3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday's Warwick Farm meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 1:40PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS PLATE (1100 METRES)
2. Hartman returns as a gelding, and his recent trials suggest he is wound right up for this assignment. He had factors against him in both runs last prep, and before spelling last prep, he had excuses in a high-rating race won by Arctic Glamour. He maps well, and James McDonald rides. Each-way.
Dangers: 9. Love And Light brings strong formlines/figures into this, and she has trialled well coming through a fast time heat. Debutant 3. Je Reve trialled sharply with the blinkers to win a recent heat at Rosehill and did it easily. He'll need luck from the draw but has the ability. Market watch on the other first starter 1. Detendu.
How to play it: Hartman E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 2:15PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1400 METRES)
10. Pasima was a drifter late in the betting last start in the Magic Millions Maiden Plate (1400m) at the Gold Coast, but his run had sectional merit, and he flashed home into second. The colt was run to suit, but he had multiple excuses. Further, he had the track pattern against and was checked/blocked at key stages, halting his momentum, but to his credit, once clear, he reeled off one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting. He must go back from the wide draw, but he returns to his home track and finds a winnable race here.
Dangers: 5. Dimitrov comes through the same race as Pasima and SPed favouite. However, his run can be forgiven after the gelding resented the blinkers, and he raced wide throughout. He can bounce back with a gear change and brings multiple winning figures. Debutant 4. Blacklist is a nice type and has trialled well. He savaged the line in a recent heat at Newcastle to score, expecting him to be near the finish. 16. Miss Chenery and 17. Rennata both present as knockout chances and go in wider exotics.
How to play it: Pasima WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
R3 - 2:50PM THOROUGHBRED INDUSTRY NATIONAL PONY RACING SERIES HCP (1400 M)
6. Hell Hath No Fury has gone to a new level this prep and won easily at this track/distance 16 days ago. The four-year-old was well-backed late in the trade and had every chance in the run but ran solid time. Additionally, she has a positive race setup, and although rising 2kg, from a figures perspective, repeating her last start rating will make her hard to beat.
Dangers: 11. Imposant recorded a career peak figure first-up and Newcastle and then had excuses last start at Wyong when running third. She is still lightly raced, and the blinkers go on for the first time. 2. Speak Up has been building towards a peak performance and Nash Rawiller rides. 5. Tsarina Sophia has been racing well all prep and gets her chance here with a significant barrier change.
How to play it: Hell Hath No Fury WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 3:25PM OLE KIRK FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
3. Franz Josef was impressive, winning on debut at Randwick 31 days ago, and he did it on both ends. The three-year-old always faced the breeze in a genuine tempo, accelerated hard and fought off the late challenge of Pure Alpha, who subsequently went on to win his next start. Further, that race rated well relative to the day, and the margins throughout confirmed the quality. He's had a tick-over trial between runs, Tim Clark rides, and all key indicators suggest he can make the step-in grade.
Dangers: Forget 4. Hyde Park's last start, where he was found to have post-race issues. Prior to that effort, his run had sectional merit, and he is a knockout chance if he can bounce back to that form with the blinkers on for the first time. 5. Ashfall presents as another runner who is over the odds and can win this event. 8. Take Me To Church savaged the line to win first-up and gave the impression last start he was looking for more ground after performing below market expectations. He'll appreciate the rise to 1600m.
How to play it: Franz Josef WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 4:00PM BIVOUAC FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
3. Master Showman has raced well all preparation and finds a winnable race here. The gelding wasn't suited to the race shape last start at this track, and he ran on hard into third behind improving galloper Accredited. Further, he clocked some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting, with the race's overall time and last section having merit. He has a tricky draw, but the 1300m start is forgiving coming out of the back chute with only one turn. In addition, he has multiple winning figures and Nash Rawiller sticks.
Dangers: 8. Kangaroo Court resumes and has improved between trials. The Waterhouse & Bott galloper has a strong first-up record and can sprint fresh from the soft draw. 2. Whinchat is another runner returning and has had the two trials leading into this event. Further, he hasn't been extended in both heats and went through the line full of energy. Market watch on 10. Stylised and 5. Byron is an honest on pace type.
How to play it: Master Showman WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 4:40PM INGLIS AUSTRALIA DAY CUP (2400 METRES)
2. Naval College is on an upwards ratings spiral this preparation, and he bolted in to win last start. Further, he won by a dominant margin, broke the Rosehill 2000m track record and did it easily. The import has gone to a new level in his second Australian prep; he can sprint off slow/fast tempos, and the rise to 2400m here only looks positive. Moreover, he rises sharply in weight, but James McDonald rides from a positive draw.
Dangers: Forget 3. Torrens' run last start after being caught three-wide out on a limb working throughout. He can bounce back, and his previous two efforts were solid. 7. Yankee Hussel is looking to make it four wins in a row and is on the quick backup. 4. Love Tap can settle much closer with a significant barrier change and add 11. Deficit.
How to play it: Naval College WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 5:20PM THE ARROWFIELD ADVANTAGE HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
Leaning towards 3. Secret Revolution who won with style first-up at Canberra 28 days ago. He started a well-fancied odds-on favourite, had nearly every chance, but put his rivals away easily, and his final few bounds had merit. All his peak figures have come over the 1000m specialist distance, and he maps to be smothered away. Additionally, he'll need a touch of luck, but if the gaps appear, expect him to be strong late.
Dangers: 10. Shezanalister is another last-start winner, and she ran time to score at Canterbury. Further, that was a career peak figure, and after being given no peace throughout transit, she sprinted hard, maintaining a solid finishing speed to the line. 4. Dipsy Doodle always gave the impression she would return improved, and she has trialled impressively. She has a tricky draw, but James McDonald rides, and she can rate to win. Add 7. Oceans One who maps well and lines up nicely here at odds.
How to play it: Secret Revolution WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 4 # 3 – Franz Josef
Next Best: Race 5 # 3 – Master Showman
Best Value: Race 1 # 11 – Te Pani
