Search

show me:

Neil Evans' tips for Muswellbrook (Monday)

3 minute read

Track Good 4 and rail out 5m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away and True the remainder:

Picture: Steve Hart

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m):

On a surface drying out all the time and comfortably getting back into Good range, emerging filly 9. One Beat No Beat can strike in the opening maiden at only her second start. Came off two handy trials to thunder home late on debut and miss by a long head, and over more ground on a much bigger and wider track with a light weight, she looms as the one to beat.

Dangers: Improving mare 6. Suncraft hit the line impressively on the Beaumont track two starts back, and is now ready to win fourth-up with a significant jockey change. Watch the betting on home track filly 10. Specula by Epaulette who debuts behind two improving trials for the Todd Howlett yard. Another one fourth-up and with winkers removed, 11. Tayla The Sailor is right in the mix fourth-up from a softer draw, but under the odds.

How to play it: One Beat No Beat to win

Race 2 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m):

From the inside gate with winkers going on for the first time, provincial-based filly 3. All Too Sneaky is well suited second-up off a month-long break. Tracked the speed and held her ground resuming in a handy CL1, and will carry only 54.5kg after the claim.

Dangers: A little step up in trip looks ideal for improving Newcastle four-year-old 1. Tamar third-up. Has worked home well in two runs back against better opposition, and despite a big weight hike, is a typical Tavistock screaming out for more ground. Must keep safe metropolitan-based 4. Dylan's Lad who bolted in a country maiden three starts back before beating all but the winner in his last two, the latest disappointing as a red-hot favourite in a thin race at Orange. Last start maiden winner and stablemate of the top selection, 5. Bold Storm is hard fit, and gets a good run on the map either leading or sitting right behind. Inconsistent 2. Bob knocks up finding ways to get beat as his one win and 12 placings from 32 starts suggests. That said, he found the line late when resuming in a tougher provincial race, and his second-up record his fair.

How to play it: All Too Sneaky to win

Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (900m):

Back to the short course for a tricky maiden. Settled on three-year-old Headwater gelding 4. Hedged Your Bets on debut at big odds for the Jeremy Gask yard. Showed good cruising speed to narrowly miss in a Scone trial, with a gap back to third, and the stock are renowned for coming to hand quickly.

Dangers: Keep very safe lightly raced filly 9. First Person who has trialled smartly since a fair return at Hawkesbury. Big watch on locally-trained 1. Olimba who was close-up resuming in a handy maiden, although likely to sit further back here from a wider gate. The market will tell a story with Your Song mare 2. Find My Song who opens her career in winkers for a little-known provincial stable, but was close-up in a recent Gosford trial. Include 5. All Too Zatso at long odds; and 7. Copper Satin, both second-up with multiple gear changes; in trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Hedged Your Bets each way

Race 4 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1500m):

Testing and tactical battle at this level over a middle distance. Progressive and lightly raced four-year-old 3. Rematch can go back-to-back third-up. Was fair to the line resuming in CL2 company before ridden stone quiet and charging home to win a CL1 at Newcastle. Naturally up significantly in weight, but will relish the extra trip here, and "Top Gun" pilot Aaron Bullock returns to the saddle.

Dangers: Tough and consistent 4. Rebel's Edge dug in hard to claim a similar race at Grafton, although carries only 1kg less than the top selection. Watch the betting closely on 2. Crystal Chief who was rock solid in the placings in three straight runs before doing it way too tough from a wide draw in a much deeper CL3 Highway at Rosehill. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Rematch to win

Race 5 MAIDEN HCP (1500m):

Tough middle distance maiden where the market will prove a big indicator. Emerging Randwick filly 7. Worth Avenue by Trapeze Artist can produce a peak run third-up in just her second prep. Has found the line fairly in consecutive provincial Super Maidens when not overly suited, and is better placed here parking midfield in the run with plenty of cover.

Dangers: Improving 1. Oakfield Eagle is also set to peak third-up over further after being beaten under two lengths in a Super Maiden. Keep safe stablemate 2. Red Cobra getting home hard fourth-up from a wide draw and dropping back from provincial opposition. Watch for any money around first starter 4. O'ziggy for the Bjorn Baker yard. Comes through two progressive trials, starts in blinkers, and is by 2017 Victoria Derby winner Ace High and out of a Listed-winning NZ mare. Both 6. My Mate Cobber and 8. Our Frankie can run into the minor money.

How to play it: Worth Avenue to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):

Progressive five-year-old 2. Mr Wallace is primed to build on a very handy fresh record in his first start for 23 weeks. Bred for speed, draws to get cover just off speed, and is reasonably weighted for this class after the claim.

Dangers: Tough and improving 4. Waterworld is a big threat fourth-up staying at this distance. Very stiff not to win at Coffs three runs ago, and held her ground okay at Kembla 16 days ago in a strong race where the runner-up then came out and won a BM 64 next start at Hawkesbury. Big watch on 5. Strapparsi first-up for more than nine months and having his first outing for the Lees yard since transferring up from Victoria. Has natural speed, given two easy trials, and gear changes have been made. Honest 1. Geewhiz Johnny is weighted to his best second-up, but has a 60 percent place rate from 18 career starts across deeper provincial races. Included in exotic bets, 3. Sightseer from a better draw with the regular jockey back on; and 6. She's A Bad Girl who peaks third-up.

How to play it: Mr Wallace each way

Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1280m):

Plenty of chances in the closer headed by capable five-year-old 7. Turnaway who returns for his first outing since early June. Fitted to run this out with two trials up to 1000m, and comes to hand quickly.

Dangers: A stack of them starting with honest 2. Master Of Rewards who finally drops down from a string of mixed runs in much deeper Highway grade, although a query back 220m in trip only 16 days between runs. Keep safe 4. Appetite For Risk deep into the prep, with a far more senior and stronger rider taking over. Underrated 6. Seeni has won two of his last three against thinner opposition, and was scratched from a winnable race at Coonabarabran on Sunday to be saved for this. Big-finishing mare 8. Lago's Daughter is also a knock-out chance.

How to play it: Turnaway to win

BEST BETS:
R2 3. ALL TOO SNEAKY
R4 3. REMATCH

BEST VALUE:
R7 7. TURNAWA


Racing and Sports

What’s gambling really costing you?

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au