3 minute read
Track Heavy 9/10 and rail true.
Race 1 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1900m):
We start over the longer trip on a track likely to stay well into heavy range with some more rain forecast. Improving and underrated mare 6. Wannawinwin is deep into her current prep, and ready now for the longer journey. Found the line well into a place in similar heavy going over a mile last start, and carries 1kg less here. The wetter the better being by Wandjina and out of a More Than Ready mare.
Dangers: Improving 3. My Sonny's Faith zoomed home from the back to win a similar race at Grafton five weeks back, and has handy form on rain-affected ground. Tough 2. Nature Boy is fresh and very honest. Only missed a place once in his five runs across seven weeks late last year, and despite not having publicly trialled, comes to hand and is a reliable weight carrier. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Wannawinwin to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1450m):
Improving four-year-old 7. French Delivery finds an ideal and very moderate race to finally break through deep into the prep. Was only fair to the line in consecutive runs across deeper provincial opposition before working home from further back on a heavy 9 at Muswellbrook. That run reads very well for this, and he can settle back with cover and be produced from the 350m.
Dangers: Honest mare 5. Cats Quarters has an ordinary record from 12 starts, but her effort against provincial opposition last start when backed from $4.20 into $3.30 was enough to suggest she can be right in the finish here. Include 2. Cool Machine with blinkers added deep into her initial prep; 6. Fighting Daughter on a quick back-up; and 8. Frenchburg with blinkers also going on; in all exotic plays.
How to play it: French Delivery to win
Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1000m):
Resuming and lightly raced three-year-old 2. Bob's Last One has plenty of ability, and rates on top. Showed enough in three runs to start his career late last year, and should have won on debut when badly held up from back in the field before rocketing home. Untried in this sort of going, but gets a 2kg claim, and only has to get anywhere near that previous form to win.
Dangers: Improving filly 7. Fools Play is the immediate threat peaking third-up. Has hit the line well into two placings this prep, and right at home on rain-affected ground. Keep safe 3. Hardash resuming from a longer break for only his third start, and was close-up in a recent trial; while 4. Alzurri is a market watch for the Brett Cavanough yard with blinkers being added five weeks after a poor run on debut. Check the betting too on 1. Mr Damage who comes back in distance after dropping right out in a better maiden at Grafton.
How to play it: Bob's Last One to win
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1250m):
In a very moderate maiden, improving filly 11. Mosgiel Daisy can pounce at only her second start. Ran on okay debuting on a Heavy 10 at Tuncurry, and fitter now staying well off the fence here, she doesn't need to find much more.
Dangers: Improving second-up, 2. Rockinfeller can run into the minor money over 150m further. Expect sharp improvement from 4. Fortheo at his second start; while 1. Crown'm resuming; and 5. Mr Villa second-up behind a five week break; both go into trifecta and first four plays.
How to play it: Mosgiel Daisy to win
Race 5 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m):
Back to the shorter sprint, and this shapes nicely for underrated five-year-old 3. Another Balconyboy second-up off an eight week turnaround. Carried the same weight to settle back and hit the line hard in a better race at Grafton, and 11 days between runs is a sure sign he's come on well from that. Both his two wins from 15 career starts have come in soft ground.
Dangers: Tough last start winner of that race is 1. Iobject now at peak short-course fitness, draws well, and carries the same weight after the jockey's claim. Improving mare 4. Our Pebbles also flashed home from the back in that same Grafton race, but being by Spirit Of Boom is a real query in the ground. Included in exotics 2. Courageous Queen second-up off a long break; and honest 4. Welloutoreach fifth-up; while 5. Miss Arizona fancies rain-affected going and is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Another Balconyboy to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m):
Progressive provincial mare 1. Catchy Tunes is primed to make it two wins from her last four, staying over the trip. Tracked the speed before winning a provincial maiden three starts back, and showed his liking for wet tracks only 11 days ago, hitting the line to miss by a whisker against some handy ones in similar grade at Muswellbrook.
Dangers: Progressive filly 6. Call Me Super showed a tonne of speed to win first-up as a short-priced favourite in soft ground over 800m. Will be right there, but the last 150m is a query. Was scratched from Ballina last Friday to be saved for this. Despite a poor strike rate 2. Nasdaq Dubai can run into the minor money second-up; while expect sharp improvement from 4. Burnt Butter also second-up, also with a liking for soft and heavy tracks.
How to play it: Catchy Tunes to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1250m):
One of the more open races is saved for last, yet it shapes well for consistent four-year-old 2. Crowie's Shout who is hard fit and carries weight. Was beaten under a length in a better BM 58 two starts back before again working home from just off the speed at Walcha. Has been hard in the market in his last three, and boasts a healthy strike rate from 17 starts.
Dangers: Keep safe 3. Twilight Rock who led for a long way at Grafton, and hasn't been out of the money in five runs since early December. Tough sprinter 1. October Revolution goes back up in distance after missing by a nose when driving home between runners in much tougher grade at Tuncurry. Relishes wet tracks, although has to cart a big weight coming back to this level. Watch the betting on 4. Wonderwhen who can improvely sharply fourth-up after blowing the start at Armidale five weeks ago. Honest 5. Geewiz Johnny and 6. Tornado Light dropping back from BM 64 metro grade; head the rest.
How to play it: Crowie's Shout to win
BEST BETS:
R4 11. MOSGIEL DAISY
R6 1. CATCHY TUNES
BEST VALUE:
R5 3. ANOTHER BALCONYBOY
