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Some interesting fixtures this weekend, with the three title contenders strongly favoured to win their respective matches. We must wait until Tuesday morning for one of the more intriguing Merseyside derbies in recent times; the blue side of Stanley Park will be counting their sleeps as the red side look ripe for the picking.
Last weekend's results gave life to the Man Utd title cause, although their Wednesday evening draw at home to Leeds cooled the charge.
Arsenal and Man City both tasted defeat as favourites. Their midweek clash is eagerly awaited and may cause some distraction to their weekend games, as will City's off-pitch crisis with the EPL governing body over financial indiscretions.
Incredibly, round 22 was the first time since the weekend of 1, 2, 3 November 2008, a couple of days before Bart trained his 12th Cup winner Viewed, that Man City (2-0 to Bolton), Liverpool (2-1 to Spurs), and Arsenal (2-1 to Stoke) have all lost. While the race to the premiership is limited to two or three, this season has provided more uncertainty and volatility than any in recent times. Consider Newcastle, Fulham, Brighton and Brentford all sitting north of Chelsea and Liverpool in the table more than halfway through the season to get some idea of what a refreshing change of scenery we are enjoying in 22/23.
The revivals of Wolves, Forest, and Leicester gained momentum last weekend. The inexorable slides of Southampton, Bournemouth, and Leeds continued, although the managerless Leeds did show plenty of fight at Old Trafford midweek and will go down swinging.
The green shoots of a better back end of the season for West Ham and Everton appeared. Dyche's influence at Goodison was predictable and palpable, with renewed vigour in defence and far more chances created by putting the ball in the box at any opportunity. If they keep this enthusiasm up, you can rule them out of the relegation equation.
WEST HAM v CHELSEA: Saturday 11 February 11.30pm.
The Hammers have picked up five points from their last four games. Aside from a good October this is their best period of an otherwise disappointing season. Coming away from St James' Park with a deserved point is a big step forward from what we saw for the few games either side of the World Cup. Aguerd is a world class defender, whose tackle on Wilson last weekend was Bobby Moore-esque. With Pacqueta warming into the side and the pace of the league generally, and Rice his usual flawless self, things are slowly looking up.
Some of Chelsea's glamour signings were on show last weekend at the Bridge and they didn't set the world on fire, but it's a bit early to be too critical. Enzo was good, but how can the board justify paying him a UK record fee based on his form in the Portuguese league and a handful of games at a World Cup? Despite all the activity over two transfer periods, they still have nothing up front. Havertz is not comfortable as a #9, and Aubameyang is clearly out of favour. The overall effort last time was okay, but the amount of possession they turned over in the midfield simply by being beaten to passes by hard-pressing Fulham defenders suggests 95% effort, which isn't enough.
West Ham was robbed of a point by VAR in the Stamford Bridge encounter earlier this season. The Hammers have three wins and a draw from their last five home games against Chelsea. This is sure to be tight.
Prediction: Draw (3.10)
ARSENAL v BRENTFORD: Sunday 12 February 2.00am.
Arsenal tasted defeat for just the second time in the league this season at Goodison last weekend, but the performance wasn't bad. They were probably the victims of circumstances, facing a side with talent that were wounded and out to impress the new gaffer in front of a vocal home crowd. Their fierce north London rivals did them a favour by rolling Man City two days later, so there was no harm done in their trip to Merseyside.
It doesn't get any easier as they now meet the form side of the league. Brentford has not lost since 23 October and has conceded just once in the last five games. Along with Eddie Howe, the two bosses facing off today are the main contenders for Manager of the Year. Frank has proved himself to be a master tactician, and uses his resources in an outstanding way. He will no doubt have something planned for this visit to the Emirates; it will be an intriguing clash and sure to be closer than 3-0 which was the score in favour of Arsenal in the meeting at the Gtech back in September.
There is a sense of timing about this one – Arsenal must win to keep City at arm's reach before they meet on Thursday, and Brentford can't keep going (can they?). I think the price on offer is too short about the Gunners to have a bet, but I fancy they get home.
Prediction: Arsenal win (1.40)
CRYSTAL PALACE v BRIGHTON: Sunday 12 February 2.00am.
Another renewal of this acrimonious rivalry that began brewing in the mid-70s.
Palace finds itself in familiar territory, far enough ahead of the relegation to zone to be relatively comfortable, but out of contention for European spots. That 12th-15th slot is their sweet spot. Although they have only picked up two points from the last four games, the opposition has been tough and the performances commendable. As always, putting the ball in the back of the net is the problem, with just four goals in seven since the resumption.
Brighton outplayed Bournemouth in a spirited south-coast derby last weekend but had to wait until the dying stages to secure the three points. Mac Allister returns in a major boost. On the flip side Palace will again miss Wilfried Zaha so their hopes of more action on goal may be frustrated again.
The Seagulls are as effective on the road as they are at home, so the pressure-cooker that is Selhurst Park won't phase them. Even money looks generous.
Prediction: Brighton win (2.00)
FULHAM v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Sunday 12 February 2.00am.
Two of this season's promoted sides who are enjoying life in the big league.
Fulham's goals have dried up in the last three games although their performances against tough opponents Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea have all been good. Marco Silva must be pleased with his side defensively though, as they have conceded just four times in seven games since the mid-season break. Diop has been outstanding since his switch from West Ham, Tete was man-of-the-match against Chelsea last weekend, Robinson and Ream are class acts, and Palhinha who plays just in front of them is one of the best tacklers in the game.
Forest defeated Leeds at the City Ground last weekend and can thank new goalkeeper Keylor Navas; how the visitors didn't score at least a couple is astounding. Since the recommencement it has been onwards and upwards for Steve Cooper's new-look outfit. The big spend is paying off and, while they aren't safe, another season in the EPL in 23/24 now looks more likely than not.
There is a real sense that some recent anomalies might be put straight in this one. Fulham find the ideal opponent to turn the creativeness of Willian, Pereira and co into goals. Forest don't travel well, and this looks a monumental task for them.
Prediction: Fulham win (1.95)
LEICESTER v TOTTENHAM: Sunday 12 February 2.00am.
Leicester had been poor since the World Cup until a spirited draw with Brighton two games back then a big win over a high-flying Villa last weekend. Admittedly Aston Villa handed Leicester their goals on a platter, turning over possession cheaply in all the lead-ups. But the win away from home acted as a confidence booster, and they are finding the net again. While far from safe, things are looking better for the Foxes.
Spurs has responded in great fashion since their second-half capitulation against Man City on 19 January. Two 1-0 wins against Fulham and the return clash with City has put them back in Champions League territory. Kane has been the difference on both occasions and he passed a couple of personal milestones along the way. His value to Tottenham cannot be underestimated. When a fully-fit Richarlison is used more by Conte, Spurs can continue to press the top four.
One thing that looks certain is that there will be plenty of goals in this one. Spurs has won the last four meetings between these sides, scoring an astonishing 16 goals and conceding seven in the process. They met in London on 17 September and, after going to the sheds at 2-2, Conte brought on Son in the second half and his hat-trick contributed to a 6-2 drubbing.
Hard to go against the visitors, with black odds a pleasant surprise.
Prediction: Tottenham win (2.15)
SOUTHAMPTON v WOLVES: Sunday 12 February 2.00am.
The Nathan Jones experiment at St Marys is not going to plan, with the Saints deep in the red in relegation markets and on a run of just one win and eight losses from their last nine games. The big problem is ineffectiveness in attack; you have to go back to 12 November to find a scorer whose name isn't Ward-Prowse. Long-suffering fans haven't seen a win at home since that memorable 2-1 victory over Chelsea way back in August.
Wolves on the other hand has hit the jackpot in luring Julen Lopetegui to Molineux. Save for a couple of defeats to the Manchester clubs they are going along nicely and have even found the net a few times. Their three against Liverpool last weekend was the first time they had reached that mark since defeating Watford on 10 March 2022. Some sound recruitment, along with a pretty solid Portuguese-flavoured base that he inherited, gives the Spaniard a side that looks destined for mid-table safety.
Wolves last three trips to St Marys have resulted in wins. Additionally, a Daniel Podence strike gave them the three points against the Saints when they met in September. The bookies have this pretty close, so take advantage of the price on offer for an in-form side.
Prediction: Wolves win (2.50)
BOURNEMOUTH v NEWCASTLE: Sunday 12 February 4.30am.
Bournemouth are getting close to unbackable odds to be relegated and rightly so. Since the World Cup break they have picked up just one point and scored one goal. The effort against Brighton last weekend was probably their best since the mid-season break, but losing is a habit and with limited player talent it will become a hard one to break.
Newcastle extended its outstanding unbeaten run to 16 when held 1-1 at home to West Ham last time around. An early barrage that saw them in front after three minutes was quelled by the Hammers and, if anything, they were second best for large patches of that game. Defence has been the cornerstone of their success this season. Just 12 conceded in 21 games; only three in their last 12. The same back five of Pope, Trippier, Botman, Schar and Burn have provided them with stability and an understanding that the best attacks in the land have found hard to breach.
On what we have seen lately from Bournemouth, this looks a David and Goliath struggle.
Prediction: Newcastle win (1.55)
LEEDS v MANCHESTER UTD: Monday 13 February 1.00am.
We only need to go back to Wednesday evening for a form reference. These sides met in a postponed clash at Old Trafford and Leeds gave Man U an almighty fright, leading 2-0 shortly after the break and giving the home side no peace with their aggressive pressing. Two responses midway through the second term squared things up in what was a fair result.
The departure of Marsch is unlikely to bother Leeds as the effort midweek showed. They are a gung-ho side that rides its luck and, when the goals start to flow, they are tough for any side to beat. Gnonto is one of the finds of the season and is very hard to defend. Defence has long been the White's issue, a consequence of their aggressiveness when in possession.
I'm sure Ten Hag is happy for this return bout to happen so soon. The two points dropped at home on Thursday was a massive blow to his side's title prospects. Midfield suspension and injury concerns have been dissipated a little by the strong display of Austrian recruit Sabitzer. Ten Hag will still field a strong side; Rashford is unstoppable at the moment and almost nailed on for a goal a game.
Leeds' home form is not flash, with just one win against strugglers Bournemouth from their last eight at Elland Road. After the draw the other night the price about the Red Devils wound out a fraction; it now looks quite inviting.
Prediction: Manchester Utd win (1.95)
MANCHESTER CITY v ASTON VILLA: Monday 13 February 3.30am.
What do we make of Man City? Just when the locomotive looks like gaining momentum something unexpected happens. In the last eight matches they have lost at home to Brentford, surrendered a 1-0 lead in the 78th minute and lost to Man Utd, then last weekend knew Arsenal had been rolled which gave them a big sniff at the top spot but failed to score in losing to Spurs. Relentlessness is the word that comes to mind when recalling their recent successes, and it just isn't there this time. The off-field dramas won't help, with Pep in the starting blocks to bolt out the door if the financial shenanigans are proven.
Villa had been getting results without firing on all cylinders and they paid the piper against Leicester last weekend, imploding with a handful of disastrous mistakes when in possession and going down 4-2 at home. They did bounce back from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Boxing Day to defeat Spurs five days later, so Emery has instilled some resilience to this squad.
In their seven clashes since Villa's return to the top-flight in 2019, Man City has won six times, with a draw coming earlier this season at Villa Park. At the Etihad, they are undefeated against the Villains in 12 encounters dating back to 2007. The bookies love the 22/23 version of City; always short and often vulnerable. They should win, but the odds on offer are for thrill-seekers only.
Prediction: Manchester City win (1.22)
LIVERPOOL v EVERTON: Tuesday 14 February 7.00am.
The toughest match of the round to pick. It's less about form and more about psychology. Are Liverpool in such a deep funk that there is no way out? Are Everton so pumped after rolling league leaders Arsenal that they are up for anything? Do Liverpool see this is the perfect vehicle to launch a revival and put their despised neighbours back in their place? Will the contesting wills be so great that a stalemate is the only outcome?
One of the above is true. Liverpool has been so out-of-character, conceding three in defeats to Brentford, Brighton and Wolves in their last four matches. Significantly, all those games were on the road. At Anfield, the shock last-minute loss to Leeds on 29 October was the first time they had been beaten in front of fans since 23 April 2017 (the losses in the 20/21 season were at an empty stadium during Covid). Virgil is back in training and desperately needed to shore up a pretty woeful defence. With Salah, Gakpo and Nunes up front, there is no shortage of potential firepower.
Everton's win over Arsenal was not unexpected, but is it sustainable? It was a compete 90-minute effort, with every Arsenal possession met by tremendous pressure, the side covering more ground than any in the league this season. Dyche will have them fitter, keener, and better organised than Lampard. It is likely the level of enthusiasm will roll over to this massive clash. Rarely do Everton face their Red opponent in such poor form, and they will see this a great opportunity to emulate their win at Anfield over Liverpool during lockdown in 2020. I think it will be a classic encounter, with a draw outstanding value due to Liverpool's very short quote.
Prediction: Draw (4.20)
