.

Dangers: 4. Ojai poked home up the fence to run fifth in the Golden Slipper, with only the winner Fireburn clocking faster closing splits. She has the advantage of more recent racing on her side. 7. Dashing Legend is still a maiden but she went straight past Ojai in the Reisling on a Heavy 10 at Randwick. Like 8. Magic Carpet's form reference through She's Extreme in the Magic Night and she has trialled sweetly since. 14. Willinga Beast was just as impressive on the clock as she was to the eye when winning her maiden at Canterbury. 13. North Star Lass also comes through a midweek maiden but she too won well and shouldn't be dismissed. 9. Pantonario has form around all the right two-year-old's while 10. Kin's dam Kinshachi was a swimmer.

How To Play It: Paris Dior WIN

2. Paulele finished third last Saturday behind two of the best sprinters in the world in Nature Strip and Eduardo in the weight-for-age TJ Smith Stakes on a heavy track at Randwick. It's hard to ignore that form coming back to his own age on the quick back up. The Godolphin colt ran in the Group One Galaxy prior to that and despite finishing 10th, there was merit to the run. He clocked the fastest 600-200m section across the entire meeting before his run came to an end. The barrier saw him get too far back. There won't be that concern in this. He's entitled to be favourite given the set up.

Dangers: The market looks to have this race well cornered with 1. In The Congo and 6. Mazu the obvious threats. In The Congo was only beaten half a length in the G1 Galaxy first up with 56kg. That was his first run on a heavy track. Mazu is chasing five straight. He hasn't met sprinters of the quality of Paulele or In The Congo in that winning streak but he has being doing it stylishly and on heavy tracks.

How To Play It: Paulele WIN

In the past 10 years, four Australian Oaks have been run on tracks rated a Soft 7 or worse. Three of them were won by horses backing up from the Adrian Knox seven days earlier. And the exceptional was Bonneval coming of an NZ Oaks win. Advantage 4. Honeycreeper. She settled out the back in a slowly run Adrian Knox last week yet still put three lengths on her rivals. The margin was flattering to those behind her if anything. Her last 200m split of 12.03s was the fifth quickest across the entire meeting. The daughter of Teofilo was only just getting warmed up! She scooted through the heavy conditions, with the way she travelled into the race just as impressive as how she let down when Hugh Bowman, who has already won this race five times, asked her for a final effort.

Dangers: Will 1. Hinged see out a strong 2400m? There is no evidence to suggest she won't and her dam Tints won out to 2200m. She was suited by the shape of the Vinery last start having camped second but only Fangirl and 2. Gypsy Goddess clocked a faster last 200m split, and Hinged has tactical speed. Gypsy Goddess looks well set up out to 2400m now, as does 9. Pink Ivory. Neither were suited by a Vinery dropping back to 1850m. Does that play a factor at the end of a slogging 2400m though? It wasn't exactly a testing Vinery either. If Honeycreeper is threatening to start favourite, don't overlook 10. Charity Spirit to fill a minor here too. There was a sizeable gap back to third. 16. Mauricently's Adrian Knox run also suggested she'd relish 2400m. Kiwi 5. Le Villi isn't without a knockout hope either.

How To Play It: Honeycreeper WIN

There is a perception that 9. Luncies isn't all the comfortable on wet tracks. Well, his runs this time back suggest otherwise. Each of his four runs have had merit and he looks cherry ripe for the two miles. Last Saturday in the Chairman's, a race that has provided 11 of the past 20 Sydney Cup winners, he settled worse than midfield in a race that was completely dominated by the two up front. The winner Nerve Not Verved clocked an 11.54s 400-200m split at the end of 2600m. There is simply no catching a stayer that does that. Luncies wasn't to be outdone on the clock, however. The grey's 12.19s last 200m was the eighth quickest across the entire meeting. Not too shabby for the final furlong given the journey on a heavy deck! That'll top him off perfectly.

Dangers: 13. Chalk Stream doesn't have the same amount of 'miles in the legs' as Luncies but he profiles like he'll eat up 3200m. His third in the Queens Cup (Manion) three weeks ago was a brilliant Sydney Cup trial. The import covered a stack of ground yet was coming again through the line. The extra 800m should see him turn the tables on stablemates 8. No Compromise and 11. Surefire. 4. Stockman is a swimmer with a 7:4-2-0 record on heavy tracks and he drops to 51kg having run second, albeit a distant second, to Duais at weight-for age last start. 5. Crystal Pegasus is flying, having been beautifully placed by Chris Waller recently. 3. Knights Order will give another sight, as he did in the Chairman's while 14. Alakahan is a smoky at odds from that same lead up.

How To Play It: Luncies WIN

7. Duais sets up beautifully for a testing 2000m. The flying four-year-old drops back from 2400m in the Tancred Stakes, where she made a mess of her rivals, which was just 12 days ago. Her main threats here, and there are plenty, are all three weeks between runs over 2000m and the mile. The Ed Cummings-trained mare proved that she was comfortable in heavy conditions in the Chipping Norton Stakes three starts back, when a luckless sixth. Verry Elleegant beat Duais home both first and second up this campaign but she didn't find clear running on either occasion. Duais went on to dash past her rivals in the Australia Cup before making it back-to-back Group Ones in the Tancred. Despite drawing widest, love the map for her as Josh Parr will be able to track Verry Elleegant into the race from the 800m.

Dangers: 8. Montefilia produced a devastating turn of foot to beat Verry Elleegant fair and square in the Ranvet last start. All she has to do is hold that form now third up and she has to be in the finish again. The wet track holds no fears for her. 9. Anamoe was visually brilliant in winning the Rosehill Guineas. There is the query over the time compared to the Ranvet on the same day but he has already proven himself against older horses in the Cox Plate, albeit with the spring three-year-old allowance of 49.5kg. The gun Godolphin colt will be cherry ripe now fifth up. 6. Verry Elleegant has run second to Addeybb in this race the last two years. He's not here to chase the threepeat but there is a lot more depth to this year's race. 2. Zaaki might very well be the best horse in the race and he has tactical speed but his set up is the knock coming off a very cosy good track mile win. He has never raced on a heavy track either.

How To Play It: Duais WIN

It's no secret now that the deeper 3. Icebath gets into her preparation, the better she gets. She loomed like the winner in last Saturday's Doncaster Mile but just ran out of steam the last 100m. Dare I suggest she was half a run short despite being fourth up! The last two wins in her career have been fifth up. The five-year-old also thrives on quick back ups. She has raced on a seven day turnaround on three occasions and has been beaten in photo finishes in all three – second in a Golden Eagle (behind Colette), second in last year's Doncaster and then second in the Cantala over the string. The Brad Widdup-trained mare simply thrives on racing. Wouldn't expect Kerrin McEvoy to ride her too dissimilar to The Invitation last preparation from the wide draw.

Dangers: It has to be 1. Colette. She ran second to Think It Over first up before bouncing back from her Chipping Norton Stakes failure, where she had excuses, with a Group One placing behind Forbidden Love in the George Ryder. She has won her past two races in mares company. 2. Lighthouse has a very similar lead in to Con Te Partiro two years ago. She too is well placed back to her own sex under the weight for age conditions. 7. Promise Of Success should have finished a touch closer to Lighthouse in the Coolmore before taking out the Emancipation. The length between the first five home is a query, however. Respect that 9. Annivisto started a firm favourite in that race.

How To Play It: Icebath WIN

It's hard to punch too many holes in the set up for 4. Belluci Babe. The five-year-old is in the best form of her career coming off two Group One fourths. The first of those was in the Galaxy where she was unlucky not to finish closer before she backed that up by chasing home Nature Strip and Eduardo in the TJ Smith Stakes. It was an impossible task at weight for age but she held her own and clocked the fastest last 600m split in the race. Prior to her Group One endeavours she belted a similar field of mares to this over the same track and trip on a Heavy 9, in the Wenona Girl. She is a very fit mare now deep into her preparation and is another one on the seven day turnaround. If she doesn't settle outside of the lead, she'll be at worst one pair back. Every chance.

Dangers: 8. Emanate has two huge peak runs in the past 14 months that'd win this but she hasn't been able to maintain that high level of performance. One of those big wins was just three weeks ago at Rosehill where she put near five lengths on her rivals. The other was back in February 2021 and at her next start she jumped odds on but disappointed. Certainly wary of her talent but impossible to be confident. 5. Wandabaa didn't quite get a strong 1500m in the G1 Coolmore last start. Comes back to 1200m but has had four weeks to freshen up and she swims. 3. Minhaaj was nearly put over the fence on multiple occasions in a messy Oakleigh Plate. Forget that. She is completely unknown on a heavy track. 9. Tricky Gal and 12. Majestic Shot for the multiples.

How To Play It: Belluci Babe WIN