Warwick Farm Winners - Tips For Wednesday, 11th May 2022

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Race 1 - 12:50PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Political Debate had nearly every chance on debut running second at Canterbury 21 days ago but tried hard to the line. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Further, the decisive margins throughout confirm the quality, and there have since been two subsequent winners, including Resonator, who won well last Saturday at Gosford. Expect a positive ride from James McDonald, with the step up in distance being ideal, and a repeat of his last start effort/figure will make him hard to hold out.

Dangers4. Built was not suited getting too far back in a moderate pace first-up at this track 14 days ago and ran on well. Punter's Intelligence recorded he ran the equal third-fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 12.41. The two-year-old colt will appreciate the further distance and will undoubtedly be hitting the line hard. 8. Tango Flame is coming out of the same race as Political Debate and ran the race fastest 400m-200m split in 12.42 before peaking on his run. He is ready third-up and receives a senior metropolitan rider for the first time. Debutant 3. Titanic Award has trialled well enough on a heavy eight at Rosehill and has drawn well for this assignment. 6. Dupont had excuses first-up at Orange 16 days ago when finishing fifth, and nothing went right. He is a key late market watch and can bounce back.

How to play it: Political Debate WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds) & Trifecta 1 / 4,8 / 4,8,3,6. Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 2 - 1:25PM PROVEN THOROUGHBREDS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

1. Rebel Shadow was an obvious winner first-up, and the pace was run to suit, but he ran solid time relative to the day. The three-year-old gelding ran the fourth-fastest final 600m sectional of the entire meeting in 36.74 and was dominant on the line. He has improved significantly second-up in previous preparations, and the step up in distance is ideal. In addition, most of his peak figures have come on heavy ground and expect him to be hitting the line hard.

Dangers5. Democracy Manifest was a dominant winner first-up for new trainer Chris Waller at this track 23 days ago. The three-year-old gelding produced a clear career peak figure and sprinted the entire meeting's third-fastest final 400m/200m splits in 23.52/11.92. Further, he did it in style, and there were decisive margins throughout to confirm the quality of the race. He is proven on rain-affected ground, James McDonald sticks and maps to have all favours. However, some queries with a break between runs and a setback. 3. Excelladus who returned as a gelding at this track/distance 14 days ago, was impressive and ran the fastest final 400m/200m closing sectionals of the meeting in 24.06/12.00. He has key factors in his favour and is on an upwards ratings spiral but does go up in grade and 4kg in weight. Forgive 8. Deep Romance last start where she pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. She has since trialled well in-between runs and will roll forward.

How to play it: Rebel Shadow E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 3 - 2:00PM FIRST JUSTIFY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

3. Shameless Miss had every chance running second last start at Kensington 16 days ago but tried hard all the way to the line and beat the rest easily. The four-year-old mare is rock-hard, consistent and has a strong record. In addition, she maps to have all favours again, races in the same grade and a repeat of her last start effort/figure will put her in the finish.

Dangers1. Feel The Rush comes out of the same race as Shameless Miss last start and started shorter in the market but was poor. However, she receives a 2kg swing and is a key late market watch. 5. Za Ceibas was checked/blocked last start at Canterbury 7 days ago and ran on ok. The four-year-old gelding is up in grade but drops 4kg and benefits from a recent run. 6. Atonement was 54 days between runs last start at Canterbury and battled on ok. The rise back up in distance suits and is proven on rain-affected ground.

How to play it: Shameless Miss WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 4 - 2:35PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)

1. Bethencourt was impressive last start winning by a dominant margin of four lengths at Randwick 18 days ago. The five-year-old gelding sat outside the leader at a moderate pace and sprinted away from his rivals, running the fourth-fastest final 400m split of the entire meeting in 25.57. Additionally, the overall time was solid relative to the day, and the decisive margins confirmed the quality. The Kim Waugh trained galloper revels in the testing conditions, and all his peak figures have come on heavy ground. Expect him to roll forward; the step back up in distance suits and a repeat of his last start effort/figure will make him hard to beat.

Dangers6. Sindacato who brings an X-factor, has trailed well five days ago at Rosehill in a fast time heat relative to the morning. In his Australian debut, the NZ import was honest in stronger grade, and he started a solid $ 4.80-second favourite. Further, he chased throughout and had to make his run through the inferior ground at an unsuitable distance. The six-year-old gelding has form lines around Bankers Choice, which has run well in a G1 Doncaster Mile (1600m) and is a key late market watch. 4. Mach Schnell won with ease at Kensington 16 days ago and looks set to improve again. He can step off that run and peak third-up over further distance and maps to get all favours. 5. Above And Beyond has a knockout chance profile.

How to play it: Bethencourt WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 5 - 3:10PM PINATUBO NEW @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

Tricky race with multiple runners first up. 7. Sachello resumes and has trialled well in fast time relative to the morning at Warwick Farm on the synthetic track. The three-year-old filly is lightly raced and won well fresh last preparation. She will roll forward from the wide draw with no weight and give a sight.

Dangers8. Twice As Special who represents value, has strong form-lines and is proven on rain-affected ground. The five-year-old mare hasn't won in a long time but is racing at her home track and will be running on hard. 3. Mr Magical wasn't extended in his latest trial at Canberra and has a strong first-up record. 4. Quiet Riot who has raced well this preparation, has a fitness edge and expect jockey Tim Clark to be aggressive early and utilise that advantage.

How to play it: Sachello WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) & Twice As Special WIN ($17.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 6 - 3:45PM SHALAA @ ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Bella Rouge has returned well, producing a career peak figure first-up at Kensington 16 days ago and ran second with a big gap to third. The three-year-old filly started a solid $ 3.20 second-favourite, chased a strong tempo, and tried hard to reel in a fit/well-ridden winner. Further, she ran the fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting in 12.26, and after adjustments, that race rated the highest overall relative to the day. The Chris Waller trained galloper maps to get all favours in the run and is set to step off her first-up performance. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers11. Mirra View beat Bella Rouge last start at Kensington, and although having every chance, she did it in style. The three-year-old filly went to a new level with blinkers on for the first time and can improve again. Forgive 8. Daralina Belle who was slow to recover last start and raced in torrential conditions at Canterbury 35 days ago. The four-year-old mare has trialled well at Warwick Farm in-between runs and has past ratings to put her in the finish. 12. Lisdoonvarna was run to suit when winning last start at this track but is suited in testing conditions. 10. Fearnought raced wide without cover when breaking through for her maiden win at this track 23 days ago. The three-year-old filly jumps significantly in grade, but James McDonald sticks.

How to play it: Bella Rouge WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Race 7 - 4:20PM VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

Open race. 5. Black Queen resumes and has trialled well enough in a fast time/sectional heat at Rosehill with a trackwork rider piloting. The four-year-old mare raced consistently last preparation in this grade and won three races. She will undoubtedly improve over further distance but can sprint fresh off one trial and has ratings that align well against her opposition.

Dangers1. Rangi Toa led at a moderate pace and was too strong for his rivals when winning first-up at Kensington 16 days ago. The NZ import is lightly raced with a strong record, maps to control the pace and will be hard to run down. However, key late market watch with some query second-up off a long break. 3. Ita is 2100m back to 1400m which isn't ideal but has been freshened up for this and is rock-hard fit. 8. Finepoint has had two quiet trials, hasn't been extended in either and went out a winner before spelling last preparation. Add 2. Azarmin to all exotics.

How to play it: Black Queen E/W ($15.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.


Black Queen runs third in a trial at Rosehill on April 29

Best Bet: Race 6 # 9 - Bella Rouge

Next Best: Race 4 # 1 - Bethencourt

Best Value: Race 2 # 1 - Rebel Shadow

 


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