3 minute read
The Queensland winter carnival peaked on Saturday with the Stradbroke Handicap, along with the J.J. Atkins and Q22.
Think About It- Peak Reached?
The rise of Think About It has been quite remarkable as he's continued to raise the bar and improve at nearly every start he's had. A first-up rating of 95+ in January suggested he might be above average before running 91, 101+, 111, 113, 122 and finally levelling out, again running to his peak of 122 in Saturday's Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap.
He's been a very popular horse throughout as well, partly due to his prices. In his seven run winning streak his average SP has been $3.60 which I would think is quite rare for a horse with such a picket fence.
In terms of his win on Saturday, he didn't have to do anything more than his Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup win, given a perfect ride again by Sam Clipperton to run out a convincing winner over Rothfire, who has actually run a new peak at 124 given the weight differential.
Weight is an interesting one because no one is marking Rothfire anywhere near Think About It at level weights any time soon, but it was a brave effort by Rothfire who has another Group 1 in him - the Manikato looks his ideal target.
As for Think About It, he sits comfortably above the recent average winner of the Stradbroke. In the past 10 years, the winning average is 118.6, with only Santa Ana Lane (124) rating higher in that time.
That includes Alligator Blood (119), Impending (119) and Linton (120) so he's in pretty good company.
The Everest deal is already locked in so obviously he'll be there, which will be interesting. He hasn't faced the absolute A-grade yet, which are I Wish I Win (127) and Giga Kick (126) and would need to improve around another two lengths to be winning The Everest. Not saying he can't do it, but the curve is (naturally) starting to level out and the jump from 122 to 126 is much harder than the jump from 118 to 122.
Different Form to Fore in J.J.
I spoke in this piece a couple of weeks back about the Group 1 J.J. Atkins and how the Sires wasn't the right lead-up. An okay rating but a very messy finish is a stark reminder that the difference between a maiden and a Group 2 can be very little for two and three-year-olds.
That proved true again on Saturday with the J.J. trifecta coming off maiden wins and Miss Joelene the best of the Sires runners in fourth.
King Colorado ran to 91 in his Kembla Grange maiden win but had promised to be a fair bit better than that off a wide run there and has improved 19 pounds to run 110 on Saturday.
That's better than last year's winner Sheeza Belter who ran to 106 (although with her allowance that would effectively be 110), but well below the likes of Converge (115), Rothfire (117+), Prince Fawaz (114) and The Autumn Sun (113+).
Still, King Colorado has done this at just his third start and you'd think would get 2000 metres no worries being by Kingman and his strength late. Races like the Group 1 Spring Champion will be high on the agenda in the spring.
Caulfield Cup Favourite?
Just quickly, Without A Fight backed up his big first up win where he ran to 118+, ripping off some big late sectionals and justified that, running to 121 in Saturday's Q22 win. That's a new peak for him and was just as impressive to the eye, again charging home and putting paid to them.
The Group 1 Caulfield Cup has been flagged as the Spring target which is the right move. He'd be up there in the weights but when you consider White Marlin is still the favourite for the race off a peak of 112, Without A Fight has lengths on that form.
Until something progressive really emerges and puts their hand up, I think Without A Fight is probably the default number one seed for the spring staying features.
