The Kensington track is a horses for courses set up and the Peter Robl trained Finally Realise fits that mold in the Midway.
A model of consistency last preparation he has placed in three of four attempts on the Kenso and looks well set up with three trials under the belt.
He's won his last two trials, most recently scoring easily at Canterbury over 890m.
Finally Realise has placed in two of three attempts fresh and both of his career wins came over this distance range.
From the inside draw he looks to land leader's back and get every chance.
Can be a bit tricky when trying to extricate yourself from the coffin but expect Budhwar to roll along and string the field out, which should allow Finally Realise to get clear.
When assessing Timeform weight adjusted ratings he appears well placed on best form and no doubt this has always been a long term target.
His career best performance came at this very course and distance.
Early shoppers were able to land 15-1 about his chances (terrific bet) but I still feel his value with around 9-1 still available.
Given the advantageous map can easily mark him favourite.
The Chris Waller trained Toomuchtobear was very impressive in his return and he appears well in-line to go back-to-back in the eighth event.
A winner of four of his eight starts, there was plenty against him fresh (1400m would be too short, he was going to concede from the draw and he would have improvement to come) however he was still too good.
On Saturday he is sure to appreciate the step up in trip, gets a chance to settle much closer and with natural improvement second up he is sure to take plenty of beating.
The RnS model has him marked odds-on and while I'm not that aggressive he looks a great bet with $3.10 (TAB) still available on Thursday afternoon.
I struggle to see how you could not have him as clearly the horse to beat.
Simon Dinopoulos' Tips: