3 minute read
Track Good 4 and rail True
Race 1 2YO MAIDEN HCP (1400m):
We start with the youngsters, and it's tricky with most of the chances still early in their first prep. Like well bred 3. Highborn Harry who has hit the line from a long way back in two runs to start his career. Stays at the distance, and crucially can settle closer in the run here from a softer gate.
Dangers: Provincial gelding 1. Nay Pee Cee made an auspicious country debut three weeks back when missing by a whisker after being backed from $3.40 into $2.80. Watch for sharp improvement at his second start from 4. Revelaide, by Rebel Raider, and better drawn here for a strong metro yard. Another second start improver is 2. Ekeler who will find this easier than Saturday company on debut.
How to play it: Highborn Harry to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1200m):
Even tougher here back a furlong in trip. Love the map and trip for progressive metro filly 7. Little Baia despite tackling a harder race third-up. Has been costly for punters going under narrowly twice in the country at short odds, but afforded a 4kg weight drop here, and drawn to get cover right behind the speed.
Dangers: Godolphin filly 8. Magic Carpet held her ground in a stronger metro maiden first-up, and this is more to her liking on a bigger track, but wouldn't be diving into too short a price from an awkward draw. Big watch too from a soft draw on 3. Kangaroo Court resuming for a second prep for a leading stable behind two steady trials; while 2. Flying Birds fourth-up and a stablemate of the top selection; and honest filly 9. Miss Adamas third-up; can both figure in the minor money.
How to play it: Little Baia to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN HCP (1500m):
A tactical battle here over the middle distance. Resuming off a nine month spell, ex-Victorian three-year-old 4. Twin Turbo can strike nice and fresh, and on debut for the provincial-based Edward O'Rouke yard. Blinkers came off, and he's been given two searching trials up to 1200m, winning the latest at Warwick Farm. Will run this out being by Sebring out of a Helmet mare.
Dangers: Improving 1. Community will relish the extra ground after working home okay on debut at Hawkesbury. Similarly, 3. Felonious is looking for a longer journey and bigger track after failing to finish off in metro company first-up. Included in wider exotics 8. Interventionist drawn inside third-up; and at big odds 10. Keroessa up in distance second-up, and trained on the track.
How to play it: Twin Turbo to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 CLASS 1 HCP (1500m):
One of the tougher and widest races on the program, with many chances. No better value than beautifully bred and sparingly raced six-year-old 3. Sidereal who hasn't done a lot in two provincial runs this prep, but hits a real fitness peak here, and can be ridden a little quieter.
Dangers: From a wider draw, expect talented filly 11. Two Aye to again settle back and finish hard. Bolted in a country maiden two starts back before having a tough and checkered run at Hawkesbury, yet still made up enormous ground late. Another one still on the up is 4. Decimus who was dominant when claiming a Midway maiden two starts back before freshened and finished well in that same CL1 as the former. Keep safe at bigger odds consistent 9. Donegal Lights who has run home into a place in his last three. Progressive 2. Asva comes off a third-up maiden win at the provincials.
How to play it: Sidereal each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):
Similar class of galloper but back over the short course, and its shapes ideally for lightly raced and progressive city mare 4. Lovero second-up. Was having her first run since late spring when tracked the speed and missed by a neck in BM 72 metro company, and from a soft draw here on a much bigger track, she can again use her tactical speed early before finishing best.
Dangers: Good quality mare 5. Stylish Pedrille bolted in her maiden here two starts back before doing her best work late from a wide gate in BM 64 city grade, and drew to get nice cover. Watch the money on 7. Mount Warning who has missed narrowly in his last two at the provincials, and gets back on firmer going. Be shocked if the winner came outside those three, but include 1. Rebel Dean and 2. Sinner, both fourth-up, if you're playing the trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Lovero to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1200m):
Plenty of chances here as well in a competitive grade. Like tough four-year-old 6. Cool Lad who finally snapped a long wait for a third career win in a handy country BM 66 11 days ago. That came off a couple of strong closing efforts in similar company, and rock hard fit now, he can go right on with it, dropping 3.5kg in weight.
Dangers: Plenty of them starting with 7. Rahni Factor who led all the way in dominant fashion here two starts back against similar opposition, and has naturally early speed. Capable 5. Tinka's Lad also led from barrier to box to win a provincial BM 68 here, and is backing up in 10 days, although drawn off the track this time. Resuming 4. Putt For Dough drops down from Midway BM 72 city grade, with winkers replacing blinkers for the first time. At bigger odds and drawn in, both 1. Conceited dropping in class; and 2. Never Fails who resumes off three trials; can both run into the placings.
How to play it: Cool Lad to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):
Even contest to finish, but confident handy metro filly 5. Opito Ballerina can make it three wins from five this prep. Finished hard as a hot favourite to beat a useful country BM 58 field two starts ago before working home well against similar at Gosford. Best treated runner in the race after the claim, and looms as the one to beat.
Dangers: Big watch on talented 9. Silk Tie who improves sharply second-up dropping in class. Drawn wide, 3. Cream Rises finds a much more suitable race third-up; while 10. Catapult deep into the prep; and 13. Packer suited on the bigger track; are well in the each-way debate.
How to play it: Opito Ballerina to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R5 4. LOVERO
R7 5. OPITO BALLERINA
BEST VALUE:
R4 3. SIDEREAL
