3 minute read

Denied a second Doomben Cup last year, Zaaki is heavily favoured to make amends this year.

The Doomben Cup is really the race that made Zaaki. His seven-length romp in 2021 set tongues wagging with big speed ratings, although Timeform were a bit more measured, having him at 126 for that effort. For comparison, that's as high as Anamoe was ever rated, so it's still good enough to win nearly anything over 2000m in Australia.

That remains a career peak for Zaaki, but his consistency has been impressive. In 17 runs since that Doomben Cup win, the lowest rating he's posted was 111, ironically when beaten in this race last year at $1.24, although hardly disgraced, beaten 1.7 lengths in third.

His median rating since his 126 peak has been 121 and his mean 120.5, and therefore to put it very simply, he's a 50% chance of running to 121 every time he steps out.

He's come back well, perhaps not as well as in other campaigns when running to 123/124 first up, but second to Giga Kick running to 120 in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m) is obviously a good bit of form. He did plenty of work but still held his key rivals in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes (1800m) running to 119 and looks right on track to run his median rating on Saturday.

Therefore it comes down to what the others can do. The second highest rated horse in the field is, quite comfortably Duais. She's run to 120+ which, with her 2kg allowance, would probably beat Zaaki, but she's first up and her peak fresh rating is 109. She can do better than that here, but whether she can perform at her best is a query.

In behind her are the likes of Nonconformist (119), Huetor (118), Numerian (118), Zeyrek (118) and Atishu (117).

Huetor, Zeyrek and Atishu all come through the Hollindale. Huetor was potentially the one to take out of the race, closing off well for second but that was a new peak for him and would need Zaaki to run not only below his predicted rating, but even what he did last start.

Nonconformist has been solid this time in, but hasn't put up a performance that would win this in a while and he's been disappointing at his past two. He'd need to get back to his 2021 form when nosed out by Probabeel and second to Incentivise to be a chance. 

Atishu could win off her Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) win but that looks like an outlier for her and with her three next best ratings sitting at 110.

That leaves the three-year-old Kovalica, who was scratched from Saturday with a foot abscess. I can see why the market has him as second pick because he's progressive and brings different form, but he'd need to run a new peak by some 13 pounds, roughly around 4 lengths.

That seems highly unlikely given he's coming off a setback, drawn wide and all but guaranteed to go back to near last with his grand final in two weeks' time.

I think Zaaki is actually a fair price on Saturday. He ran an identical rating in last year's Hollindale and went around $1.24 in the Doomben Cup. Yes he was beaten, but that was easily his worst performance in that time and if he runs up to what I think he will, he probably deserves to be a shade of odds-on.

Black odds seem good odds with Huetor, Numerian and Duais for the minors.