3 minute read

Easily one of my favourite days of the year and in my eyes, it will always be Sydney's Spring Grand Final day.

Two Group 1 handicaps, the babies kick off and prior to the Everest, it was Sydney's biggest Spring sprint race, the Premiere.

The Epsom is one of my favourite races and one that I've had a bit of luck in, god bless He's Your Man getting the bob in 2014.

Though taking a line through Star Of The Seas, it's hard to suggest this year is an overly strong Epsom.

Great betting race, but when you consider Star Of The Seas was sent out 12-1 last year and 20-1 in the Doncaster, now a year on he is favourite and almost topweight, it highlights a lack of a star 4YO male.

The girls have definitely held up their side of the bargain, though had either Alligator Blood, Superstorm, Super Seth or Catalyst taken their place, which they usually would in past years, suddenly it is a belter of an Epsom.

Nonetheless the fact Star Of The Seas is favourite, emphasises just how well Rock is placed.

They both ran in the race last year, Star Of The Seas (12-1) finished 3rd, Rock (10-1) finished 5th, though there was only a length between them.

Fast forward 12 months, Star of The Seas rises 5.5kg, whereas Rock only goes up 1.5kg, a 4kg swing in his favour.

Following the same path as last year, though a key difference being Rock is now rated 117, whereas he ran 111 when winning the Cameron Handicap last year.

He hits the Epsom on the up and should be right at his peak fourth up.

The middle draw keeps him out of trouble and should allow Berry to blend into the race at the right time.

He is this year's weight horse and with even luck he should prove very hard to beat.

The Kris Lees trained Mugatoo has taken all before him this preparation and while everything has fallen nicely into place, it's still hard to not be impressed by what he has done.

He demoralised them in the Newcastle Cup last start and while paying the penalty for that win, I still feel he is very well placed.

Weights are obviously important, but they are only relative to your opposition.

It's not the amount that you carry that matters, but what you give away/receive.

Mugatoo gives weight away to all bar one of his rivals on Saturday, though when assessing Timeform weight adjusted ratings, he still looks well placed.

Whenever a horse is towards the top end of the handicap and still rates right there, it generally bodes very well for their chances.

They are simply just better than their opposition and while a swing in the weights may suggest they can turn the tables, more often than not the good horses just beat them again.

Drawn perfectly, he should get a lovely run and this has always been the first of his major Spring targets.

Rated 121+ by Timeform, very few horses in the last 20 years has gone into the Metropolitan rated as high off their last start.

Magic Hurricane was rated 119 prior to winning it 2015, he ran 119 in success.

Even luck, he wins again.

Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:

Race 4 #1 Fierce Impact @ $2.30

Race 7 #13 Rock @ $7.00

Race 8 #2 Mugatoo @ $3.00