Neil Evans' Tips for Mudgee (Sunday)

Track likely improving Heavy 8 and rail True.

Race 1 2YO HCP (1100m):

The youngsters get us rolling over the sprint trip on a track that can improve significantly, with a sunny forecast ahead. Beaten under a length on debut as a heavily backed favourite, and by prolific wet track sire I Am Invincible, metro filly 8. Covalent can go one better. Had previously trialled well, and like her drawn out with a 2kg claim.

Dangers: Improving colt 3. Compelling Truth has been close-up in two runs to start his career; while both 6. Acappella Sun second-up; and Divine Prophet filly 10. Kamitori on debut behind two forward trials; can figure in the minor end of the prize.

How to play it: Covalent to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2000m):

Keen on form local four-year-old 2. Fact Finder who can make it three wins from his last four stepping up in trip at the right time. Given five weeks since sailing home from well back for a dominant CL1 win here, and has carried weight all his brief career.

Dangers: Tough seven-year-old 1. Careering Away gets a nice weight advantage over his main rivals after the rider's 4kg allowance; while impressive last start CL1 winner 3. Speedzone is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Fact Finder to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

This looks at the mercy of resuming provincial filly 13. Show Me Your Love who is destined to win much better races. Has been given plenty of time since flashing home to miss narrowly in a better maiden on debut, and fitted for this distance with two trials. The one to beat.

Dangers: Capable city colt 1. Golden Doubt is the natural threat from the inside draw, and dropping back in grade fifth-up off a long break. Gap to the rest headed by stablemate filly to the top selection 7. Cristalino who resumes behind two quiet trials.

How to play it: Show Me Your Love to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):

Wider maiden, with several hopes. Leaning to tough filly 13. Billiethefillie who hasn't done punters any favours in two NSW runs this prep since switching from Victoria, but is better placed coming back in distance on a softer track.

Dangers: Winkers replacing blinkers is a key gear change for provincial filly 10. Lady Audrey who has a real fitness edge here fourth-up. Watch the betting on resuming 3. Divine Okay who has been an eye-catcher at the trials for leading Warwick farm stable, but is drawn off the track. Another sharp performer at the trials, country filly 8. Miss Dungog also looks a shade over the odds on debut for a strong trainer/rider combination.

How to play it: Billiethefillie to win and box trifecta 3,8,10,13
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 5 CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

Like lightly raced four-year-old 13. Second Half can peak at his fifth start down significantly in weight. Given four weeks since attacking the line late in a deeper maiden at Tamworth and even better placed here on the bigger track.

Dangers: From a soft draw with a claim fourth-up, provincial filly 14. Vanilli will be hard to hold out. Keep safe honest mare 10. Miandelle who has hit the line well in her last two, and is at peak fitness. Include 9. Life Well Lived who charged home to claim his maiden three weeks ago; and 1. Crazy Wolf up in distance; in wider exotics.

How to play it: Second Half to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 GOOREE CUP (1400m):

Tough and wide feature race, especially with a couple of the early fancies drawn wide. That said, if tough and hard fit five-year-old 9. Great Buy can slot in okay from an awkward draw, he will take some beating. Dominated here on speed in a BM 66 four starts back, and after being outclassed in the much stronger Country C'ship Final at Randwick, was only collared late a fortnight ago in a feature CL4 carrying 61kg. Drops 6kg for this, and the more the track dries out the better he's suited.

Dangers: Metrio-based five-year-old 6. Saint Of Katowice is the class runner, but has to cart 59.5kg from a wide gate. Was a dominant BM 64 winner at Sandown two runs back. Watch the betting on local five-year-old 4. Rule The World who resumes from a nice trailing draw behind two progressive trials; while 2. Jailbreak7. Herzegovina and 11. Zouologist are all capable of running into the minor end of the money.

How to play it: Great Buy to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 3 HCP (1100m):

This stacks up nicely for progressive provincial filly 4. Phule second-up. Did her best work late in a much deeper race resuming, and the winner has since won again against metro opposition. Much better placed here settling back off the speed on the bigger track.

Dangers: Keep very safe underrated four-year-old 3. Beauchamp who has been tackling deeper races of late; while 2. Dalavin has a good strike rate from only seven starts, and comes back from tougher Highway grade, but will have to get across from a wide barrier. Lightly raced and resuming mare 7. Vascotto is clear best of the rest over her pet distance.

How to play it: Phule to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R2 2. FACT FINDER
R3 13. SHOW ME YOUR LOVE

BEST VALUE:
R5 13. SECOND HALF


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