3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Grafton meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:20PM NBN NEWS SPRINGBOARD TO FAME 2YO (1200 METRES)
Hard to go past 5. Volcanic Love, who was dominant on debut at this track 11 days ago and ran a slick overall time. He did it on both ends, always facing the breeze in a genuine tempo, accelerated away from his rivals between the 600m-200m and maintained a strong finishing speed to the line. Further, that race is rated highly relative to the day, and all key indicators suggest stepping out to 1200m second-up is ideal. The gelding is still learning but will improve from race experience, and he maps to control the pace. Will take some catching.
Dangers: 7. Drama Dodger got into an awkward spot first-up at Muswellbrook and got too far back throughout transit. Moreover, she had excuses in the straight, but once clear, she hit the line hard and clocked one of the meeting's fastest final 200m splits. Forgiving of 2. Fioprospero who wasn't suited to the race shape first-up and on the rain-affected ground. He can bounce back, and Aaron Bullock rides. 1. Enterprise Private comes through the same race as Volcanic Love, and he hit the line hard. Add 6. Cosmic Fortune to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Volcanic Love WIN ($1.65 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 12:55PM SKY INTERNATIONAL MOTHER'S GIFT (1400 METRES)
3. Byron Eyes produced a career peak figure at Ballina a fortnight ago and won with style. The mare was confidently ridden, and she easily put her rivals away, running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the entire meeting. All key indicators suggest she can step off this performance, and the rise to 1400m looks ideal. In addition, she has a solid record, maps to have all favours, and Rachel King rides for the first time.
Dangers: 1. Confessed is coming out of high-pressure races against strong opposition and sets up well here. Aaron Bullock rides and expect her to be savaging the line. Stablemate 2. Highly Ambitious is another last-start winner and receives a significant barrier change, allowing her to settle closer. 7. Mychyna began awkwardly and got too far back last start but to her credit; she showed a fast-closing speed. 1400m suits, and she will be running on.
How to play it: Byron Eyes WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 1:35PM CORBETT EARTHMOVING PTY LTD MAIDEN SHOWCASE (1175 METRES)
5. Grand Horizon is coming out of time/sectional merit races this campaign and she has a positive race setup here. The filly has raced consistently all preparation, and her ratings/sectional profile suggests she can be in the finish. In addition, she is at optimal fitness, the anticipated genuine tempo suits and expect a peak performance. Each-way.
Dangers: Debutante 7. Yurok looks a nice type and has trialled well leading into this assignment. She won a recent trial at this track where she wanst extended and went through the line full of energy. The filly receives a lugging bit, and she can sprint fresh. 8. Freewheeler gets in well at the weights after the claim for astute apprentice Braith Knock and is rock-hard fit. He must contend with a tricky draw but has multiple winning ratings. 1. Victory Gold had excuses on debut after getting into an awkward spot and getting too far back in an even tempo. Further, he clocked one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting and the step up in trip looks ideal. He will benefit from the race experience, can improve sharply and is a knockout chance. 6. Kirsten brings metropolitan form lines but has a tricky draw.
How to play it: Grand Horizon E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 2:10PM THE PROVEDORES COUNTRY BOOSTED C1 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
11. Proud With Pride has raced well this prep and was only beaten by 1.8 lengths in a much stronger grade in the Grafton Guineas Prelude (1420m) last start. The filly wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape, but to her credit, she built through her gears and closed off solidly. The anticipated genuine tempo suits and James Orman rides. Each-way.
Dangers: 1. Bellzen had every chance last start at Ballina but produced one of his career peak performances. He is rock-hard fit, the step out to 1400m suits, and maps to have all favours. 4. Blue Canasta hasn't missed a placing all campaign and should've won last start at this track. He will appreciate stepping back out to 1400m and Aaron Bullock rides for the first time. Market watch on 3. Listen To Maurice, who is now in the hands of trainer Sally Taylor. He resumes and has trialled well enough. Add 5. Golden Breeze to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Proud With Pride E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 2:50PM ERA LEGAL COUNTRY BOOSTED BELFLYER C6 PLATE (1175 METRES)
12. Coco Rox profiles well for this assignment and gets in very well under the race conditions. The four-year-old was heavily backed late in the trade first-up at Doomben but had excuses and ran ok. She gets multiple positives in her favour in this event, which looks like a target race by the stable. The mare will receive a senior rider, has a gear change and assuming sharp improvement here. Additionally, she was honest in defeat second-up last campaign behind, I Am Me, who subsequently went on to SP hard in the market in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m). Repeating that performance/figure will make her hard to beat. She has a strong record and expecting an aggressive ride early, making her hard to catch.
Dangers: 11. Snazz 'N' Charm has been racing well/consistently and is coming out of a high-pressure race. Some query back in the distance, but he is a rock-hard fit and maps well. Forgiving of 5. Time For Victory who didn't have much luck last start at Port Macquarie. However, he hit the line well once in clear air and can bounce back here. 3. Field Regiment found the line well in a recent trial at Ballina and add 2. Andy to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Coco Rox WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 3:25PM VILLAGE GREEN HOTEL BM 66 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
6. Baiyka resumes without an official public trial, and the mare won this exact race last year. She sets up well here with a favourable map and can stalk the speed throughout. Further, she is two from two at this track/distance and has a strong fresh record. James Orman rides and expect her to be hard to hold out with even luck.
Dangers: Forgive 3. Debussy's last start where he was three-wide out on a limb throughout in a Class 3 TAB Highway (1100m) at Rosehill. Prior to that start, he was honest in a Country Open Handicap when finishing second. The four-year-old must carry a hefty weight but receives a significant barrier change and maps well. 8. Small Town returned improved and easily won first-up at this track. He has a trickier draw but will roll forward. 1. Alpha Go brings strong form lines to this event and add 10. Oblivion to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Baiyka WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 4:05PM WESTLAWN FINANCE GRAFTON CUP (2350 METRES)
2. Zoumon has been a model of consistency this preparation and has gone to a new level. The gelding has been brave and too tough for his rivals in his past two starts and has run time. He led at a fast tempo from an overall pace rating perspective last start in the Caloundra Cup (2400m), and when challenged, he kept responding under pressure. Additionally, that race rated well, and the margins throughout confirmed the quality. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott galloper jumps 4kg in weight, but he has run a consistent figure that will put him in the finish and will make him hard to get past.
Dangers: 9. Outlandos and 11. Shameless Miss, who both come through the same form reference, raced well last start. The two gallopers get in well at the weights and are proven at the distance. 7. Benaud was given a confidence-building win last start when bolting in by 6.3 lengths at Wyong. He has a strong starting price profile in Group races and can make it back-to-back wins. 1. Spirit Ridge is now at optimal fitness and 6. Tappy's Lad maps well with a significant barrier change.
How to play it: Zoumon WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 4:40PM SIR JAMES KIRBY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
1. Remlaps Gem returns after trialling well in a fast time heat relative to the morning at the Sunshine Coast. Further, he showed his customary natural speed throughout and went through the line not extended. He hasn't won in a long-time but is a proven fresh performer, a 1000m specialist and can sprint fresh.
Dangers: 6. Le Melody has a strong overall record and SP profile. She has a tactical map advantage over some of her key rivals, and expect her to run well. 8. Austeja is a knockout chance who may get the last shot and add 4. Classy Jaybee who has a gear change.
How to play it: Remlaps Gem WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
