The feature on the card happens to be one of the deepest and most interesting betting races on the day and we find our best play there in the form of Fierce Impact.
There are a few more likely looking horses on the card. Schabau and Windstorm are two market leaders that hold terrific chances, but a touch too obviously so, and it's last year's Toorak and Cantala winner who gets the nod as he tries to complete the set of open-aged top-flight miles in Melbourne.
The most obvious reason to throw up in defence of finding Fierce Impact is that he is a pure miler which stands out against this field. Dalasan is perhaps the other that could be stamped a miler despite his attempts over further at the back of last season.
There is little doubt that he has the best form at the trip of those engaged, and he hits this at the right time of his prep which also stands out - particularly against those that having the ratings to beat him.
One of those is Russian Camelot. He's about as X-factor as horses get but seems well enough found in the early betting and so, with a strong return run under his belt, and having peaked in a very similar scenario at his past two campaigns, preference is for Fierce Impact who can be backed at 4-1 and perhaps a touch better than that between now and 3:35pm Saturday.
There are interesting options at each way prices all through the card. We threw up National Choice a couple of weeks ago and he makes the shortlist again at double figure odds, with Flemington and 1400m tipped to suit.
The stable continue to have a great run with their three-year-olds and have a couple of other strong chances in that race as well as the very talented Annavisto in the Danehill who got more than a cursory glance, but it's onto the last and Letzbeglam who gets the nod around the 8-1 mark.
The last is a hugely competitive listed sprint for fillies but Letzbeglam's Diamond Prelude win stands out as the fastest piece of form on offer and her run in the Diamond itself is easily excused (if it needs excusing).
She was 30-1 when she posted that winning figure, and she only beat the very beatable Muntaseera who was then thrashed by Minhaaj, so there a negative case can be made.
But Minhaaj's win (good enough to see her start 10-1 in the Slipper!) was strangely slow and we prefer to side with the clock. Parlophone's manners are a risk and her Adelaide win looked a little flattering and so perhaps it is Swats That who poses the biggest challenge to Letzbeglam. It's a challenge worth backing Letzbeglam to prove right up to.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #4 Fierce Impact @ $5.00
Each Way Play: Race 9 #3 Letzbeglam @ $9.00