3 minute read
Track Soft 6 and rail True:
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):
We kick off with the maidens on a track that will continue to dry out, and very content aboard metro filly 2. Silent Raindrops third-up. Got lost resuming here in a small field, but hit the line well a fortnight back in a handy field at Newcastle. Bred to handle soft ground being by Sebring out of a Stratum mare, and was scratched from Wednesday's Kembla meeting to be saved for this.
Dangers: Progressive metro colt 5. Gustosisimo can also peak third-up with blinkers added after two city efforts. Watch the betting on 1. Parmenio who resumes off a trial win after two failures against tougher metro opposition last spring.
How to play it: Silent Raindrops to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 4YO & UP MAIDEN PLATE (1350m):
Now the older maidens go to battle over a bit more ground, and it stacks up ideally for progressive four-year-old 6. Ruby Flyer second-up. Was well supported in the market first run for 19 weeks when finding the line late from well back at Kembla, and has drawn to get plenty of cover back in the field over 150m further in a race of poor depth.
Dangers: Lightly raced 8. Twentyeightdragons can improve sharply second-up after doing his best work late nine days ago. That was his first run for more than two years, with a stronger and more experienced rider taking over here. Big gap to the rest headed by 2. Gypsy King who lines up for his fourth start in five weeks.
How to play it: Ruby Flyer to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (2100m):
Tactical maiden battle over the longer journey here. Like metro three-year-old 7. Octahedron to peak getting out significantly in distance third-up. While he's let favourite backers down in both runs this prep, can control a more relaxed speed here in what is a race of less depth. Drops 1.5kg from the Hawkesbury run when only collared late.
Dangers: Must respect progressive 4. Four O'clock Knock who also takes a timely step up 500m in distance, and is primed to peak fourth-up after hitting the line at Newcastle a fortnight ago. Improving filly 10. Aunt Roberta also disappointed punters failing to run home here three weeks ago when backed into a short-priced favourite, but even fitter now with winkers replacing blinkers. Include both 5. Hardazhell who ran home okay here at his third start; and 8. Bonaventure fifth-up; in exotic plays.
How to play it: Octahedron to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1600m):
Still with the maidens coming back to the mile, and in a race of many chances, emerging three-year-old 1. Theoneandonly shapes best at his third start. Has worked home well enough in two provincial runs through rain-affected ground to start his career, and is desperate for more ground being by Kiwi sire The Bold One.
Dangers: Plenty of them headed by 2. Boy Loves To Run who has been doing plenty of that up front this prep, but failing to finish off. Comes through that same Kembla race as the top selection, and can again give a sight around a more suitable track. Keep safe stablemate filly 11. We Don't Roam who has placed in three of her last five, and draws to get a soft run; while 6. Vegas On Fire finding a thinner race at third start; 7. Ever Was deep into his prep; and honest 10. Walk Up Start dropping sharply in weight; can all be included in wider First Four bids.
How to play it: Theoneandonly to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 MIDWAY CLASS 1 HCP (1600m):
Good quality and open race for this class. Like the value about 8. Mayapple deep into her prep, and coming off a dominant all-the-way maiden win in heavy ground just 12 days ago. Hard fit, loves the cut out of the ground, and will roll forward again from a wider draw.
Dangers: One right on the cusp is provincial mare 4. Queenmaker who chased home a smart winner here three weeks back, and has beaten all bar the winner in three of her last four. Improving 2. Acceber has to overcome the outside barrier, but he comes back in grade fourth-up with a leading metro jockey taking over. Out over more ground fifth-up, 1. The Denzel can settle closer from a better draw here after hanging on okay from a wide gate in tougher grade at Newcastle, and the winner that day scored again at the Kensington track on Tuesday. Included in exotics 3. Critical Time fourth-up; and 6. Reginald third-up over a furlong further from a soft draw.
How to play it: Mayapple each way
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):
Similar graded gallopers but this promises to be a strong form race, with several boasting impressive recent wins. Like progressive three-year-old 2. Cappelletti who is primed to produce his best fourth-up from an ideal draw. Scored a dominant front-running maiden win two runs ago before chasing hard in a deeper BM 64 here. Back out to the right journey, and thrives in soft ground.
Dangers: Big watch on talented mare 7. Principessa who resumes off two very progressive trials, and blinkers coming off is part of a string of gear chances. Keep safe 4. Surf On Turf who drew the fence second-up after a barrier-to-box fresh win at Newcastle. Both 3. Grand Crusader dropping in grade fourth-up; and 12. One Destiny who hasn't missed a place in his last three; are each-way chances at bigger odds.
How to play it: Cappelletti to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1350m):
Typical of this class, it doesn't get much easier here, but can't go past progressive three-year-old and early favourite 7. Shipshape fourth-up in his first full prep. Had to dig in hard chasing from the trail at Hawkesbury to only win by a nose, but it wasn't an easy surface to pick up ground that day, and his time for the last 600m was only fractionally behind the splits of the 1100m winners. By Group 1 winner Astern, and can take the next step here.
Dangers: Big fan of provincial mare 8. The Halo who hasn't started for four weeks and has drawn off the track, but loves rain-affected ground. Gets weight relief after the claim, and will be charging home late. Watch for any money aboard underrated 3. Two Up who comes through some very handy formlines; while progressive home track mare 11. Takara Star draws well, and steps up from consecutive wins in thinner country grades.
How to play it: Shipshape to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1000m):
We finish over the short course for similar graded runners in what will likely be the most open race on the card. Keen at the big value around five-year-old 1. Tocomah who returns for his first run in six months. Charged home from well back to win at Hawkesbury before spelling, and tuned up for this with a handy closing trial over 1000m. Will naturally settle back, but comes to hand quickly, and just needs a clear crack from the 400m to storm home.
Dangers: No doubting smart metro filly 6. Laroupe is the clear threat, also first-up with a 3kg claim behind two typical forward trials. Has a good fresh record, loves rain-affected ground, and is drawn to find an ideal trail just off the speed. Another one resuming with ability and also off two progressive trials is 2. Luna Rocks although has to slot in from a wide barrier. Keep safe too 5. Acapella Sun second-up from a soft draw; while hard fit 4. Troika over his pet distance; and well bred 9. Bayezid second-up; are both worthy inclusions in exotic bets.
How to play it: Tocomah each way
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R2 6. RUBY FLYER
R6 2. CAPPELLETTI
BEST VALUE:
R4 1. THEONEANDONLY
