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Neil Evans' Tips For Kempsey (Monday)

3 minute read

Track Good 4 and rail true.

Racecourse : Kempsey (Australia)
Racecourse : Kempsey (Australia)

Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1900m)

We kick things off with a competitive distance battle for this grade. Keen on improving provincial four-year-old 2. Vardon fifth-up, but crucially freshened up a month between runs. Was well backed last time here when only run down late, and tackled better provincial company early in spring.

Dangers: Sparingly raced 6. Golden Garden swept home for a dominant CL1 win here over the same trip beating the top selection, and only goes up half a kilo after the claim. Tough 1. Nature Boy is hard fit and boxed on for a fair way in a deeper race last start. Rolls forward again from this barrier, and carries the same weight after the claim. Keep safe 3.Ottoman Empire who wasn't far away in CL2 company last start, and gets good weight relief fourth-up; while 4. Seething Chuck and 5.Irish Knight ; go into exotic plays.

How to play it: Vardon to win

Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (1450m)

After twice working home solidly into a place this prep, improving mare 11. Tosen Dreamer is primed to break through over a furlong further. Naturally bred to get well beyond the mile, and best suited under the set weights conditions of the race.

Dangers: Keep safe lightly raced three-year-old 6. The Manager who found the line well on debut in a handy maiden, and gets a key jockey change. Another one peaking third-up is 2. Charlie Bali despite climbing in weight. Include tough 4. Nikody's Diego who has run home into a place in his last three, and afforded a 3kg claim here; while 3. El Caballo heads the rest.

How to play it: Tosen Dreamer to win

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)

It doesn't get a whole lot easier here back over the five furlong dash, but debutant four-year-old 2.Kevin Mckeen by Keane can who open his career with a bang in a race lacking depth. Gets important gear additions, and won a lead-up trial comfortably.

Dangers: Honest mare 7. I'm Brazilian, likes to roll forward, and is right in the mix here having placed in his last couple. Included in all trifecta and first four bets, 10. Callie Cool at her fifth start; improving filly 11. Geoff And Jenny at her third start; and likely leader 12. Romi with gear changes.

How to play it: Kevin McKeen to win

Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1250m)

Tricky maiden here, but with on speed five-year-old 2. Friar's Destiny returning for a second full prep. Hasn't publicly trialled, but drawn to get a soft run and has early tactical speed.

Dangers: Naturally, Proisir filly and early hot favourite 5. Lost Illusions for the Kris Lees yard is the one to beat coming back from a tougher provincial race, and 50m in trip; while stablemate 4. Ice Bound debuts behind two quiet trials. Expecting improvement from 6. Transition  third-up who can run into the minor money at good odds.

How to play it: Friar's Destiny to win and quinella 2 and 5

Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1450m)\

No reason why progressive and reliable mare 1. Cassia Lane can't make it three wins from four starts this prep, and take her winning strike rate to an impressive near 25 percent. Tracked the speed before driving home best to claim a better BM 58 at Grafton 22 days ago, and she's drawn to stay out of traffic and be presented down the middle from the turn.

Dangers: Progressive mare 7.Oakfield Mamselle is a serious threat three weeks after a smart fresh win for the Lees and Aaron Bullock combination, and she draws to find another handy trail right behind the speed. Respect for 3. Inviva coming back from a deeper race 18 days between runs, and suited back on a dryer surface. The market will tell an obvious story around 2. Bladnoch first-up for 45 weeks without any official trials, but normally comes to hand early in the prep. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Cassia Lane to win

Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1250m)

Improving four-year-old 3. Bellzen is drawn to strike here via a soft trail second-up in what is only a moderate affair.

Dangers: If lightly raced 1. Roman Rebel can overcome the wide barrier, he's right in the hunt resuming off a 34-week break. Trialled well, and was a dominant winner on debut back in February; while 6.La Quinta Donna second-up; and 8. Revealer fourth-up; can both run into the money.

How to play it: Bellzen to win

Race 7 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m)

Competitive short course affair to close the meeting, and it sets up ideally for capable five-year-old 1. Hauraki Gulf fourth-up. Hit the line hard from well back in a similar race here two starts ago before settling closer and only missing by a head in the feature Newmarket at Armidale. Already a winner at this track.

Dangers: Keep safe 2.In A Step who gets a soft run from the fence draw, and the weight is off-set by a 3kg allowance. Last start BM 58 winner 4. Lady Tulessa  getting further down in the weights; 3. Adamdeeant who is hard fit; and 6. October Revolution on a quick back-up rising in grade; can all figure in the money.

How to play it: Hauraki Gulf to win

BEST BETS:
R1 2. VARDON
R2 11. TOSEN DREAMER

BEST VALUE:
R5 1. CASSIA LANE


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