3 minute read
The mares get their chance at Group 1 glory this Sunday at Tokyo in the Victoria Mile.
Mares get just one chance against their own sex without the three-year-olds to win a Group 1 in Japan and so Sunday's Group 1 Victoria Mile (1600m) will be hotly contested as per usual.
The focal point of the race is Japan's favourite darling, the all-white Sodashi who is looking for back-to-back wins in the race, having run her equal peak rating of 121 in a two-length win last year.
To create even more Australian interest, Damian Lane has been called up for the coveted ride, and she's gone and drawn barrier 16 of 16.
Despite that, I think she's the bet in the race. Her form since last year's win has been okay, the worst rating in the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m) behind Jack D'Or and Panthalassa, which is good form and 2000m sees her out anyway.
When last seen she was solid behind Serifos and Danon The Kid which is some of the better mile form in Japan and conditions were deteriorating that day. Her best form is at a mile, she loves it at Tokyo and from all reports she's working very well. At around the $5 mark in Japan (no Australian markets at the moment), she looks a bet.
The interesting runner, and current favourite, is Stars On Earth. The Oaks and Guineas winner drops back to a mile for the first time in over a year, since she won the Guineas at Hanshin, running to 116.
Her peak of 120 came in the Oaks over 2400m and her two runs since, both over 2000m, have been rock solid. She flew home to just miss Jack D'or in The Osaka Hai (2000m) at Hanshin on her seasonal reappearance, running to 118 which will be highly competitive here.
The query is the drop in trip. Last start clearly suggested she wanted more ground, not less, and maybe she can settle closer from an inside draw here but she'll need some luck, and if Sodashi runs to what she did last year, Timeform suggests Stars On Earth will need a slight new peak.
Japan betting predictions have her the $2.10 favourite which is way too short in my opinion. If it were over 2000m she'd be the clear top pick, but over a mile, Sodashi should be much closer.
My third pick in the race would be Songline. She can be hit or miss, but her best win came in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen (1600m) at Tokyo against the boys, running to 120 when beating Schnell Meister and Salios which is handy mile form.
Easy to forgive her two runs since, one at 1200m and one in Saudi Arabia over 1350m, but she's met Sodashi twice for two comprehensive beatings with that Yasuda Kinen a bit of an outlier in her ratings. She can win if she runs to it but top four seems more likely on the bulk of her work.
Namur and Stunning Rose, like Stars On Earth, are newly turned four-year-olds, both with one run under their belt. Stunning Rose beat Namur and an unlucky Stars On Earth in the Group 1 Shuka Sho (2000m) but was just fair first up at Nakayama over 1800m, running to 114.
Namur was similarly okay first up at the course and distance running to 111. Interestingly the Japanese market has her third pick with Stunning Rose eighth pick. They've shown there's very little between them and Namur should be longer, with Stunning Rose perhaps a bit big at 25-1.
Namura Clair is the other one in the market. She's been sprinting of late with enigmatic results but did run third to Stars On Earth at three in the Guineas, albeit with every chance. She's a handy sprinter on her day but a mile remains a big query against the more seasoned mares now.
For all the hype, I think Sodashi is actually a bet to win another Victoria Mile. She's the out-and-out miler in the field and boasts the highest peak rating in the field. She's going to need a good ride from Lane but I'd have her close to equal favourite with Stars On Earth, who is a query dropping back to a mile and could need just as much luck from a sticky inside draw. Songline and Stunning Rose can fill the exotics, but we'll be cheering on the unicorn.
