Visually it was hard not to be taken by Masked Crusader's win last weekend, he bolted in.
Though once Monday morning rolled around it was very hard to match the visuals with the #Data.
Sure you're basic form rating had him running a new career peak, though the clock certainly wasn't red hot.
Yes he was eased down late, but even still my biggest concern was how he ran the 1200m.
While no exact science, always wary of horses coming out of races that are run at a negative split, that being the first half of the race is run quicker than the second half.
On Saturday Masked Crusader ran his first 600m ~9L faster than his last 600m, all from a standing start.
He now has to stretch that form to 1400m just seven days later.
Generally when looking for a horse stepping up in distance, you want to see them finishing fast over the shorter trip, Masked Crusader is doing the exact opposite.
No question he is talent/progressive, but everything we do at Racing and Sports suggests he is a horse you want to oppose, especially when they're odds-on.
Now it's all well and good finding a horse you want to take on, but you still need some ammo to get him beat and we couldn't ask for much more in Dawn Passage.
A dominant winner at the course and distance last start, Dawn Passage relished getting back onto a firmer surface and returned a new career peak in the process.
Rated 116 by Timeform, he is very well treated under the set-weights conditions and if able to hold his form, his rivals face a very stern task on Saturday.
I found it very hard not to mark Dawn Passage favourite, he already has the runs on the board, brings better form to the table and has a better set up.
Inglis 3YO Guineas Market:
Dawn Passage - $2.50
Masked Crusader - $3.00
Rocha Clock - $8.00
As illustrated above, I still have a positive view on Masked Crusader, just nowhere near as positive as the early market.
This year's Woodlands Stakes has seven last start winners engaged, of those more than happy to side with the Waterhouse & Bott trained Bellevue Star.
A handy winner at Canterbury last start over 1200m, she sets up well back to 1100m with the blinkers going on for the first time.
No better front-running rider than Tim Clark, if he gets his way in front, she should prove hard to run down.
Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:
Race 3 #6 Bellevue Star @ $9.50
Race 4 #1 Dawn Passage @ $3.00
Race 5 #9 Adelong @ $2.40