3 minute read
The Caulfield Cup Carnival begins with Caulfield Guineas Day where the headline race is one of three Group One contests.
Anamoe versus Artorius versus their barriers is an interesting clash. Anamoe currently leads Artorius 2-1 head-to-head while barriers lead Anamoe 2-0.
The favourite is rated 120 by Timeform, which is above what it has taken to win the Guineas in recent times, and an outstanding Guineas profile overall but all things considered the top end looks priced up about right early doors. Where things get a bit more uncertain is who comes next.
The Golden Rose is the place to look in our view. Locally, the Prelude didn't rate highly and while the Stutt winner seems sure to develop into a nice horse he meets sharper tools this time and might be better equipped to challenge them later down the road.
Tiger Of Malay has been rock solid, and seems sure to run well again, but at twice his price Giannis seems too big and goes up as our each way play on the card.
He was never a threat in the Golden Rose but he was back in trip there and might have been just run off his feet a bit in a fast race. Anamoe and Artorius dropped him in the Rose - and seem patently more talented racehorses - but now he draws to be closer to the lead back at the mile where what is likely to be a more sedate pace should allow him to find his rhythm.
He trails Tiger Of Malay 2-3 head-to-head but it is probably significant that his two successes in that clash within a clash came the two times they have met beyond 1400m and a case can be made that it is Giannis that should be the next in line in betting behind the top two - prices bigger than 20/1 undersell him.
For our bet of the day we roll on to the last where Delphi looks ready to knock one off going to 2400m third up.
No digging around to make a case this time, Delphi seems a straightforward option; undone by a slow pace resuming then terrific when only edged out by a well-handicapped horse in the main lead up.
Two runs in Ireland beyond 2000m resulted in wins at listed and Group Three level and the Freedman yard's strike-rate improved from 10% first up to 19% third up. Throw in Damien Oliver and a good draw and what are you still doing reading this article? Go and bet...
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 10 #5 Delphi @ $3.80
Each Way Play: Race 8 # Giannis @ $26.00
