3 minute read
The Adelaide carnival rolls on with the Group 1 South Australian Derby headlining a big day.
Plenty of form lines converging in the SA Derby but I think the Chairman's is the one to follow, and from that race, the two that clearly make the most appeal are Loco and Red Sun Sensation.
Loco is probably the one with the biggest query at 2500m but he's definitely the one with the most upside and had the SP there. This is all in his first preparation but we're getting a price about him now and I have full faith in the Micks to have him right for this.
Red Sun Sensation won the Chairman's to run the more favoured pair down and is now a bigger price (admittedly in a field of more depth) despite winning the traditional lead up.
Happy enough to be against the Oaks form of She's Fit. She was the flashing light there but the race hasn't rated well and she's more or less held her rating for the past four starts now and nothing suggests she's going to spike here which she may need to.
That all said, they won't feature in the plays of the day, the honour of which goes to Lethal Thoughts in the Listed Adelaide Guineas (1600m).
He clearly comes through the strongest races having equalled his peak of 107 with Timeform when winning the Mornington Guineas last time out over Dashing, who won last Saturday. If he holds that level he's comfortably the one to beat, with the last three winners of the race rating 101, 102 and 100.
A few others have some upside and nice profiles but they'd have to improve many lengths to be winning, and I marked him even money. Having J Allen on for Ciaron Maher & David Eustace doesn't hurt either.
The each-way play comes up a bit earlier with Manhatten Times in Race 4. He was awful first up in the Group 3 Irwin Stakes (1100m) but went right back to last and couldn't get into the race.
He drops back to a benchmark 82 here and anything near his best figures go awfully close to winning this. He hasn't managed to win a stakes race but has placed at listed, group 3 and group 2 level with multiple ratings over 100, all over 1200m.
He's re-united with regular jockey Jason Holder who can settle in front of a couple from the middle gate and as much as $7 being bet at fifth place in the market seems big for what is comfortably the highest rated horse in the field.
SAY FROM SA
Bet of the day: Race 8 #1 Lethal Thoughts @ $2.70
Each-way play: Race 4 #2 Manhatten Times @ $7/2.15
