3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Goulburn meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:45PM JEWELL BUILDERS SHOWCASE BM58 HCP (1000 METRES)
2. As You Were was plagued by wet tracks last preparation but returned well first-up at Gosford 27 days ago. However, he did have excuses that day after being blocked at a critical stage in the straight, but once clear, he hit the line well, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. The four-year-old will be fitter for that and has a positive race setup. In addition, the anticipated genuine tempo will suit and stepping onto a bigger track is ideal.
Dangers: 5. Raise Hell was well-fancied first-up at this track/distance and won easily. He goes up 5kg in weight but has a strong record and is a 1000m specialist. 1. Puerto Rico had every chance when resuming at Moruya 12 days ago and battled on well to hold third. He drops in grade and will be fitter. Market watch 6. Mil Ciento, who has trialled well enough, will be suited over more ground, and she brings solid provincial form lines.
How to play it: As You Were WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 2 - 1:25PM ABERNETHY GORE SOLICITORS SHOWCASE C1 HCP (1300 METRES)
Leaning towards 1. Flying Destiny who brings a fitness edge relative to his main rivals and maps to have complete control of the pace. The gelding is in his first prep but has progressed well and was honest last start in a high-rating race. He is consistent, has a solid SP profile and drops back to country grade. Expect him to take some catching.
Dangers: 2. Acceber resumes for his new trainer Kerry Parker and won a recent trial Kembla. He brings superior form lines to this event, including starting $8 in a Listed race last campaign. The three-year-old can sprint fresh, maps to have all favours and is a key late market watch. 6. Seany's Girl has trialled well enough and won at this track last campaign. She has multiple winning figures and can be in the finish. 4. Galactic Warrior is at optimal fitness and can improve again third-up.
How to play it: Flying Destiny WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 - 2:05PM GOULBURN EXPRESS FREIGHT COUNTRY MAIDEN HCP (1000 METRES)
Debutante 5. Spirits Burn Deep showed natural speed in a recent trial at this track, and she wasn't ridden out. Further, that heat was run in slick time, and the filly would've benefited from the experience. The three-year-old finds a winnable maiden first up and draws kindly, allowing her to follow the rail. Expect her to be hard to run down.
Dangers: 12. Tokoyo is rock-hard fit and has been honest all campaign. She has exposed form but brings a race experience edge and has multiple figures to win this event. Another first-starter in 4. Pretty Vegas is one to watch. She has trialled well enough, and although drawn wide, that is of little concern coming out of the 1000m chute. Forget 10. Lunar Ashes last start at Queanbeyan, where she blundered badly at the start. She can bounce back and is a key late-market watch.
How to play it: Spirits Burn Deep WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 - 2:45PM KURRINDA BLOODSTOCK COUNTRY BOOSTED BM58 HCP (1300 METRES)
8. Kimmylee resumed at Dubbo 14 days ago over an unsuitable distance but ran on well to savage the line. The mare got too far back, settling at the rear of the field in a moderate tempo, but made significant ground and clocked the fastest final 400m split of the meeting. She gets a much more positive race setup here where she can settle closer up in distance and the big track suits.
Dangers: 7. Irish Bride bolted in at Queanbeyan last start and produced a career peak figure. She rises in grade, but repeating her last effort can win this race. 1. Merc is in-form and has been racing well at this level. He is undefeated at the track and gets in well at the weights after the claim. Add 2. Mittata who will appreciate going back onto a dry surface, and he is rock-hard it.
How to play it: Kimmylee WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 - 3:25PM MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION SHOWCASE MAIDEN (1500 METRES)
8. Passionate Rebel started hard in the market last start at this track, but he wasn't suited to the sit/sprint tempo. Further, he ran hidden closing splits, and that race rated highly relative to the day with a subsequent winner to confirm the form. He has a strong platform and is set to peak third-up from a favourable draw. Additionally, he has a ratings edge on his rivals, and the in-form Brad Rawiller rides.
Dangers: 13. Smart Vengeance raced well first-up but was slightly flat last start at Wyong, albeit in a strong time race. She can bounce back with a positive map, and the rise in distance is ideal. 11. Ninja Star is on a quick backup and brings a fitness edge relative to her key rivals. She can roll forward and be tough to run down. 14. Stasera has been honest this campaign at the provincial level and gets her chance here back to country grade.
How to play it: Passionate Rebel WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 6 - 4:05PM TASH BURLEIGH RACING SHOWCASE MAIDEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
2. Montebello's Charm resumed at Moruya last start after having 281 days off the scene, and his run had merit. After drifting back from the wide draw, the three-year-old had too much to do and got too far back in the run. Moreover, he had excuses, but once balancing up in the final straight, he ran slick closing splits running the second-fastest final 400m/200m of the meeting. The Danny Williams trained galloper receives a significant barrier draw, allowing him to settle into a more prominent position. Additionally, he has never seen dry ground on race day and expect that to benefit him immensely. Each-way.
Dangers: 12. Impacting, who represents value, has been racing ok this campaign but finally gets blinkers on, which can improve her lengths here on past performances. The filly draws well and will roll forward. 9. Sunshine Reggae is on a 5-day backup and maps to have a much more economical run. Add 6. Eltoroson who will have benefited from his debut experience at Moruya.
How to play it: Montebello's Charm E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.
R7 - 4:45PM NEWHAVEN PARK COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS WILD CARD (1400 M)
Lightly raced improver 10. Burrandana profiles well for this event, and his run was full of merit in the SDRA Country Championships Qualifier (1400m) last start. Further, he was 30 days between runs and had too much to do after drifting back to the rear from a wide barrier. Nevertheless, he made a long-wide sustained run and hit the line hard, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. The four-year-old is on an upwards ratings spiral, brings the best last-start figure and can settle closer from a kinder draw. In addition, the big track suits and expect him to be savaging the line. Good each-way.
Dangers: 7. Tap 'N' Run comes through the same race and was wide throughout but battled on well enough. He presents to have a much more economical run throughout transit with a significant barrier change and can rate to win. 3. Toretto was blocked at a critical stage and also had the bias against him last start at Moruya. However, he hit the line hard once balancing up in the straight and will be suited back at his home track. 4. Baledon strips fitter and can improve third-up. Forget 5. Eastern Glow's last start, and he has a strong record/SP profile. Add 1. Gunsonic to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Burrandana E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 8 - 5:25PM JAN FENTON CELEBRANT SHOWCASE BM66 HCP (1600 METRES)
4. Prize Draw profiles well for this event with a strong platform, and her ratings/sectional profile suggests she's ready to peak third-up. The four-year-old has yet to be suited in both runs this prep but has raced well and performed better than the form guide reads. She draws tricky again, but the rise in trip suits and the anticipated genuine tempo will allow her to build momentum to hit the line.
Dangers: 5. Sizzling Cat was well beaten last start in a stronger grade, but he ran hidden closing sectionals. The five-year-old also presents as a significant player, with key factors pointing towards an improved performance here. Further, he can settle closer and expect a strong finish. 11. Ribeauville is honest and maps to have all favours. He brings the best last-start figure and will take some beating. 6. Martini Crusader can bounce back and add 14. Stormy Witness to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Prize Draw WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Sizzling Cat WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
