3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 6:00PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
1. Dazzle Legend resumed as a gelding at this track a fortnight ago and started a well-fancied favourite but had no luck. The three-year-old raced slightly keen in an even tempo and then was checked/blocked for most of the straight, going through the line not entirely tested. He always gave the impression more ground would suit and expect him to improve significantly. In addition, Nash Rawiller sticks; he maps to have all favours and has a dominant ratings profile relative to his rivals.
Dangers: 6. Iced Chocolate comes through the same race as Dazzle Legend and was honest battling on for fourth. The filly was on debut that night and will undoubtedly come on from that with race experience and maps to control the pace. 4. Invade And Conquer was heavily backed first-up at Kembla, and he should've won but had genuine excuses. 5. Emirati Rose is a knockout chance who ran hidden sectionals in a high-rating race at Hawkesbury in her first start. Market watch on 2. Captain Furai, who has trialled well and looks wound up for this event.
Race 2 - 6:30PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1900 METRES)
Leaning towards 1. Counter, who ran a much-improved race last start at this track/distance in a stronger grade, and that form has since been confirmed with a subsequent winner. The Chris Waller galloper was run to suit but travelled well throughout and was building through his gears strongly before his momentum haltered at a critical stage in the home straight. Further, he never shirked his task to the line and finished second. He is proven at this distance range, and Nash Rawiller rides for the first time.
Dangers: Expecting 11. Mountain Top to improve sharply up to the 1900m, and she is ready to peak fourth-up. The filly is coming through a high-pressure race and maps to have all favours. 9. Egyptologist did a lot wrong on debut 33 days ago at Goulburn, but his run had merit. The gelding missed the start, had the race shape against, but still hit the line hard, running fast closing splits. He's still learning but has untapped ability. 4. Thermodynamic didn't handle the tight turning track last start and wanted to hang badly. However, expect his manners to have improved under the guidance of trainer Chris Waller. Kirikan had no luck last start and 3. Tell The Future receives blinkers for the first time.
Race 3 - 7:00PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Keen on 1. Hokusai who was brave in defeat first-up, producing a career peak figure at Hawkesbury, and was only narrowly beaten by subsequent winner Gitalong. The filly showed natural pace to lead at an even tempo, sprinted hard and was in a duel the entire straight. Further, she recorded some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting and beat the rest easily. To add further merit to her performance, that race rated exceptionally well relative to the day, and any improvement off that effort will make her hard to beat. Additionally, she fits the Canterbury 1100m profile with Tim Clark riding, and dry ground is ideal.
Dangers: Nothing went right for 8. To The Extreme on debut at this track/distance 21 days ago, and her run had hidden merit. The three-year-old missed the start, had the race shape against, and was bumped on the turn but still ran some of the meeting's fastest closing splits. She can improve with race experience and the anticipated genuine tempo suits. 9. Wezza resumes off a 170-day break and was ridden out to run second in a recent heat at Newcastle. She maps to have all favours and can rate to win. 11. Waterski has had factors against all prep and add debutante 3. Monte Kate to wider exotics.
Race 4 - 7:30PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
3. Newfoundland is an Irish import now in the hands of Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, and he brings solid form lines that line up well for this event. He is still relatively lightly raced and has had two solid hitouts at the trials leading into this event. Further, he has a strong SP profile and brings an X-factor with a completely different form line. Expect him to roll forward and give a sight.
Dangers: 4. Yet He Moves bounced back into the winner stall last start at this track/distance 14 days ago. The Chris Waller galloper was well-ridden but was strong to the line and out-toughed his rival in a tight finish. He rises 2kg off that win but maps well. Stablemate 5. Ring Ahoy comes through the same race and started favourite. Moreover, he had multiple factors against and ran on ok. 1. New Republic can improve back on dry ground, and he has a strong record at the track.
Race 5 - 8:00PM BIVOUAC FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Afterlight is in career-best form and produced a peak figure last start when bolting in at Warwick Farm 16 days ago. The mare led at an even tempo and sprinted away from her rivals, showing key attributes, and she clocked slick time relative to the day. Further, the margins throughout confirmed the quality of the race. She sets up well here from an inside draw with Nash Rawiller riding, and repeating her last start figure will make her hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Euros has a tricky draw, but expect her to improve sharply here. She resumed at this track/distance a fortnight ago but had excuses after missing the start. Further, she had to exert too much energy throughout and peaked on her run. The mare will be fitter for that, holds a strong record at Canterbury, and is a second-up specialist. 9. Power Ballard broke through for her maiden first-up and ran time. She can roll forward and give a sight. Add 8. Silent Raindrops and 3. Queen Of The Mile to trifectas and first fours.
Race 6 - 8:30PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
5. Master Showman resumed as a gelding at this track 21 days ago and was honest running fourth. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou galloper wasn't suited over the 1100m and gave the impression he would improve for the outing. Moreover, everything about his sectional profile suggests he would step off that effort, and the rise in trip is ideal where he can travel in a more natural rhythm. The four-year-old has multiple winning figures for this and will press forward for the awkward draw.
Dangers: 1. Givara is an improving type who raced well last prep and can sprint fresh here. The gelding has had a quiet trial leading into this, and expect him to be savaging the line with anticipated genuine tempo. 7. Merry Mac Boy was caught three-wide out on a limb working in a genuine tempo first-up at Warwick Farm and would have come on from that run. 4. Karedada has been well found in early markets but is a lightly raced improver and add 3. Anythink Goes to wider exotics.
Race 7 - 9:00PM KIA EVENING STAR (1550 METRES)
5. Baltic Coast was 35 days between runs last start at Kembla Grange in a stronger grade race and ran an honest third. Further, he had last use of the track and had to travel in inferior ground but never shirked his task to the line. He's ready to improve up in distance, brings multiple winning figures to this event, and won fourth-up last pep.
Dangers: 4. Money From The Sky was a savage drifter late in the trade first-up at this track/distance 21 days ago, but he overcame factors to score, and his win had merit. The five-year-old had the race shape against and had to make a long sustained sprint but ran over the top of his rivals. Moreover, the clock backed up the visuals, and he profiles well for this event. 7. Edmond was heavily bacjed first-up to score for his new trainer Kim Waugh and ran time. He can step off that effort and is proven at this distance range. 9. Jumeirah Beach brings a solid SP profile and can bounce back here with a positive ride.
Race 8 - 9:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
11. Grand Crusader is well placed at the weights and ready to peak third-up with a strong platform. The gelding chased a fast tempo last start in a similar grade at Sandown and battled on ok. Prior to that start, he raced well and was only narrowly beaten at Moonee Valley. He has a fitness edge relative to his key rivals, and he maps favourably with winkers on for the first time. Each-way.
Dangers: 12. Mr Kennedy is an interesting runner who resumes and went out on a career peak figure before spelling last campaign. He hasn't been extended in two trials leading into this and looks ready to sprint fresh with the blinkers off. Additionally, he's a consistent type and holds a placing behind Ozzmosis. 8. Border Control has recorded slick closing splits in both runs this prep and 10. Accredited overcame difficulties to score first-up.
