3 minute read
Looks to be plenty of angles at Randwick on Saturday, first glance I thought it was only an average meeting, but the more I look into it, the more I like it.
Confident there are a few false favourites and while that doesn't mean we are going to win, we should at least get "good value" about our selections.
The Bondi Stakes sees Peltzer the early favourite, however when taking a line through the Stan Fox, it's hard to be confident he'll get a mile.
Only 0.7L separated the first four across the line there with Peltzer recording the equal slowest L200m of the race.
Prime Star conversely recorded the fastest L800m, L600m & 400m, he was also 2L faster than Peltzer the L200m.
He was finishing fast whereas Peltzer was stopping.
Off that run confident Prime Star is the more likely of the pair to run the mile and should be closer to Peltzer in the market for their rematch (last start $2.75 Vs $3.75).
The wide draw likely sees Prime Star get back again, which won't be easy, but he is on an upward spiral and should take plenty of benefit from his last run.
Asked to make the jump from 1200m to 1500m, it wasn't an ideal set up and to perform so well, you'd suspect he has more to offer.
The Brian Crowley Stakes is another event where the early market looks to be well out.
Both Destination and On The Lead bring the A1 form yet The Bopper opened up favourite.
Market has somewhat corrected itself with Destination now favourite, however expect The Bopper to keep drifting, he looks closer to a $7 chance on the bare form.
Destination and On The Lead both finished behind Wild Ruler in the lead up (different races), Destination was beaten 0.3L whereas On The Lead was beaten 2L.
First glance Destination looks the pick of the two, however when you dig deeper On The Lead's run had more merit.
He met Wild Ruler at level weights (Destination received 2kg), he also met him second up with Wild Ruler showing good improvement 110 > 116.
Yes On The Lead was beaten by further, but he ran 109+ in defeat whereas Destination ran 104+.
Have On The Lead marked favourite off that and hence more than happy to bet up at the early price.
Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:
Race 3 #2 On The Lead @ $4.60
Race 6 #2 Prime Star @ $3.70
Race 8 #5 Hilo @ $3.70
