3 minute read
An in-depth look at every runner in what is a sensational edition of the Group 1 $3 million Furphy TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
1. Nature Strip (Chris Waller): They say never count out a champion and that well and truly applies to the horse rated the world's best sprinter after his Royal Ascot win. He doesn't need an introduction, he's won over $20m in prizemoney including an Everest and this race the last three years. And each time by a healthy margin. He is coming off a run well below normal for a first-up assignment, he was the first horse beaten in the Lightning and while only beaten 2.3 lengths it wasn't a typical fighting Nature Strip run. But he's burnt everyone before after a defeat. So don't dismiss him and if he gets any kind of control a fourth TJ is within his reach.
2. Lost And Running (John O'Shea): The outside barrier continues a horrible run of luck for this talented sprinter who should have contested the past two Everests. He was due to resume in the Galaxy but another small setback sees him needing to beat the best sprint field assembled for some time first-up and off a wide alley. That said, if he is able to find the back of something in the run he'd relish a solid tempo and we've seen him put in performances good enough to put him in the finish – his Premiere Stakes win in the spring one of them. You're entitled to get double figures but you wouldn't say he can't win.
3. Private Eye (Joe Pride): A gallant showing first-up in the Newmarket with 58kg and was he in the wrong part of the track right up near the inside rail? He gave the winner 6.5kg there and that drops to 4kg for the return to weight-for-age. He was runner-up in the Everest in the spring off gate three so he can react to an inside gate and he will love an Everest-like tempo to eventuate to allow him to unleash that big finish of his. If he produces efforts like his Everest or Nature Strip Stakes runs he'll be tough to hold out.
4. Mazu (Peter & Paul Snowden): Possibly a forgotten horse and he's the type that can take some advantage of the inside alley and put himself right behind the speed. Thought he was okay in the Newmarket fresh, he looked to get a little lost on the straight course but he knuckled down well the last 100m. Fitter for that, he did run third in the Everest and second in the Nature Strip so we know he is good enough.
5. Paulele (James Cummings): Finally cracked it for a Group 1 over in Perth with a last to first Winterbottom Stakes win back in November after dodging the Everest lead ups in the spring. He was fair at best when returning in the Challenge Stakes but he's not really a 1000m horse so you can be a little forgiving. However, it's hard to make a big case that he can explode off that and beat this sort of opposition so he's about the right price.
6. I Wish I Win (Peter Moody): He's had 15 starts and not really sure we're certain how good this fellow is yet. In the spring he should have won the Toorak then took out the Golden Eagle with a sharp dash before holding off Fangirl late. Transformed into a short courser this time in and he was dazzling in a closing second in the Lightning before again hitting the line in the Newmarket where he started favourite. Weights favour him a little against the winner. He's another who wants a good back to follow into the race and if he gets it he'll post a threat.
7. Overpass (Bjorn Baker): He was competitive all spring with a first-up second to Nature Strip in the Shorts, which earned him an Everest slot, and he stuck on pretty well in the Everest finishing sixth. Had to chase the money in the Golden Eagle and managed a midfield finish there and he's now returning as a gelding. If that helps him find a length or two it puts him in the mix given he has a gate he can take some advantage of and a solid first-up record.
8. Rocketing By (David Pfieffer): Won the Sydney Stakes on Everest Day running about five lengths or so slower time. He's generally a get back, run on, sort of horse and he wasn't disgraced in a midfield finish in the Galaxy but he did have 52.5kg. He's a horse that can pull out a big run at times but he looks safely held against the top liners.
9. Shelby Sixtysix (Danny Williams): The story of the autumn last year but aside from a second at Flemington in November he hasn't matched it with stakes grade to any real effect since the tracks dried up. There were signs of improvement in his Star Kingdom run and a back up suits him but the track isn't going to be nearly wet enough to give him an upset chance.
10. Giga Kick (Clayton Douglas): Everest winner in the spring and he came with a strong charge off a solid tempo there. Did it with 53kg so has to improve to go up the 3.5kg but all the signs are from his first-up run in the Challenge that he has made that progress. It was hard to miss him charging home down the outside over the 1000m in a race where the first two on the turn were the first two home and he had to concede a huge start after he stumbled out of the gates and was squeezed between horses either side. If he can land around midfield behind a good speed he could repeat his Everest finish.
11. Lofty Strike (Julius Sandhu): Another three-year-old who has definitely gone up a notch this autumn winning the Rubiton fresh then chasing home Uncommon James in the Oakleigh Plate and In Secret in the Newmarket. He's 1kg worse off for the latter clash. Tends to drift back in his races so the barrier isn't such a big deal to him and he looks the type that appreciates room to wind up. Doesn't have the profile of Giga Kick yet but is smart and might be a touch over the odds.
12. Mariamia (Joe Pride): A shot at this race is a bonus for her as she's done the job with her Group 1 win in the Galaxy under handicap conditions. She won at weight-for-age in the Expressway over this trip though the field was considerably below this one's quality. Has to try her hand to get across from the wide gate and find a top four spot in running and if she can do that then she'll run well. Whether she's good enough remains to be seen, can't fault the way she's racing.
13. Passive Aggressive (Grahame Begg): Beaten just once in six starts and that's not a bad record to take into your biggest test yet. She just stuck her nose in front of Eduardo on the line in the Challenge after stalking him all the way and has had a good hitout in a trial since then. Giga Kick was about to scream down their necks in another 100m so she will have to lift off that. Her racing pattern puts her on the speed and given she's drawn alongside Nature Strip will have him for company.
14. Shades Of Rose (Bjorn Baker): A revelation in the spring winning four straight and earning herself an Everest slot. She ran well in that race but hardly had an ideal preparation into it and to be beaten three lengths was a solid showing. Sat three wide on the pace first-up in the Galaxy and faded and she might suffer a similar fate from out there in 11. She is capable of improving but this isn't any easier than her Everest task.
15. In Secret (James Cummings): A filly hasn't won this race since 2010 but this one has shown she's a top class three-year-old in her nine starts to date. This is her acid test stepping outside her own age under weight-for-age conditions. She did it well against the older horses with her storming win in the Newmarket under 51.5kg and 1200m really is her sweet spot. Where does she find herself from the 12 alley? In races around a bend she's found herself in the first half of the field but her barriers in those races have been 1,1,5,3,2,3 and 4 so she's not had to work to find a spot. No way should she be overlooked and we will get a sense of how good she is after this run.
SELECTIONS:
10 Giga Kick
3 Private Eye
6 I Wish I Win
15 In Secret
